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HODLVanEck Bitcoin ETF

Options Analysis Report•COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS
AUM $1.2B|BATS
● 2026-08-31$21.91
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y -30.1%YTD -13.6%7D -1.7%
17
30D
±11.9%
6%

HODL Options Overview

bullish flow. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

4.6VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn
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HODL Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

5.2
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 63.9% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.04x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 80% — above sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 1.04x — flat

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 40.1% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 141.1% (ATM 40.1% + spread 50.5% + bias) — expensive

<3.0%

Total drag 77.16% (spread 50.49% + slippage 26.67%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 0.83 (vega 4.176 / spread 50.49%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

4.5
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -58%, Raw: -47%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -58% (strong bearish) — Raw: -47%

≥15%

|OI skew| 60.5% — call-heavy

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +88.2%, OI skew +60.5% — aligned

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +0%, ATM: +0%, OTM: -47% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 4% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

4.2
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 0.4x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 2.4% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +8.8% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 51% — neutral vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

≥60%

Aggressive execution 60% — urgent

≥30

Conviction -58 (bearish) — strong conviction

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

2.2
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 50.5% — wide

≥10,000

OI 714 — thin

≥500

Volume 17/day — thin

≤$0.50

$2.52 to cross — expensive

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 84% — much wider than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 529.8 contracts (bid:132.2 ask:397.6) — deep

<1.0%

Avg slippage 26.67% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.0
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope +4.3% — flat/unclear

<30 or >70

IV percentile 64% — neutral

≥10pts kink

IV kink 2.0pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 313.95 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -58% @ 76% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls5.8
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.1
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.5
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call4.9
bearishIV fair, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on HODL

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