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HOGHarley-Davidson, Inc.

Options Analysis Report•MOTORCYCLES, BICYCLES & PARTS
Market Cap $2.9B|NYSE
● 2026-08-31$28.10
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y -4.1%YTD +36.1%7D -0.7%
1,075
30D
±10.8%
6%

HOG Options Overview

Mixed signals. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

5.8VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn
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HOG Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

6.9
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 62.2% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.99x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 49% — below sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.94x — contango

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 39.0% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 65.1% (ATM 39.0% + spread 13.0% + bias) — fair

<3.0%

Total drag 19.51% (spread 13.04% + slippage 6.47%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 2.05 (vega 2.671 / spread 13.04%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

6.5
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +82%, Raw: +66%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +82% (strong bullish) — Raw: +66%

≥15%

|OI skew| 6.6% — balanced

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -68.0%, OI skew -6.6% — aligned

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +25%, ATM: +94%, OTM: -14% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 93% — very bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

4.9
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 1.0x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 2.4% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +13.2% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 57% — neutral vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 60% — heavy institutional

≥60%

Aggressive execution 20% — patient

≥30

Conviction +82 (bullish) — strong conviction

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.1
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 13.0% — wide

≥10,000

OI 44,947 — adequate

≥500

Volume 1,075/day — adequate

≤$0.50

$0.65 to cross — expensive

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 72% — wider than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 246.7 contracts (bid:133.0 ask:113.7) — adequate

<1.0%

Avg slippage 6.47% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.5
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope -6.4% — contango

<30 or >70

IV percentile 62% — neutral

≥10pts kink

IV kink -1.0pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 116.12 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +82% @ 91% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)

≥40 composite score

Score 90 (ITM 20% + inst 60%) — HIGH institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls6.3
bullishIV cheap, bullish flow
Long Puts5.2
bearishIV cheap, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.0
bullishIV too cheap, bullish flow
Covered Call3.9
bearishIV too cheap, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on HOG

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