Options/MPC

MPCMARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION

Options Analysis Report•PETROLEUM REFINING

Market Cap $103.6B|NYSE

● 2026-08-31$368.83

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y +104.7%YTD +123.3%7D +1.7%

Options Vol

5,222

30D

Implied Move

±12.0%

IV Rank

35%

MPC Options Overview

IV is elevated. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn

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MPC Gamma Walls

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MPC Hedge Radar

Neutral

Full Hedge Radar

Neither score is at an extreme today. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where MPC sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.92) — downside puts carry 0.3 IV points more than at-the-money, and near-dated vol is priced 6% below far-dated, measured against this name's own rolling 14-trading-day realized moves (490 overlapping windows). Fragility reads neutral (4.17): it is trading 5% above its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

2.92/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

4.17/ 10neutral

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

4.7

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 86.9% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.02x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 90% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.94x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 43.6% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 55.5% (ATM 43.6% + spread 6.0% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 9.46% (spread 5.95% + slippage 3.51%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 150.71 (vega 89.670 / spread 5.95%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

5.2

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +25%, Raw: +16%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +25% (bullish) — Raw: +16%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 8.7% — balanced

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -48.0%, OI skew +8.7% — divergent (opposite)

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +43%, ATM: -1%, OTM: +15% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 91% — very bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

4.6

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.8x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 6.6% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +11.4% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 86% — very active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 24% — mixed

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 32% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +25 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.7

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 6.0% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 78,945 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 5,222/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.30 to cross — cheap

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 91% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 52.0 contracts (bid:22.2 ask:29.8) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 3.51% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.5

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks8/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -5.9% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 87% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -2.1pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 581.14 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +25% @ 62% consistency — moderate (bullish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 54 (ITM 20% + inst 24%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.3

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Long Puts5.1

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.5

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Covered Call5.3

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on MPC

MPC gamma walls MPC max pain MPC IV rank MPC options flow