AInvestOption Pilot Program
Options/MSTX
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MSTXTidal Trust II Defiance Daily Target 2x Long MSTR ETF

Options Analysis Report
AUM $260M|NASDAQ
● 2026-08-31$13.87
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y -94.5%YTD -66.1%7D +5.5%
13,682
30D
±37.9%
9%

MSTX Options Overview

IV is elevated with bullish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

5.7VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn
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MSTX Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

4.5
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 98.4% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.84x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 99% — above sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.94x — contango

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 130.9% — crisis-level IV

<80%

Effective IV 176.9% (ATM 130.9% + spread 23.0% + bias) — expensive

<3.0%

Total drag 32.46% (spread 23.01% + slippage 9.45%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 0.57 (vega 1.308 / spread 23.01%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

6.2
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksNeutral - Strong signal (Conviction: -8%, Raw: -3%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -8% (neutral) — Raw: -3%

≥15%

|OI skew| 37.0% — call-heavy

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +42.0%, OI skew +37.0% — aligned

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -8%, ATM: -29%, OTM: +4% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 17% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

6.8
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks5/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 1.8x avg — elevated

≥15%

Vol/OI 19.9% — high turnover

≥2 days

2 day(s) elevated — sustained

≥5%

OI change +24.0% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 91% — very active vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 29% — mixed

≥60%

Aggressive execution 28% — patient

≥30

Conviction -8 (bearish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.4
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 23.0% — wide

≥10,000

OI 68,773 — deep

≥500

Volume 13,682/day — active

≤$0.50

$1.15 to cross — expensive

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 99% — much wider than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 1,617.1 contracts (bid:825.1 ask:792.0) — deep

<1.0%

Avg slippage 9.45% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.7
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope -5.9% — contango

<30 or >70

IV percentile 98% — seller opportunity

≥10pts kink

IV kink -3.0pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 33.53 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -8% @ 54% consistency — unclear

≥40 composite score

Score 59 (ITM 20% + inst 29%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls6.3
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Long Puts4.6
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.6
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Covered Call4.8
bearishIV fair, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on MSTX

MSTX gamma wallsMSTX max painMSTX IV rankMSTX options flow