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NAILDirexion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF

Options Analysis Report
AUM $517M|ARCX
● 2026-08-31$36.18
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y -55.3%YTD -29.7%7D -10.8%
7,015
30D
±22.3%
9%

NAIL Options Overview

IV is elevated with unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

5.2VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn
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NAIL Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

5.2
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 91.6% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.85x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 95% — above sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.81x — contango

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 76.5% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 119.2% (ATM 76.5% + spread 21.4% + bias) — expensive

<3.0%

Total drag 31.39% (spread 21.35% + slippage 10.04%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 1.40 (vega 2.991 / spread 21.35%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

5.4
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +15%, Raw: +14%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +15% (bullish) — Raw: +14%

≥15%

|OI skew| 15.8% — call-heavy

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -6.9%, OI skew +15.8% — divergent (opposite)

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +11%, ATM: -17%, OTM: +24% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 89% — very bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

5.0
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 1.3x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 12.5% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +16.7% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 86% — very active vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 11% — mostly retail

≥60%

Aggressive execution 29% — patient

≥30

Conviction +15 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.2
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 21.4% — wide

≥10,000

OI 56,288 — deep

≥500

Volume 7,015/day — active

≤$0.50

$1.07 to cross — expensive

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 96% — much wider than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 185.9 contracts (bid:108.2 ask:77.7) — adequate

<1.0%

Avg slippage 10.04% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.4
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope -18.7% — contango

<30 or >70

IV percentile 92% — seller opportunity

≥10pts kink

IV kink -10.4pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 47.70 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +15% @ 57% consistency — unclear

≥40 composite score

Score 41 (ITM 20% + inst 11%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls5.3
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.0
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.1
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call4.8
bearishIV fair, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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