Options/PAYX

PAYXPaychex Inc

Options Analysis Report•SERVICES-ENGINEERING, ACCOUNTING, RESEARCH, MANAGEMENT

Market Cap $45.2B|NASDAQ

● 2026-08-31$127.04

BULLISH

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y -6.6%YTD +17.0%7D +0.8%

Options Vol

925

30D

Implied Move

±7.6%

IV Rank

19%

PAYX Options Overview

bullish flow. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn

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PAYX Gamma Walls

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PAYX Hedge Radar

No action needed

Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads low; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where PAYX sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (3.69) — the move being priced is 1.53x this name's own median 21-trading-day move, and downside puts carry 2.2 IV points more than at-the-money, measured against this name's own rolling 21-trading-day realized moves (483 overlapping windows). Fragility reads resilient (2.5): it is trading 17% above its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

3.69/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

2.50/ 10resilient

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

6.1

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 57.4% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.29x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 62% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.84x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 31.8% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 55.2% (ATM 31.8% + spread 11.7% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 14.51% (spread 11.68% + slippage 2.83%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 37.07 (vega 43.299 / spread 11.68%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

8.3

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +52%, Raw: +48%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +52% (strong bullish) — Raw: +48%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 17.4% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +63.7%, OI skew +17.4% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +50%, ATM: +36%, OTM: +49% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 20% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.4

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.8x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 2.0% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +6.7% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 33% — below sector avg

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 24% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +52 (bullish) — strong conviction

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.3

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 11.7% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 46,700 — adequate

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 925/day — adequate

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.58 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 63% — wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 79.4 contracts (bid:43.8 ask:35.6) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 2.83% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.1

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -16.4% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 57% — neutral

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -6.4pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 1850.37 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: Earnings in 29d (low risk)

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +52% @ 76% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls7.5

bullishIV cheap, bullish flow

Long Puts4.3

bearishIV cheap, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.8

bullishIV too cheap, bullish flow

Covered Call3.5

bearishIV too cheap, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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