IV is elevated with bullish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 98.9% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 0.94x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 94% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.11x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 87.4% — crisis-level IV
Effective IV 99.8% (ATM 87.4% + spread 6.2% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 8.59% (spread 6.20% + slippage 2.39%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 6.20 (vega 3.846 / spread 6.20%) — acceptable
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +10% (neutral) — Raw: +12%
|OI skew| 6.2% — balanced
Vol skew +56.3%, OI skew +6.2% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +7%, ATM: +12%, OTM: +12% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 12% — very bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.5x avg — normal
Vol/OI 6.6% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -3.8% (5d) — unwinding
Sector activity percentile 60% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 32% — institutional presence
Aggressive execution 46% — patient
Conviction +10 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 6.2% — wide
OI 2,371,643 — deep
Volume 157,270/day — active
$0.31 to cross — cheap
1 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 94% — much wider than sector
Depth 378.3 contracts (bid:218.0 ask:160.3) — adequate
Avg slippage 2.39% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +10.7% — backwardation
IV percentile 99% — seller opportunity
IV kink 10.7pts — event priced
θ/ν ratio 43.46 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
caution advised: CPI in 1d (HIGH)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +10% @ 55% consistency — unclear
Score 62 (ITM 20% + inst 32%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.