Options/TBF

TBFProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF

Options Analysis Report

AUM $113M|ARCX

● 2026-08-31$25.26

VERY BULLISH

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y +1.6%YTD +4.6%7D -0.4%

Options Vol

30D

Implied Move

±4.3%

IV Rank

16%

TBF Options Overview

IV is low with bullish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for option buyers

Learn

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TBF Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

7.7

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 3.5% — cheap vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.99x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 6% — below sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 1.17x — backwardation

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 11.5% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 53.2% (ATM 11.5% + spread 20.8% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 31.25% (spread 20.83% + slippage 10.42%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 2.43 (vega 5.066 / spread 20.83%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

10.0

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +100%, Raw: +100%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +100% (strong bullish) — Raw: +100%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 63.7% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +100.0%, OI skew +63.7% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +100%, ATM: +0%, OTM: +0% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 50% — neutral vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.5

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.0x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 0.2% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +18.5% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 6% — quiet vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 100% — highly urgent

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +100 (bullish) — strong conviction

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

2.7

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 20.8% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 1,241 — thin

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 2/day — thin

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$1.04 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 29% — tighter than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 113.0 contracts (bid:111.0 ask:2.0) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 10.42% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.2

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope +17.3% — backwardation

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 4% — buyer opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink 1.4pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 1369.11 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +100% @ 100% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls8.6

bullishIV cheap, bullish flow

Long Puts4.2

bearishIV cheap, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.8

bullishIV too cheap, bullish flow

Covered Call2.3

bearishIV too cheap, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on TBF

TBF gamma walls TBF max pain TBF IV rank TBF options flow