AInvestOption Pilot Program
Options/UBT
U

UBTProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury

Options Analysis Report
AUM $64M|ARCX
● 2026-08-31$15.06
VERY BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y -7.0%YTD -8.8%7D +0.6%
535
30D
±6.0%
30%

UBT Options Overview

bullish flow with unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

5.8VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for option buyers

Learn
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UBT Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

5.6
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 38.9% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.22x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 59% — above sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.70x — contango

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 27.2% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 84.4% (ATM 27.2% + spread 28.6% + bias) — expensive

<3.0%

Total drag 39.09% (spread 28.62% + slippage 10.47%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 0.76 (vega 2.174 / spread 28.62%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

7.4
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +25%, Raw: +24%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +25% (bullish) — Raw: +24%

≥15%

|OI skew| 89.1% — call-heavy

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +99.3%, OI skew +89.1% — aligned

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +30%, ATM: -92%, OTM: +0% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 0% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

6.1
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 3.6x avg — hot

≥15%

Vol/OI 10.7% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +4.9% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 84% — very active vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

≥60%

Aggressive execution 40% — patient

≥30

Conviction +25 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

2.7
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 28.6% — wide

≥10,000

OI 5,003 — thin

≥500

Volume 535/day — adequate

≤$0.50

$1.43 to cross — expensive

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 69% — wider than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 528.3 contracts (bid:285.8 ask:242.5) — deep

<1.0%

Avg slippage 10.47% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.0
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope -29.5% — contango

<30 or >70

IV percentile 39% — neutral

≥10pts kink

IV kink -6.4pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 426.24 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +25% @ 63% consistency — moderate (bullish)

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls6.0
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Long Puts4.3
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.5
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Covered Call3.8
bearishIV fair, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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