Options/ULTA

ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock

Options Analysis Report•RETAIL-RETAIL STORES, NEC

Market Cap $22.1B|NASDAQ

● 2026-08-31$517.50

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y -2.8%YTD -16.5%7D -3.9%

Options Vol

13,694

30D

Implied Move

±9.4%

IV Rank

ULTA Options Overview

unusual activity. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn

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ULTA Gamma Walls

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ULTA Hedge Radar

Neutral

Full Hedge Radar

Neither score is at an extreme today. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where ULTA sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.02) — downside puts carry 0.7 IV points more than at-the-money, and implied vol sits in the 6th percentile of its own past year, measured against this name's own rolling 19-trading-day realized moves (485 overlapping windows). Fragility reads neutral (5.6): it is trading 2% below its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

2.02/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

5.60/ 10neutral

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

7.3

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 63.4% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.76x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 57% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.99x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 33.2% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 84.8% (ATM 33.2% + spread 25.8% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 37.83% (spread 25.79% + slippage 12.04%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 68.61 (vega 176.952 / spread 25.79%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

4.7

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksNeutral - Weak signal (Conviction: -8%, Raw: -5%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -8% (neutral) — Raw: -5%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 0.4% — balanced

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -3.5%, OI skew +0.4% — divergent (opposite)

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -21%, ATM: -12%, OTM: +1% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 68% — bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

6.4

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks5/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 2.2x avg — hot

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 21.1% — high turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

2 day(s) elevated — sustained

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +30.7% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 94% — very active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 18% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -8 (bearish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.2

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 25.8% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 65,063 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 13,694/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$1.29 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 60% — wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 30.1 contracts (bid:14.0 ask:16.1) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 12.04% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.5

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks4/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -1.1% — flat/unclear

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 63% — neutral

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink 3.4pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 1247.02 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -8% @ 54% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.7

bullishIV cheap, mixed flow

Long Puts5.9

bearishIV cheap, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.1

bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow

Covered Call4.3

bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on ULTA

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