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XARState Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF

Options Analysis Report
AUM $6.1B|ARCX
● 2026-08-31$261.79
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y +20.2%YTD +4.5%7D -1.4%
100
30D
±7.9%
27%

XAR Options Overview

bullish flow. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

5.3VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for option buyers

Learn
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XAR Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

6.0
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 45.9% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.03x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 66% — above sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.90x — contango

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 30.2% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 110.9% (ATM 30.2% + spread 40.4% + bias) — expensive

<3.0%

Total drag 56.66% (spread 40.35% + slippage 16.31%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 9.34 (vega 37.696 / spread 40.35%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

7.0
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +39%, Raw: +41%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +39% (strong bullish) — Raw: +41%

≥15%

|OI skew| 27.5% — put-heavy

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +72.0%, OI skew -27.5% — divergent (opposite)

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +0%, ATM: -43%, OTM: +70% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 8% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.7
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 0.3x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 1.2% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +147.4% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 34% — below sector avg

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

≥60%

Aggressive execution 64% — urgent

≥30

Conviction +39 (bullish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

2.6
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 40.4% — wide

≥10,000

OI 8,410 — thin

≥500

Volume 100/day — thin

≤$0.50

$2.02 to cross — expensive

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 74% — wider than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 145.4 contracts (bid:102.4 ask:43.0) — adequate

<1.0%

Avg slippage 16.31% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.0
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope -10.1% — contango

<30 or >70

IV percentile 46% — neutral

≥10pts kink

IV kink -3.1pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 248.16 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +39% @ 68% consistency — moderate (bullish)

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls6.0
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Long Puts4.6
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.2
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Covered Call3.8
bearishIV fair, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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