Options/ALK

ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.

Options Analysis Report•AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED

Market Cap $4.7B|NYSE

● 2026-08-31$42.32

VERY BULLISH

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y -32.4%YTD -17.9%7D +1.8%

Options Vol

6,186

30D

Implied Move

±13.4%

IV Rank

34%

ALK Options Overview

IV is elevated with bullish flow and unusual activity. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn

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ALK Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

5.5

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 77.7% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.04x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 80% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.90x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 51.6% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 66.6% (ATM 51.6% + spread 7.5% + bias) — fair

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 10.39% (spread 7.52% + slippage 2.87%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 8.19 (vega 6.156 / spread 7.52%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

9.0

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +71%, Raw: +67%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +71% (strong bullish) — Raw: +67%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 26.3% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +86.8%, OI skew +26.3% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +72%, ATM: +26%, OTM: +68% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 10% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

6.0

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks4/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 1.5x avg — elevated

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 6.7% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +4.9% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 89% — very active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 56% — heavy institutional

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 43% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +71 (bullish) — strong conviction

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.3

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks4/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 7.5% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 92,530 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 6,186/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.38 to cross — cheap

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 88% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 367.0 contracts (bid:164.9 ask:202.1) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 2.87% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

8.0

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks8/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -9.8% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 78% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -4.8pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 176.38 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +71% @ 86% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 86 (ITM 20% + inst 56%) — HIGH institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls6.9

bullishIV fair, bullish flow

Long Puts4.1

bearishIV fair, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put6.6

bullishIV fair, bullish flow

Covered Call3.8

bearishIV fair, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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