Options/AVAV

AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.

Options Analysis Report•AIRCRAFT

Market Cap $7.5B|NASDAQ

● 2026-08-31$147.94

BULLISH

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y -38.4%YTD -42.3%7D -0.2%

Options Vol

7,447

30D

Implied Move

±23.3%

IV Rank

20%

AVAV Options Overview

IV is elevated with bullish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

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AVAV Gamma Walls

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AVAV Hedge Radar

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Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads high; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where AVAV sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.25) — downside puts carry 0.2 IV points LESS than at-the-money, and near-dated vol is priced 18% below far-dated, measured against this name's own rolling 19-trading-day realized moves (485 overlapping windows). Fragility reads fragile (7.5): it is trading 12% below its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

2.25/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

7.50/ 10fragile

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

5.1

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 88.8% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.98x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 92% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.82x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 69.4% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 103.7% (ATM 69.4% + spread 17.2% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 24.97% (spread 17.17% + slippage 7.80%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 6.63 (vega 11.392 / spread 17.17%) — acceptable

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

7.0

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +16%, Raw: +21%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +16% (bullish) — Raw: +21%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 19.8% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +30.0%, OI skew +19.8% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +19%, ATM: -2%, OTM: +32% — bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 42% — bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

5.1

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 1.4x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 11.3% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +15.4% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 95% — very active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 10% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 29% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +16 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.3

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 17.2% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 65,978 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 7,447/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.86 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 95% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 120.39999999999999 contracts (bid:53.8 ask:66.6) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 7.80% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.9

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -17.6% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 89% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -15.8pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 29.84 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

acceptable: Earnings in 9d

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +16% @ 58% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 40 (ITM 20% + inst 10%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls6.6

bullishIV fair, bullish flow

Long Puts4.3

bearishIV fair, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.6

bullishIV fair, bullish flow

Covered Call4.2

bearishIV fair, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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