BTUPeabody Energy Corporation
Options Analysis Report•BITUMINOUS COAL & LIGNITE SURFACE MINING
Market Cap $3.4B|NYSE
● 2026-06-09$28.19
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-06-08 EOD data
1Y +109.4%YTD -8.1%7D -4.8%
Options Vol
7,098
30D
Implied Move
±18.9%
IV Rank
45%
BTU Options Overview
IV is elevated with bearish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.8
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 81.2% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 0.91x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 79% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.08x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 66.5% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 87.7% (ATM 66.5% + spread 10.6% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 17.60% (spread 10.60% + slippage 7.00%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 7.39 (vega 7.834 / spread 10.60%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
4.4
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -45%, Raw: -40%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -45% (strong bearish) — Raw: -40%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 22.7% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +0.3%, OI skew +22.7% — weak (same direction)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +19%, ATM: +31%, OTM: -48% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 76% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.1
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.6x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 4.2% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +2.1% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 86% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 43% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 35% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -45 (bearish) — moderate
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.0
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 10.6% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 167,319 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 7,098/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.53 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 87% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 183.60000000000002 contracts (bid:117.2 ask:66.4) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 7.00% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.5
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +7.7% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 81% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 5.5pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 544.02 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations4 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)caution advised: No earnings detected; CPI in 1d (HIGH)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -45% @ 73% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 73 (ITM 20% + inst 43%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls4.9
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.4
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.0
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call5.4
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.