Options/BURL

BURLBURLINGTON STORES, INC.

Options Analysis Report•RETAIL-DEPARTMENT STORES

Market Cap $17.1B|NYSE

● 2026-08-31$272.95

BEARISH

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y -5.7%YTD -8.5%7D -17.4%

Options Vol

4,622

30D

Implied Move

±9.8%

IV Rank

BURL Options Overview

bearish flow with unusual activity. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn

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BURL Gamma Walls

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BURL Hedge Radar

Hedge window open

Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads high; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where BURL sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.42) — downside puts carry 1.3 IV points LESS than at-the-money, and implied vol sits in the 3th percentile of its own past year, measured against this name's own rolling 19-trading-day realized moves (485 overlapping windows). Fragility reads fragile (7.5): it is trading 16% below its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

2.42/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

7.50/ 10fragile

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

7.8

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 53.7% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.87x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 30% — below sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.94x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 34.2% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 60.7% (ATM 34.2% + spread 13.3% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 18.76% (spread 13.26% + slippage 5.50%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 19.28 (vega 25.571 / spread 13.26%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

2.2

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -38%, Raw: -26%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -38% (strong bearish) — Raw: -26%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 59.7% — put-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -41.4%, OI skew -59.7% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -6%, ATM: -22%, OTM: -34% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 87% — very bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

5.5

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 1.2x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 8.5% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +52.6% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 87% — very active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 26% — mixed

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 25% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -38 (bearish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.1

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 13.3% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 54,200 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 4,622/day — adequate

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.66 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 61% — wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 27.0 contracts (bid:16.2 ask:10.8) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 5.50% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.2

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -6.1% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 54% — neutral

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink 0.8pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 113.15 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -38% @ 69% consistency — moderate (bearish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 56 (ITM 20% + inst 26%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.1

bullishIV cheap, bearish flow

Long Puts7.9

bearishIV cheap, bearish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put3.1

bullishIV too cheap, bearish flow

Covered Call5.1

bearishIV too cheap, bearish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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