Options/BWXT

BWXTBWX Technologies, Inc.

Options Analysis Report•ENGINES & TURBINES

Market Cap $14.0B|NYSE

● 2026-08-31$152.85

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y -4.5%YTD -15.9%7D +2.2%

Options Vol

670

30D

Implied Move

±11.5%

IV Rank

BWXT Options Overview

Mixed signals. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

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BWXT Gamma Walls

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BWXT Hedge Radar

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Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads high; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where BWXT sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.31) — near-dated vol is priced 11% below far-dated, and downside puts carry 1.6 IV points more than at-the-money, measured against this name's own rolling 16-trading-day realized moves (488 overlapping windows). Fragility reads fragile (6.93): it is trading 8% below its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

2.31/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

6.93/ 10fragile

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

6.4

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 67.1% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.24x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 63% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.93x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 42.8% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 68.9% (ATM 42.8% + spread 13.0% + bias) — fair

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 17.52% (spread 13.03% + slippage 4.49%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 21.82 (vega 28.432 / spread 13.03%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

5.1

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -38%, Raw: -24%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -38% (strong bearish) — Raw: -24%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 30.4% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +27.5%, OI skew +30.4% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -48%, ATM: -61%, OTM: -12% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 43% — bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

4.0

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.5x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 3.2% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +21.7% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 72% — active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 22% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -38 (bearish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.0

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 13.0% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 20,842 — adequate

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 670/day — adequate

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.65 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 77% — wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 72.2 contracts (bid:34.0 ask:38.2) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 4.49% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.4

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -7.2% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 67% — neutral

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -2.9pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 320.91 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -38% @ 69% consistency — moderate (bearish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.6

bullishIV cheap, mixed flow

Long Puts5.5

bearishIV cheap, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.6

bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow

Covered Call4.5

bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on BWXT

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