CENXCentury Aluminum Co
Options Analysis Report•PRIMARY PRODUCTION OF ALUMINUM
Market Cap $6.3B|NASDAQ
● 2026-06-09$63.30
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-06-08 EOD data
1Y +214.6%YTD +54.6%7D -8.0%
Options Vol
4,434
30D
Implied Move
±23.3%
IV Rank
61%
CENX Options Overview
bullish flow with unusual activity. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.3
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 50.0% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.00x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 50% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.97x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.00x — normal
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 0.0% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 65.1% (ATM 0.0% + spread 32.5% + bias) — fair
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 41.06% (spread 32.54% + slippage 8.52%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 0.00 (vega 0.000 / spread 32.54%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
7.3
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +22%, Raw: +20%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +22% (bullish) — Raw: +20%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 46.2% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +84.6%, OI skew +46.2% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -14%, ATM: +77%, OTM: +20% — bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 16% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
5.2
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.6x avg — elevated
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 9.0% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +1.3% (5d) — stable
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 93% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 68% — heavy institutional
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 23% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +22 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.7
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 32.5% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 49,387 — adequate
Active Volume
≥500Volume 4,434/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$1.63 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 0% — much tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 180.0 contracts (bid:113.8 ask:66.2) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 8.52% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
5.3
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -2.6% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 50% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -1.1pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1.00 — favors mixed
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations4 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)caution advised: No earnings detected; CPI in 1d (HIGH)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +22% @ 61% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 98 (ITM 20% + inst 68%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.8
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Long Puts4.2
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.5
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Covered Call3.9
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.