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CHDNChurchill Downs Inc

Options Analysis Report•SERVICES-RACING, INCLUDING TRACK OPERATION
Market Cap $6.3B|NASDAQ
● 2026-08-31$89.90
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y -11.9%YTD -19.7%7D -0.9%
290
30D
±8.2%
6%

CHDN Options Overview

bullish flow. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

5.6VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn
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CHDN Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

7.6
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 54.0% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.11x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 31% — below sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.78x — contango

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 34.3% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 78.8% (ATM 34.3% + spread 22.2% + bias) — fair

<3.0%

Total drag 28.86% (spread 22.24% + slippage 6.62%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 8.83 (vega 19.644 / spread 22.24%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

6.9
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +36%, Raw: +38%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +36% (strong bullish) — Raw: +38%

≥15%

|OI skew| 79.4% — put-heavy

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +65.5%, OI skew -79.4% — divergent (opposite)

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +0%, ATM: +44%, OTM: +33% — bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 18% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.5
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 0.9x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 0.7% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +1.0% (5d) — stable

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 28% — below sector avg

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

≥60%

Aggressive execution 70% — urgent

≥30

Conviction +36 (bullish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

2.7
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 22.2% — wide

≥10,000

OI 39,650 — adequate

≥500

Volume 290/day — thin

≤$0.50

$1.11 to cross — expensive

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 62% — wider than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 39.8 contracts (bid:23.5 ask:16.3) — thin

<1.0%

Avg slippage 6.62% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.2
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope -22.3% — contango

<30 or >70

IV percentile 54% — neutral

≥10pts kink

IV kink -6.3pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 542.66 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +36% @ 68% consistency — moderate (bullish)

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls7.5
bullishIV cheap, bullish flow
Long Puts5.2
bearishIV cheap, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.7
bullishIV too cheap, bullish flow
Covered Call3.4
bearishIV too cheap, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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