Options/MFG

MFGMizuho Financial Group, Inc. American Depositary Shares (Each representing one-fifth of an Ordinary Share)

Options Analysis Report

Market Cap $129.3B|NYSE

● 2026-08-31$10.64

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y +62.9%YTD +43.6%7D +4.0%

Options Vol

30D

Implied Move

±8.6%

IV Rank

26%

MFG Options Overview

Mixed signals. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn

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MFG Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

5.7

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 50.0% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.00x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 50% — below sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 1.00x — flat

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.00x — normal

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 0.0% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 110.5% (ATM 0.0% + spread 55.3% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 76.53% (spread 55.27% + slippage 21.26%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 0.00 (vega 0.000 / spread 55.27%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

4.3

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -56%, Raw: -60%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -56% (strong bearish) — Raw: -60%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 41.0% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +11.1%, OI skew +41.0% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -33%, ATM: +0%, OTM: -100% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 25% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

2.4

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.1x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 0.5% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +3.1% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 19% — quiet vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 14% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -56 (bearish) — strong conviction

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

2.9

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 55.3% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 1,712 — thin

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 9/day — thin

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$2.76 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 0% — much tighter than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 106.19999999999999 contracts (bid:90.6 ask:15.6) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 21.26% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

5.9

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks4/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope +0.0% — flat/unclear

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 50% — neutral

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink 0.0pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 1.00 — favors mixed

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -56% @ 80% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls4.8

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Long Puts5.3

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.2

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Covered Call4.8

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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