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MSFUDirexion Shares ETF Trust Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 2X ETF

Options Analysis Report
AUM $613M|NASDAQ
2026-08-31$39.22
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y -22.0%YTD -1.0%7D +6.3%
2,870
30D
±13.5%
5%

MSFU Options Overview

IV is elevated with bullish flow and unusual activity. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

5.3VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

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MSFU Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

6.0
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 79.5% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.03x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 88% — above sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.79x — contango

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 53.8% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 74.9% (ATM 53.8% + spread 10.6% + bias) — fair

<3.0%

Total drag 13.92% (spread 10.55% + slippage 3.37%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 5.54 (vega 5.844 / spread 10.55%) — acceptable

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

6.1
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -12%, Raw: -16%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -12% (bearish) — Raw: -16%

≥15%

|OI skew| 43.1% — call-heavy

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +37.3%, OI skew +43.1% — aligned

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +10%, ATM: -18%, OTM: -27% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 18% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.3
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 0.6x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 9.5% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +3.1% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 83% — very active vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 7% — mostly retail

≥60%

Aggressive execution 23% — patient

≥30

Conviction -12 (bearish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.7
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 10.6% — wide

≥10,000

OI 30,088 — adequate

≥500

Volume 2,870/day — adequate

≤$0.50

$0.53 to cross — expensive

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 91% — much wider than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 1,001.0 contracts (bid:643.9 ask:357.1) — deep

<1.0%

Avg slippage 3.37% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.3
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope -21.1% — contango

<30 or >70

IV percentile 80% — seller opportunity

≥10pts kink

IV kink -7.0pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 212.51 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -12% @ 56% consistency — unclear

≥40 composite score

Score 37 (ITM 20% + inst 7%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls5.9
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Long Puts5.1
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.2
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Covered Call4.4
bearishIV fair, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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