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MURMurphy Oil Corp.

Options Analysis Report•CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS
Market Cap $5.1B|NYSE
● 2026-08-31$35.63
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y +37.6%YTD +9.7%7D -1.0%
40
30D
±11.1%
8%

MUR Options Overview

Mixed signals. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

4.8VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn
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MUR Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

6.7
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 67.3% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.75x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 61% — above sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.90x — contango

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 42.9% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 77.9% (ATM 42.9% + spread 17.5% + bias) — fair

<3.0%

Total drag 26.65% (spread 17.52% + slippage 9.13%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 1.88 (vega 3.300 / spread 17.52%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

5.0
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -41%, Raw: -37%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -41% (strong bearish) — Raw: -37%

≥15%

|OI skew| 56.7% — call-heavy

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +25.0%, OI skew +56.7% — aligned

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -100%, ATM: -43%, OTM: -26% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 64% — bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

2.8
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 0.1x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 0.3% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +9.0% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 15% — quiet vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

≥60%

Aggressive execution 16% — patient

≥30

Conviction -41 (bearish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

2.5
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 17.5% — wide

≥10,000

OI 13,369 — adequate

≥500

Volume 40/day — thin

≤$0.50

$0.88 to cross — expensive

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 76% — wider than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 225.5 contracts (bid:90.4 ask:135.1) — adequate

<1.0%

Avg slippage 9.13% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.1
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope -9.6% — contango

<30 or >70

IV percentile 67% — neutral

≥10pts kink

IV kink -3.8pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 99.38 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -41% @ 70% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls5.5
bullishIV cheap, mixed flow
Long Puts5.6
bearishIV cheap, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.3
bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow
Covered Call4.3
bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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