NDX
NDX Options Overview
IV is low with unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
NDX Gamma Walls
Value
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 20.9% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.00x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 21% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.77x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 19.6% — normal range
Effective IV 33.4% (ATM 19.6% + spread 6.9% + bias) — excellent value
Total drag 14.29% (spread 6.92% + slippage 7.37%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 11611.47 (vega 8035.136 / spread 6.92%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +0% (neutral) — Raw: +18%
|OI skew| 3.7% — balanced
Vol skew -35.6%, OI skew -3.7% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +0%, ATM: +0%, OTM: +0% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 91% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.8x avg — normal
Vol/OI 3.2% — normal turnover
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +9.9% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 64% — active vs sector
Large trade volume 14% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 19% — patient
Conviction +0 (neutral) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 6.9% — wide
OI 139,493 — deep
Volume 4,537/day — adequate
$0.35 to cross — cheap
1 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 50% — neutral vs sector
Depth 97.6 contracts (bid:44.1 ask:53.5) — thin
Avg slippage 7.37% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -23.2% — contango
IV percentile 21% — buyer opportunity
IV kink -3.4pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 1244.93 — favors income trades
4 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +0% @ 59% consistency — unclear
Score 44 (ITM 20% + inst 14%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.