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NOGNorthern Oil and Gas, Inc.

Options Analysis Report•CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS
Market Cap $2.7B|NYSE
● 2026-08-31$25.73
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y -3.8%YTD +16.9%7D -4.1%
741
30D
±10.9%
2%

NOG Options Overview

bullish flow. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

5.3VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn
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NOG Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

6.9
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 67.8% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.90x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 62% — above sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.86x — contango

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 43.2% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 63.0% (ATM 43.2% + spread 9.9% + bias) — good value

<3.0%

Total drag 16.65% (spread 9.92% + slippage 6.73%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 6.23 (vega 6.184 / spread 9.92%) — acceptable

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

6.3
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: -5%, Raw: -2%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -5% (neutral) — Raw: -2%

≥15%

|OI skew| 22.8% — call-heavy

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +54.4%, OI skew +22.8% — aligned

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -10%, ATM: -2%, OTM: +9% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 43% — bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

2.6
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks0/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 0.4x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 1.7% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +2.9% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 58% — neutral vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 14% — mostly retail

≥60%

Aggressive execution 32% — patient

≥30

Conviction -5 (bearish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.7
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 9.9% — wide

≥10,000

OI 44,723 — adequate

≥500

Volume 741/day — adequate

≤$0.50

$0.50 to cross — cheap

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 76% — wider than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 243.6 contracts (bid:118.8 ask:124.8) — adequate

<1.0%

Avg slippage 6.73% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.8
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope -14.4% — contango

<30 or >70

IV percentile 68% — neutral

≥10pts kink

IV kink -6.2pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 702.69 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -5% @ 53% consistency — unclear

≥40 composite score

Score 44 (ITM 20% + inst 14%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls7.0
bullishIV cheap, bullish flow
Long Puts5.3
bearishIV cheap, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.9
bullishIV too cheap, bullish flow
Covered Call4.0
bearishIV too cheap, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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