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NVAXNovavax Inc

Options Analysis Report•BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)
Market Cap $1.5B|NASDAQ
● 2026-08-31$9.26
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y +22.6%YTD +29.9%7D +4.5%
11,163
30D
±19.9%
12%

NVAX Options Overview

unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

5.5VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn
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NVAX Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

6.7
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 50.0% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.00x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 50% — below sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 1.00x — flat

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.00x — normal

<80%

ATM IV 0.0% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 31.4% (ATM 0.0% + spread 15.7% + bias) — excellent value

<3.0%

Total drag 23.39% (spread 15.69% + slippage 7.70%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 0.00 (vega 0.000 / spread 15.69%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

5.6
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -25%, Raw: -17%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -25% (bearish) — Raw: -17%

≥15%

|OI skew| 25.5% — call-heavy

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +53.7%, OI skew +25.5% — aligned

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -28%, ATM: -11%, OTM: -17% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 35% — bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

4.8
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 1.0x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 4.8% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +13.1% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 79% — active vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 26% — mixed

≥60%

Aggressive execution 29% — patient

≥30

Conviction -25 (bearish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.1
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 15.7% — wide

≥10,000

OI 233,345 — deep

≥500

Volume 11,163/day — active

≤$0.50

$0.78 to cross — expensive

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 0% — much tighter than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 473.6 contracts (bid:250.6 ask:223.0) — adequate

<1.0%

Avg slippage 7.70% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.4
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope +0.0% — flat/unclear

<30 or >70

IV percentile 50% — neutral

≥10pts kink

IV kink 1.3pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 1.00 — favors mixed

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -25% @ 63% consistency — moderate (bearish)

≥40 composite score

Score 56 (ITM 20% + inst 26%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls5.9
bullishIV cheap, mixed flow
Long Puts5.5
bearishIV cheap, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.7
bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow
Covered Call4.3
bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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