Options/ONTO

ONTOOnto Innovation Inc.

Options Analysis Report•MEASURING & CONTROLLING DEVICES, NEC

Market Cap $16.6B|NYSE

● 2026-08-31$270.79

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y +160.6%YTD +63.3%7D -4.3%

Options Vol

1,101

30D

Implied Move

±18.7%

IV Rank

27%

ONTO Options Overview

IV is elevated with unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn

Loading score history...

ONTO Gamma Walls

Loading gamma walls...

ONTO Hedge Radar

No action needed

Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads low; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where ONTO sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.91) — downside puts carry 0.6 IV points more than at-the-money, and options are pricing vol 31% below what the stock has actually been realizing, measured against this name's own rolling 26-trading-day realized moves (478 overlapping windows). Fragility reads resilient (3.38): it is trading 11% above its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

2.91/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

3.38/ 10resilient

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

5.6

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 89.2% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.74x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 76% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.91x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 70.1% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 91.3% (ATM 70.1% + spread 10.6% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 16.78% (spread 10.62% + slippage 6.16%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 72.42 (vega 76.912 / spread 10.62%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

5.0

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -44%, Raw: -46%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -44% (strong bearish) — Raw: -46%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 36.8% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +69.5%, OI skew +36.8% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -18%, ATM: +18%, OTM: -48% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 24% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

4.5

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.9x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 6.2% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +16.0% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 73% — active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 14% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 24% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -44 (bearish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.3

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 10.6% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 17,615 — adequate

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 1,101/day — adequate

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.53 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 86% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 22.200000000000003 contracts (bid:9.8 ask:12.4) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 6.16% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.3

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks8/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -8.6% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 89% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -4.2pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 511.73 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -44% @ 72% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 44 (ITM 20% + inst 14%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.3

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Long Puts5.3

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.8

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Covered Call4.9

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on ONTO

ONTO gamma walls ONTO max pain ONTO IV rank ONTO options flow