Options/OWL

OWLBlue Owl Capital Inc.

Options Analysis Report•INVESTMENT ADVICE

Market Cap $8.2B|NYSE

● 2026-08-28$12.02

BULLISH

Analysis: 2026-08-27 EOD data

1Y -35.1%YTD -21.5%7D +3.0%

Options Vol

20,309

30D

Implied Move

±12.4%

IV Rank

OWL Options Overview

IV is elevated with bullish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn

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OWL Gamma Walls

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OWL Hedge Radar

Neutral

Full Hedge Radar

Neither score is at an extreme today. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where OWL sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.38) — downside puts carry 21.7 IV points LESS than at-the-money, and near-dated vol is priced 6% below far-dated, measured against this name's own rolling 20-trading-day realized moves (484 overlapping windows). Fragility reads neutral (4.97): it is trading 0% above its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

2.38/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

4.97/ 10neutral

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

5.4

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 73.2% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.01x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 84% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.94x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 49.8% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 71.3% (ATM 49.8% + spread 10.8% + bias) — fair

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 17.18% (spread 10.75% + slippage 6.43%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 1.09 (vega 1.173 / spread 10.75%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

6.1

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +14%, Raw: +6%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +14% (bullish) — Raw: +6%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 26.0% — put-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +78.8%, OI skew -26.0% — divergent (opposite)

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 1%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +24%, ATM: -10%, OTM: -7% — bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 8% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

2.9

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.3x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 2.4% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change -19.0% (5d) — unwinding

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 49% — neutral vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 63% — heavy institutional

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 33% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +14 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.5

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 10.8% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 840,653 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 20,309/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.54 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 88% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 1,317.4 contracts (bid:817.4 ask:500.0) — deep

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 6.43% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.0

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -6.4% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 73% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -6.4pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 95.34 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +14% @ 57% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 93 (ITM 20% + inst 63%) — HIGH institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.8

bullishIV fair, bullish flow

Long Puts5.0

bearishIV fair, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.2

bullishIV fair, bullish flow

Covered Call4.7

bearishIV fair, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.