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PONYPony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares

Options Analysis Report
Market Cap $3.3B|NASDAQ
● 2026-08-31$7.58
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y -46.6%YTD -52.8%7D +0.3%
2,760
30D
±15.6%
4%

PONY Options Overview

IV is elevated with bullish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

4.8VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn
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PONY Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

4.5
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 87.7% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.25x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 91% — above sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 1.04x — flat

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 66.8% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 106.2% (ATM 66.8% + spread 19.7% + bias) — expensive

<3.0%

Total drag 28.09% (spread 19.69% + slippage 8.40%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 0.21 (vega 0.414 / spread 19.69%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

4.9
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -32%, Raw: -12%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -32% (strong bearish) — Raw: -12%

≥15%

|OI skew| 59.4% — call-heavy

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +12.2%, OI skew +59.4% — aligned

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -3%, ATM: -48%, OTM: +22% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 50% — neutral vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

4.2
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 0.5x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 3.7% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +16.7% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 75% — active vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 21% — mixed

≥60%

Aggressive execution 40% — patient

≥30

Conviction -32 (bearish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.1
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 19.7% — wide

≥10,000

OI 74,193 — deep

≥500

Volume 2,760/day — adequate

≤$0.50

$0.98 to cross — expensive

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 95% — much wider than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 503.5 contracts (bid:238.3 ask:265.2) — deep

<1.0%

Avg slippage 8.40% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.5
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope +3.5% — flat/unclear

<30 or >70

IV percentile 88% — seller opportunity

≥10pts kink

IV kink 6.2pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 15.92 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -32% @ 66% consistency — moderate (bearish)

≥40 composite score

Score 51 (ITM 20% + inst 21%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls4.9
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts4.9
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.1
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call5.2
bearishIV fair, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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