PONYPony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares
Options Analysis Report
Market Cap $3.9B|NASDAQ
● 2026-06-09$8.96
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-06-08 EOD data
1Y -35.1%YTD -44.2%7D -17.3%
Options Vol
7,308
30D
Implied Move
±24.0%
IV Rank
29%
PONY Options Overview
IV is elevated with bullish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.1
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 89.1% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.16x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 89% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.97x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 83.3% — crisis-level IV
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 115.7% (ATM 83.3% + spread 16.2% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 24.48% (spread 16.19% + slippage 8.29%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 0.49 (vega 0.792 / spread 16.19%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
6.3
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: -5%, Raw: -3%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -5% (neutral) — Raw: -3%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 66.2% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +80.9%, OI skew +66.2% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -24%, ATM: +40%, OTM: -2% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 16% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.7
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.2x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 9.0% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +0.2% (5d) — stable
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 91% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 36% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 47% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -5 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.3
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 16.2% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 80,754 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 7,308/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.81 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 93% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 591.6 contracts (bid:323.8 ask:267.8) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 8.29% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.8
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -3.0% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 89% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -2.3pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 45.51 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)caution advised: No earnings detected; CPI in 1d (HIGH)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -5% @ 53% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 66 (ITM 20% + inst 36%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.1
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Long Puts4.2
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.8
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Covered Call4.7
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.