DIA: Neutral
The options market is pricing a bigger move than DIA usually makes over 20 trading days.
Where DIA sits today on protection cost vs. fragility — neither axis is a prediction, it's where the name is right now.
Why now — DIA's calendar
A catalyst tells you when to look. The tape tells you whether protection is worth buying. They are never combined into one number.
No calendar has been published for 2026-08-24 yet. This is not an all-clear — we do not know what is upcoming.
Is protection worth buying?
Why it reads that way
The readings that actually moved DIA's two scores today, loudest first, with each one's share of its blend.
Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.21) — near-dated vol is priced 15% below far-dated, and implied vol sits in the 13th percentile of its own past year, measured against this name's own rolling 20-trading-day realized moves (484 overlapping windows). Fragility reads neutral (5.36): it is trading 1% below its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.
- 20%near-dated vol is priced 15% below far-dated — reads cheaper
- 20%implied vol sits in the 13th percentile of its own past year — reads cheaper
- 20%downside puts carry 2.2 IV points more than at-the-money — reads cheaper
- 20%options are pricing vol 3% below what the stock has actually been realizing — reads cheaper
- 20%the move being priced is 1.07x this name's own median 20-trading-day move — reads richer
- 50%it is trading 1% below its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability — reads more fragile
- 50%its realized-vol regime is stable — reads neutral
Informed OTM-put accumulation is a paid fragility input and is not shown at your tier. It reads the option tape for put accumulation building ahead of a move. Only its top tier scores: BIG_MOVE measured 1.57x on n=2,010 prior signals, while the tier below it measured exactly 1.00x — no edge — and is excluded from the score entirely. This name may or may not carry a reading; that is the part being withheld.
Only inputs that were actually measured for this name are listed. A reading that was missing contributed nothing and its weight was redistributed across the rest — it is not shown, because it did not participate. The withheld input above is the exception: where it was measured, it did participate in the fragility score you can see — it is the row that is gated, not the reading.
Implied vs. realized move
How often DIA's actual move around an earnings print has beaten what options priced in. This block is earnings-conditional; it is deliberately not filled in from rolling realized moves, which measure a different thing.
DIA has no earnings history, so there is no earnings beat-rate to report. Its protection cost is measured against its own rolling realized moves instead — see the basis line on the protection-cost card above.
What structure, and can you fill it?
Tight — crossing the spread costs little
ATM bid-ask is 4.6% of mid, measured off the trade tape.
Educational, not investment advice. Protection cost and fragility scores reflect the current session's options market data. Beat rate reflects historical implied-vs-realized moves and is not a forecast.