ZBRA: Hedge window open
ISM Manufacturing Employment (Aug) lands tomorrow — the options market is pricing about the move ZBRA usually makes over 14 trading days. (market-wide)
Where ZBRA sits today on protection cost vs. fragility — neither axis is a prediction, it's where the name is right now.
Why now — ZBRA's calendar
A catalyst tells you when to look. The tape tells you whether protection is worth buying. They are never combined into one number.
- TOMORROWISM Manufacturing Employment (Aug) tomorrow · market-wide2026-09-01 · Medium impact
- TOMORROWISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) tomorrow · market-wide2026-09-01 · High impact
- IN 2 DAYSADP Employment Change (Aug) in 2 days · market-wide2026-09-02 · High impact
- IN 3 DAYSInitial Jobless Claims (Aug/29) in 3 days · market-wide2026-09-03 · High impact
- IN 3 DAYSISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Aug) in 3 days · market-wide2026-09-03 · Medium impact
- IN 3 DAYSISM Services PMI (Aug) in 3 days · market-wide2026-09-03 · High impact
- IN 4 DAYSNonfarm Payrolls Private (Aug) in 4 days · market-wide2026-09-04 · High impact
- Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/05) in 10 days · market-wide2026-09-10 · Medium impact
- Producer Price Index MoM (Aug) in 10 days · market-wide2026-09-10 · High impact
- CPI MoM (Aug) in 11 days · market-wide2026-09-11 · High impact
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) in 11 days · market-wide2026-09-11 · High impact
- Fed Interest Rate Decision in 16 days · market-wide2026-09-16 · High impact
- Retail Sales MoM (Aug) in 16 days · market-wide2026-09-16 · High impact
- Housing Starts (Aug) in 17 days · market-wide2026-09-17 · High impact
- Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/12) in 17 days · market-wide2026-09-17 · Medium impact
- Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/19) in 24 days · market-wide2026-09-24 · Medium impact
- Durable Goods Orders MoM (Aug) in 25 days · market-wide2026-09-25 · High impact
- CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) in 29 days · market-wide2026-09-29 · Medium impact
- ADP Employment Change (Sep) in 30 days · market-wide2026-09-30 · Medium impact
- Core PCE Price Index MoM (Aug) in 30 days · market-wide2026-09-30 · High impact
We track scheduled earnings dates and scheduled macro releases. Nothing else — not litigation, not regulatory decisions, not product launches — so an empty list means nothing is scheduled in what we track, not that nothing can happen. Scheduled releases are read through 2026-09-30.
Is protection worth buying?
Why it reads that way
The readings that actually moved ZBRA's two scores today, loudest first, with each one's share of its blend.
Protection is priced in the cheap band (1.18) — options are pricing vol 55% below what the stock has actually been realizing, and near-dated vol is priced 21% below far-dated, measured against this name's own rolling 14-trading-day realized moves (490 overlapping windows). Fragility reads fragile (8.15): it is trading 7% below its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is expanding.
- 20%options are pricing vol 55% below what the stock has actually been realizing — reads cheaper
- 20%near-dated vol is priced 21% below far-dated — reads cheaper
- 20%implied vol sits in the 2th percentile of its own past year — reads cheaper
- 20%downside puts carry 1.1 IV points more than at-the-money — reads cheaper
- 20%the move being priced is 1.05x this name's own median 14-trading-day move — reads cheaper
- 50%it is trading 7% below its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability — reads more fragile
- 50%its realized-vol regime is expanding — reads more fragile
Informed OTM-put accumulation is a paid fragility input and is not shown at your tier. It reads the option tape for put accumulation building ahead of a move. Only its top tier scores: BIG_MOVE measured 1.57x on n=2,010 prior signals, while the tier below it measured exactly 1.00x — no edge — and is excluded from the score entirely. This name may or may not carry a reading; that is the part being withheld.
Only inputs that were actually measured for this name are listed. A reading that was missing contributed nothing and its weight was redistributed across the rest — it is not shown, because it did not participate. The withheld input above is the exception: where it was measured, it did participate in the fragility score you can see — it is the row that is gated, not the reading.
Implied vs. realized move
How often ZBRA's actual move around an earnings print has beaten what options priced in. This block is earnings-conditional; it is deliberately not filled in from rolling realized moves, which measure a different thing.
ZBRA has no earnings history, so there is no earnings beat-rate to report. Its protection cost is measured against its own rolling realized moves instead — see the basis line on the protection-cost card above.
What structure, and can you fill it?
Not measured — we could not read a real ATM spread for this name today
Unknown, not low. The measurement needs at least ten real trades at the at-the-money strike and ZBRA did not have them today.
Educational, not investment advice. Protection cost and fragility scores reflect the current session's options market data. Beat rate reflects historical implied-vs-realized moves and is not a forecast.