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UCOProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil

Options Analysis Report•COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS
AUM $405M|ARCX
● 2026-08-31$42.58
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y +73.9%YTD +121.0%7D -3.5%
5,167
30D
±16.7%
22%

UCO Options Overview

IV is elevated with bearish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

5.1VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn
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UCO Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

5.5
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 85.1% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.94x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 91% — above sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.87x — contango

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 63.0% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 78.0% (ATM 63.0% + spread 7.5% + bias) — fair

<3.0%

Total drag 10.47% (spread 7.51% + slippage 2.96%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 18.91 (vega 14.200 / spread 7.51%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

4.3
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: +4%, Raw: -1%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +4% (neutral) — Raw: -1%

≥15%

|OI skew| 1.3% — balanced

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -16.5%, OI skew -1.3% — aligned

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -55%, ATM: -60%, OTM: +11% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 90% — very bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

4.6
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 1.0x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 5.4% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +5.5% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 71% — active vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 43% — institutional presence

≥60%

Aggressive execution 40% — patient

≥30

Conviction +4 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.3
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 7.5% — wide

≥10,000

OI 95,800 — deep

≥500

Volume 5,167/day — active

≤$0.50

$0.38 to cross — cheap

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 93% — much wider than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 520.0 contracts (bid:283.1 ask:236.9) — deep

<1.0%

Avg slippage 2.96% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.8
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope -12.6% — contango

<30 or >70

IV percentile 85% — seller opportunity

≥10pts kink

IV kink -8.0pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 887.52 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +4% @ 52% consistency — unclear

≥40 composite score

Score 73 (ITM 20% + inst 43%) — HIGH institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls5.1
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.6
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.7
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call5.2
bearishIV fair, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on UCO

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