Options/UPST

UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock

Options Analysis Report•FINANCE SERVICES

Market Cap $2.8B|NASDAQ

● 2026-08-28$29.08

BULLISH

Analysis: 2026-08-27 EOD data

1Y -58.0%YTD -36.6%7D -2.7%

Options Vol

11,287

30D

Implied Move

±16.9%

IV Rank

11%

UPST Options Overview

IV is elevated with bullish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn

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UPST Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

5.5

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks4/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 84.8% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.18x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 91% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.85x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 66.0% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 87.8% (ATM 66.0% + spread 10.9% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 18.03% (spread 10.92% + slippage 7.11%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 7.35 (vega 8.027 / spread 10.92%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

6.9

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +12%, Raw: +12%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +12% (bullish) — Raw: +12%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 25.2% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +47.2%, OI skew +25.2% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 30%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -9%, ATM: +14%, OTM: +14% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 17% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

2.8

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.5x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 3.6% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change -4.8% (5d) — unwinding

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 60% — active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 15% — mixed

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 31% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +12 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.3

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 10.9% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 310,846 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 11,287/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.55 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

1 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 93% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 458.09999999999997 contracts (bid:174.7 ask:283.4) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 7.11% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.8

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -14.6% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 85% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -3.3pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 450.94 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +12% @ 56% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 45 (ITM 20% + inst 15%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls6.0

bullishIV fair, bullish flow

Long Puts4.7

bearishIV fair, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.4

bullishIV fair, bullish flow

Covered Call4.3

bearishIV fair, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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