IV is elevated with unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 90.4% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 0.66x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 74% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.07x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 88.3% — crisis-level IV
Effective IV 132.1% (ATM 88.3% + spread 21.9% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 30.78% (spread 21.88% + slippage 8.90%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 6.29 (vega 13.759 / spread 21.88%) — acceptable
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -8% (neutral) — Raw: -16%
|OI skew| 3.2% — balanced
Vol skew -5.1%, OI skew +3.2% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -24%, ATM: -44%, OTM: -14% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 89% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.9x avg — elevated
Vol/OI 15.1% — high turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +5.0% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 94% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 10% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 37% — patient
Conviction -8 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 21.9% — wide
OI 74,033 — deep
Volume 11,174/day — active
$1.09 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 85% — much wider than sector
Depth 80.9 contracts (bid:39.6 ask:41.3) — thin
Avg slippage 8.90% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +6.8% — backwardation
IV percentile 90% — seller opportunity
IV kink 2.4pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 452.61 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
caution advised: No earnings detected; CPI in 1d (HIGH)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -8% @ 54% consistency — unclear
Score 40 (ITM 20% + inst 10%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.