COSTCostco Wholesale Corp
Options Analysis Report•RETAIL-VARIETY STORES
Market Cap $432.3B|NASDAQ
● 2026-06-09$974.75
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-06-08 EOD data
1Y -3.1%YTD +14.1%7D +2.1%
Options Vol
35,587
30D
Implied Move
±6.9%
IV Rank
40%
COST Options Overview
IV is low. Conditions favor option buyers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
8.0
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 9.5% — cheap vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 0.91x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 12% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.10x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 24.9% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 57.3% (ATM 24.9% + spread 16.2% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 37.50% (spread 16.18% + slippage 21.32%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 181.92 (vega 294.342 / spread 16.18%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
4.6
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +16%, Raw: +21%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +16% (bullish) — Raw: +21%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 2.5% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -17.1%, OI skew -2.5% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -26%, ATM: +10%, OTM: +23% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 86% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.6
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.6x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 12.2% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change -6.9% (5d) — unwinding
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 94% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 2% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 17% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +16 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.2
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 16.2% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 290,400 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 35,587/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.81 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 14% — much tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 70.9 contracts (bid:20.4 ask:50.5) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 21.32% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.4
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +9.6% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 10% — buyer opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 3.2pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1361.43 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)caution advised: CPI in 1d (HIGH)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +16% @ 58% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 32 (ITM 20% + inst 2%) — retail dominated
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls6.0
bullishIV cheap, mixed flow
Long Puts6.3
bearishIV cheap, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.0
bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow
Covered Call4.3
bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.