IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 98.1% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 0.99x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 89% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.32x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 81.3% — crisis-level IV
Effective IV 105.4% (ATM 81.3% + spread 12.0% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 16.94% (spread 12.03% + slippage 4.91%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 6.63 (vega 7.978 / spread 12.03%) — acceptable
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -19% (bearish) — Raw: -8%
|OI skew| 10.9% — balanced
Vol skew +21.3%, OI skew +10.9% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -3%, ATM: -22%, OTM: -6% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 59% — bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.3x avg — normal
Vol/OI 2.9% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -1.6% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 24% — below sector avg
Large trade volume 12% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 30% — patient
Conviction -19 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 12.0% — wide
OI 249,811 — deep
Volume 7,290/day — active
$0.60 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 90% — much wider than sector
Depth 134.6 contracts (bid:85.2 ask:49.4) — adequate
Avg slippage 4.91% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +32.1% — backwardation
IV percentile 98% — seller opportunity
IV kink 22.8pts — event priced
θ/ν ratio 22.19 — favors income trades
4 liquid expirations — flexible
caution advised: CPI in 1d (HIGH)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -19% @ 60% consistency — unclear
Score 42 (ITM 20% + inst 12%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.