Options/SMTC

SMTCSemtech Corp

Options Analysis Report•SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

Market Cap $14.9B|NASDAQ

● 2026-09-11$159.13

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-09-10 EOD data

1Y +161.3%YTD +111.4%7D +7.6%

Options Vol

4,341

30D

Implied Move

±8.6%

IV Rank

42%

SMTC Options Overview

IV is elevated with bullish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn

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SMTC Gamma Walls

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SMTC Hedge Radar

No action needed

Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads low; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where SMTC sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.77) — downside puts carry 1.0 IV points more than at-the-money, and near-dated vol is priced 4% below far-dated, measured against this name's own rolling 25-trading-day realized moves (479 overlapping windows). Fragility reads resilient (3.38): it is trading 18% above its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

2.77/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

3.38/ 10resilient

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

5.0

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks4/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 91.3% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.81x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 86% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.96x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 80.3% — crisis-level IV

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 94.6% (ATM 80.3% + spread 7.1% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 12.22% (spread 7.13% + slippage 5.09%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 88.98 (vega 63.444 / spread 7.13%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

5.4

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -29%, Raw: -12%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -29% (bearish) — Raw: -12%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 14.0% — balanced

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +29.2%, OI skew +14.0% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -58%, ATM: -45%, OTM: +33% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 47% — neutral vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

4.3

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.8x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 3.6% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +3.3% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 67% — active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 42% — institutional presence

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 29% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -29 (bearish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.3

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 7.1% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 121,278 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 4,341/day — adequate

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.36 to cross — cheap

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 92% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 74.7 contracts (bid:40.6 ask:34.1) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 5.09% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.2

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -4.4% — flat/unclear

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 91% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -2.1pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 1013.48 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

caution advised: FOMC in 5d; CPI in 0d (HIGH)

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -29% @ 64% consistency — moderate (bearish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 72 (ITM 20% + inst 42%) — HIGH institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.4

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Long Puts5.1

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.3

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Covered Call5.0

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Sep 7, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on SMTC

SMTC gamma walls SMTC option chain SMTC max pain SMTC expected move SMTC IV rank SMTC put/call ratio SMTC options flow