🐻 FUBO $7.3M LEAPS Put Bet - Someone Is Betting fuboTV Goes to Near-Zero!

📅 April 9, 2026 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

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🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just dropped $7.3 MILLION on FUBO January 2027 $3 puts - buying 35,294 deep OTM LEAPS contracts with a strike that is 75.9% below the current spot price of $12.45. This is not a hedge. This is a near-zero destruction bet: the trader needs fuboTV to collapse from a $12.45 stock into essentially a penny stock or zero within 9 months. With a Z-Score of 9.03 (EXTREMELY UNUSUAL) and a Vol/OI ratio of 0.921x, this position nearly equals the entire existing open interest in this contract — signaling a massive new bet opening rather than any form of rolling or closing. $7.3M in premium deployed at $2.07 per contract. One of the most extreme directional bets in the options tape today.

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📊 Company Overview

fuboTV (FUBO) is a live TV streaming platform that bets its future on sports-first content and interactive wagering:

• 📺 What they do: Operates a cloud-based live TV streaming platform with over 150 channels, focused on live sports, news, and entertainment with interactive gaming/wagering features
• 💰 Market Cap: ~$2.1B (at $12.45/share)
• 🏢 Sector: Communication Services / Streaming Media
• 📈 Exchange: NYSE
• 📊 Current Price: $12.45 (intraday), $12.13 at time of GEX snapshot
• ⚠️ Key Story: Once a pure-play sports streaming company, FUBO merged its US operations with Hulu + Live TV in early 2025 in a landmark deal, absorbing significant dilution and restructuring uncertainty while the combined entity battles Disney, YouTube TV, and traditional cable

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 The Tape

🤓 What This Actually Means

Let me break this down in plain English:

• 💸 $7.3 million spent: 35,294 contracts at $2.07 each ($2.07 x 100 shares x 35,294 = ~$7.3M)
• 📉 Strike $3 is 75.9% below current price — this is not just out-of-the-money, it is deep-in-the-devastation zone. FUBO would need to lose roughly three-quarters of its entire market value
• ⏰ 9 months to expiration (January 15, 2027) — this is a LEAPS put, giving plenty of time for a prolonged fundamental deterioration or credit event
• 📊 Vol/OI ratio = 0.921x — volume is nearly equivalent to the entire existing open interest of 38,000 contracts, strongly suggesting this is a Buy-to-Open fresh position. The contract essentially doubled in open interest in a single print
• 📈 Z-Score: 9.03 (EXTREMELY UNUSUAL) — statistically extraordinary flow, only 1 similar historical trade flagged in the system. This is a 9-sigma event in terms of volume relative to norms
• 🤝 MID fill — executed at the midpoint of the bid-ask spread, a hallmark of institutional block execution, not retail panic-buying puts
• 🎯 Breakeven at expiration: -$0.93 from $3 strike — the stock would need to fall to $0.93 ($3.00 - $2.07 premium) for this trade to profit at expiry. To be clear: below $3, every $1 drop in FUBO is $3.5M in profit on this position. The max profit is $3.00 - $2.07 = $0.93 per contract if FUBO goes to zero, totaling roughly $3.3M — a 45% return on capital if FUBO becomes worthless

What is the thesis here?

This trader is making an asymmetric annihilation bet. They are paying $7.3M to profit if fuboTV goes to near-zero within 9 months. At $3 strike with $2.07 premium paid, the maximum possible gain is $0.93/share — so this is not a high-return trade if it works as intended. Rather, this appears to be a strategic hedge or conviction short with catastrophic-loss protection: either the trader is short FUBO stock/equity and is using deep OTM puts as a tail-risk hedge on a leveraged short, OR they genuinely believe FUBO could face a credit event, bankruptcy, going-private transaction at a distressed price, or a share collapse driven by continued dilution and subscriber erosion.

Why $3? The $3 strike represents a market cap of roughly $500M — the level at which FUBO would be valued like a distressed or near-insolvent company. This strike targets the zone where a company would be either restructuring debt, facing forced delisting, or on the path to zero.

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance

FUBO has had a volatile 2026 shaped by the post-merger integration narrative. Key technical observations from the chart:

• 📉 Significant downtrend pressure: The stock has faced persistent selling pressure as the market digests dilution from the Hulu + Live TV merger structure and ongoing cash burn
• 🎢 High volatility regime: Streaming media stocks with uncertain profitability paths exhibit wide intraday ranges and quick sentiment reversals
• 📊 Current price context: At $12.45 spot, the stock is trading at levels that reflect deep investor uncertainty about the path to profitability under the combined entity
• 💪 Volume dynamics: Any large institutional prints — like today's $7.3M put block — will disproportionately move sentiment in a relatively low-liquidity name
• 📈 Prior resistance levels: Near-term technicals suggest the $12.50 area (matching today's spot) is a pivotal zone, with the $13-$13.50 range acting as resistance per the GEX map

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $12.13 (at time of GEX snapshot)

The gamma exposure map reveals where options market makers have concentrated positions, creating natural price magnets and barriers:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):

• $12.00 — Strongest immediate support with 0.905 total GEX (just 1.1% below current price — ultra-tight floor, critical near-term)
• $11.50 — Secondary support at 0.047 total GEX (5.2% below)
• $11.00 — Structural support at 0.186 total GEX (9.3% below)
• $10.50 — Lighter support at 0.029 total GEX (13.4% below)
• $10.00 — Deep support at 0.435 total GEX — this is the second most significant floor (17.6% below, the LINE IN THE SAND)

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):

• $12.50 — Immediate resistance at 0.155 total GEX (3.1% overhead — first hurdle to clear)
• $13.00 — Significant resistance at 0.427 total GEX (7.2% above — major wall)
• $13.50 — Strong resistance at 0.175 total GEX, net GEX of 0.166 showing heavy call concentration (11.3% above)
• $14.00 — Extended resistance at 0.325 total GEX (15.4% above)
• $14.50 — Lighter resistance at 0.014 total GEX (19.5% above)

What this means for traders: FUBO is pinned extremely tight between the $12.00 support (0.905 GEX — the strongest single level by far) and the $12.50 resistance just overhead. The market maker delta hedging at $12 creates a gravitational pull — this acts as a powerful near-term magnet. The Net GEX Bias is Bullish (2.25B total call GEX vs 0.92B put GEX), suggesting that dealer hedging flows lean supportive in the near term and a sharp near-term crash is partially dampened by this structure. However, the $7.3M put buyer does not care about the near-term $12 pin — they are playing for a 9-month collapse well below all gamma support levels. The $3 strike target sits far below every meaningful GEX level.

Implied Move Analysis

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations:

• 📅 Weekly (April 10 - 1 day): ±$0.62 (±5.07%) → Range: $11.54 – $12.78
• 📅 Monthly OPEX (April 17 - 8 days): ±$1.22 (±10.0%) → Range: $10.94 – $13.38
• 📅 January 15, 2027 LEAPS (THIS TRADE!): The implied move for this tenor would encompass a range far wider than the monthly — the $2.07 premium on a $3 strike put alone implies the market is assigning a non-trivial probability to large downside moves

Translation: The weekly ±5.07% implied move in just one day reveals that FUBO is an extremely high-volatility name right now. The monthly OPEX range of $10.94 to $13.38 shows that even in 8 days, the market expects a full 20% potential swing. Extrapolated to 9 months, this means the $3 strike — while deeply OTM — is priced at $2.07 because the market is not dismissing catastrophic downside scenarios entirely. The put buyer is essentially paying $7.3M to own the left tail of a very fat-tailed distribution.

Key insight: At $2.07 premium on a $3 strike put with FUBO at $12.45, the implied volatility embedded in this trade is enormous. The risk-neutral probability of FUBO touching $3 within 9 months is reflected in that $2.07 price — and a $7.3M buyer at MID is saying they think that probability is even higher than the options market implies.

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🎪 Catalysts

🔥 Upcoming Catalysts

Q1 2026 Earnings - Expected May 2026 📊

This is the next major fundamental checkpoint. Key items the $7.3M put buyer is watching:

• 📊 Subscriber count trajectory under the combined Hulu + Live TV entity structure
• 💸 Cash burn rate and runway — how many quarters of liquidity remain at current spend levels
• 📺 Average revenue per user (ARPU) trends as pricing power erodes in a competitive streaming market
• 📉 Churn metrics: the most critical indicator of whether the sports-first strategy is retaining subscribers
• 🎰 Sports wagering / interactive segment contribution (or lack thereof) post-restructuring
• 🤝 Any updates on the integration roadmap, cost synergies, or strategic alternatives

Debt Maturity / Capital Structure Review - Ongoing ⚠️

Deep OTM long-dated puts on a small-cap name often target credit or liquidity events:

• 💳 FUBO's debt load and refinancing requirements in a high-rate environment are critical risk factors
• 📉 If free cash flow remains deeply negative, the company may need to raise equity at dilutive prices or face covenant pressure
• 🏦 Any downgrade by credit agencies or tightening of credit facility terms could accelerate the bear case toward $3

Competitive Landscape Escalation - Ongoing 📺

• 📡 YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV (Disney), DirecTV Stream, and Sling TV all compete directly for the same subscriber base
• 💰 Disney's ability to cross-subsidize Hulu + Live TV through its bundle undermines FUBO's standalone pricing power
• 📊 Cord-cutting macro continues to benefit streaming but not all players equally — FUBO's cost structure may not support long-term standalone viability
• 🏈 Sports rights costs continue inflating: the NFL, NBA, and college sports packages are increasingly controlled by tech giants (Amazon Prime, Apple TV+) and traditional media conglomerates

FTC / Regulatory Developments - Possible Wildcard 🏛️

• Any regulatory action around the Hulu + Live TV merger structure or forced divestitures could create additional uncertainty and downward pressure on the stock

✅ Recent Catalysts (Already Happened)

Hulu + Live TV Merger Integration (2025) 🤝

The landmark merger that transformed FUBO from a standalone streaming company into a combined entity with Hulu's live TV business. While strategically logical, the deal introduced:

• 📉 Significant share dilution affecting equity value per share
• 🔄 Integration complexity and uncertain synergy realization timelines
• 💰 Increased leverage and cash flow pressure during the transition period

Sustained Cash Burn and Prior Equity Offerings

fuboTV has historically funded operations through repeated equity raises, each dilutive to existing shareholders. The pattern of negative free cash flow in a rising-rate environment is precisely the type of fundamental backdrop that makes a $3 strike LEAPS put a rational speculative position.

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, implied move data, the fundamental cash-burn narrative, and the catalyst calendar, here are the scenarios through the January 15, 2027 expiration:

📉 Bear Case — "This Trade Works" (20% probability)

Target: $0 – $3

How we get there:

• 🚨 Cash runway exhaustion forces a distressed equity raise at $2-$4 per share, essentially destroying existing equity value
• 💳 Debt covenant breach or credit event forces restructuring negotiations
• 📉 Subscriber base collapses faster than expected as the combined entity fails to retain customers during integration chaos
• 🎰 Sports wagering segment generates no material revenue contribution, removing the key long-term bull thesis
• 📊 Q1 or Q2 earnings reveal accelerating losses without a credible path to free cash flow
• 📡 Competitive pressure from Disney/Hulu and YouTube TV forces FUBO to slash prices, destroying ARPU
• 🗑️ Stock breaks below the $10 gamma support level, triggering systematic selling and forced margin calls among leveraged longs

Put trade P&L at $3.00 (breakeven): Puts at expiration worth $0/share — loss = -$7.3M (-100%) Put trade P&L at $1.00: Puts worth $2.00/share — profit = -$0.07/share x 35,294 contracts = near-breakeven, barely positive Put trade P&L at $0: Puts worth $3.00/share, profit = $0.93/share x 35,294 contracts = +$3.3M gain (+45% ROI)

This is the scenario the $7.3M trader is waiting for — a near-complete destruction of equity value through insolvency, distressed recapitalization, or structural business failure.

🎯 Base Case (50% probability)

Target: $6 – $12 range

Most likely scenario:

• 📊 FUBO continues to burn cash but avoids immediate credit crisis
• 🔄 Integration proceeds messily — neither the bull nor the bear case is confirmed
• 📺 Subscriber metrics drift lower as competition intensifies, but the company doesn't implode
• 💸 Stock drifts toward $8-$10 range as investors de-rate the multiple on continued losses
• 📉 The $3 strike puts retain time value due to elevated implied volatility but do not pay off at expiration

Put trade P&L at $8: Puts expire worthless (well above $3 strike) — loss = -$7.3M (-100%) Put trade P&L at $5: Puts expire worthless — loss = -$7.3M (-100%)

In this scenario, the entire $7.3M premium is lost. However, the puts could be sold before expiration if implied volatility spikes significantly (e.g., on a bad earnings report or credit news) — the trader could recover a portion of premium even without the stock reaching $3.

📈 Bull Case (30% probability)

Target: $15 – $20

What could go wrong for the put buyer:

• 🚀 Integration synergies materialize faster than expected, improving the path to profitability
• 💰 A strategic acquirer (Disney, a media conglomerate, a private equity firm) makes a takeover bid at a premium
• 📊 Q2 or Q3 earnings show inflecting subscriber growth and positive ARPU trajectory
• 🤝 A major sports rights deal cements FUBO's competitive position
• 📈 Stock breaks above $13-$14 resistance levels, sending shorts to cover and generating momentum buying
• 💵 Capital raise at favorable terms removes near-term liquidity concerns

Put trade P&L: Puts expire deep OTM and worthless — loss = -$7.3M (-100%)

A takeover bid is perhaps the single most dangerous scenario for this put position — acquirers typically come in at a meaningful premium to current trading price, destroying the entire bear thesis overnight.

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: "Ride the Bear Thesis Cheaply" — OTM Put Spread

Play: Buy the FUBO January 2027 $10 puts, sell the January 2027 $5 puts

Structure: $10/$5 bear put spread, 9 months to expiration

Why this works:

• 📉 Captures significant downside without needing FUBO to go to near-zero
• 🛡️ Defined risk — you can only lose the net debit paid
• 💰 Max profit: $5.00 per spread minus net debit if FUBO falls below $5 by January 2027
• 📊 The $10 strike sits just below the $10.00 gamma support level — a breach of that level would be a strong bearish signal
• ⚖️ Far less capital at risk than the $7.3M institutional bet — a retail-friendly version of the same thesis
• 🎯 Breakeven approximately around $8-$9 depending on exact pricing

Position sizing: Risk no more than 2-3% of portfolio. 20 spreads at ~$2.50 each = ~$5,000 risk for ~$5,000 max profit if FUBO collapses past $5.

Risk level: Moderate (defined risk, directional) | Skill level: Intermediate

⚖️ Balanced: "Straddle the Uncertainty" — Long Straddle / Strangle

Play: Buy both FUBO January 2027 $12 calls and $12 puts (ATM straddle)

Why this works:

• 🎯 Profits from a large move in either direction — you do not need to pick the exact direction
• 📊 Given FUBO's elevated implied volatility and the binary nature of its fundamental story, a large move is more likely than the stock sitting at $12 for 9 months
• 💸 The $7.3M institutional put trade itself is a volatility catalyst — it signals that informed money sees a large move coming
• ⚡ A takeover bid (upside) OR a credit event (downside) would both generate big profits on a long straddle
• ⏰ January 2027 gives time for multiple major fundamental catalysts to resolve

The risk: If FUBO grinds sideways at $12 for 9 months, time decay destroys both legs and you lose the full premium on both sides. Straddles require big moves to profit.

Position sizing: 10-20 straddles at a net cost of ~$4-6 each = $4,000–$12,000 at risk.

Risk level: Moderate-High (defined risk, needs big move) | Skill level: Intermediate-Advanced

🚀 Aggressive: "Mirror the Whale Directionally" — FUBO $5 LEAPS Puts

Play: Buy FUBO January 2027 $5 puts outright

Why this works (and why it's risky):

• 📉 Higher delta than the $3 strike — more responsive to price declines in the $8-$12 range
• 💰 Lower absolute premium than the $3 strike, making the per-contract cost more manageable
• ⏰ Same 9-month timeframe captures all major catalysts (earnings, debt reviews, competitive updates)
• 🎯 Profits meaningfully if FUBO falls to $5 or below, without needing near-zero
• 📊 A $5 strike still represents catastrophic loss of value from current levels — it's a deep bear bet, just a less extreme one

Why it could blow up:

• 💸 Elevated implied volatility means you are paying a rich premium for time and optionality
• ⏰ 9 months of time decay will grind the put value lower every day FUBO does not fall
• 📈 A takeover bid or positive catalyst spike could wipe out the entire put value overnight
• 🎢 FUBO is a highly volatile, low-liquidity name — bid-ask spreads on options can be wide, creating slippage

Position sizing: Risk ONLY what you can afford to lose completely. 10-20 contracts as a speculative satellite position.

Risk level: HIGH (can lose 100% of premium) | Skill level: Advanced

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Don't get caught by these potential landmines if you are following this bear thesis:

• 📈 Takeover risk is the single biggest threat to this put trade: At a ~$2B market cap with depressed sentiment, FUBO is a plausible acquisition target. Disney (which already owns Hulu), a private equity firm, or a telecom company could bid at $16-$20 per share, instantly destroying all put value. Hostile takeovers in streaming have happened quickly and without warning.

• 💰 $3 strike requires near-total equity destruction: The breakeven on this trade is $0.93. For the put buyer to profit, FUBO must lose 92.5% of its current value. Even in the most severe streaming company failures, stocks often stabilize in the $2-$5 range rather than going to zero, especially with merger backstops in place.

• 🎰 Sports wagering optionality: FUBO's interactive wagering segment, while nascent, represents a free option on a potentially large market. If regulatory tailwinds accelerate US sports betting adoption and FUBO becomes a meaningful player, this narrative could create episodic stock spikes that decimate long-put positions.

• 🏦 Net GEX Bias is Bullish: The current gamma structure (2.25B call GEX vs 0.92B put GEX) means dealer hedging flows lean moderately supportive in the near term. The strong $12.00 GEX support acts as a near-term damper on sharp declines. The put buyer is comfortable with this since they are playing a 9-month thesis, not a 1-week move.

• 📊 Implied volatility crush risk: If FUBO stabilizes and the fundamental narrative becomes clearer (either bull or bear), implied volatility could compress significantly, destroying the extrinsic value of these deep OTM puts even if the stock has declined modestly. Buying expensive puts on a high-IV stock is a double-edged sword.

• 🌍 Macro streaming tailwinds: Cord-cutting continues to benefit all streaming platforms at a macro level. A broadly risk-on market environment with consumer spending holding up could provide a temporary floor for FUBO that delays the bear thesis well past the January 2027 expiration.

• 📅 Time decay is the relentless enemy: At $2.07 per contract, FUBO must fall dramatically by January 2027. If the stock drifts down gradually to $8-$10 without any catastrophic catalyst, these puts lose value steadily through theta decay despite being "right" directionally. The $3 strike is simply too far from spot for gradual deterioration to create profit.

• ⚖️ Concentration risk for the put buyer: $7.3M in a single 35,000-contract put position in a ~$2B market cap stock is an enormous concentrated bet. This level of sizing implies either a large institution managing a substantial equity short book, or a high-conviction speculator making a leveraged directional call with defined-risk structure.

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Here is the deal: Someone with serious institutional conviction just committed $7.3 million to bet that fuboTV essentially ceases to exist as a functioning public company within 9 months. The $3 strike on a $12.45 stock is not a hedge — it is a declaration that the put buyer believes FUBO faces either a credit event, distressed recapitalization, forced merger at a panic price, or a continued death spiral in subscriber economics that erases 92%+ of equity value.

What this trade tells us:

• 🐻 This is one of the most extreme directional bear bets in the options tape: a 75.9% OTM put with $7.3M of premium at stake
• 📊 The Z-Score of 9.03 (EXTREMELY UNUSUAL) with only 1 historical comparable trade confirms this is not routine hedging or position management — this is an outlier event
• 💰 At $2.07 premium, the max ROI is just 45% if FUBO goes to zero — suggesting this may be a cheap catastrophic hedge layered on top of an existing large short position, rather than a standalone speculative bet
• ⏰ The January 2027 expiration captures the full fundamental deterioration cycle: two more earnings prints, multiple capital structure decision points, and the outcome of the Hulu integration playbook
• 🎯 The MID fill on 35,294 contracts confirms institutional execution — this is not panic retail put buying

This IS a bearish signal, but with critical context: The $12 GEX support is extremely strong and creates a near-term floor. The Net GEX Bias is bullish. The implied move structure shows the market is not currently pricing in imminent collapse. The bear thesis requires multiple things to go wrong simultaneously: cash burn acceleration, competitive pressure intensification, and the absence of any strategic acquirer. That is a plausible but not certain outcome over 9 months.

If you share the bearish view on FUBO:

• ✅ Consider defined-risk bear put spreads ($10/$5 or $8/$4) rather than naked deep OTM puts — you need the stock to actually decline for spreads to profit, not go to near-zero
• 📊 Watch the $12.00 GEX support level — a sustained break below this level on volume would be the first technical confirmation of the bear thesis
• ⏰ Mark Q1 2026 earnings as the first major fundamental checkpoint — subscriber and ARPU trends will either validate or challenge the deterioration narrative
• 💳 Monitor FUBO's debt covenants and cash runway reports from management — any negative language here is an early warning signal

If you are watching from the sidelines:

• 🎯 The gap between current price ($12.45) and the put strike ($3.00) is enormous — directional bears should use put spreads that profit on a $6-$10 destination, not a $0 destination
• 📊 Wait for technical confirmation of a break below $10 GEX support before committing bear capital
• ⏰ The earnings catalyst in May will be the clearest near-term signal for fundamental direction
• 💡 If the stock spikes toward $13-$14 resistance levels, that would create a better put entry point with a favorable risk/reward setup

If you are a bull or long FUBO stock:

• ⚠️ This $7.3M put print is not a trivial data point to dismiss — the size and strike depth suggest a very well-resourced party has a strong fundamental conviction on structural deterioration
• 🛡️ Consider protective puts in the $8-$10 range to hedge existing long positions — the cost of downside protection is justified given the activity today
• 📉 A break below $12.00 (the strongest gamma support) would change the risk/reward picture significantly and is worth setting hard stops around

Key dates to mark:

• 📅 May 2026 — Q1 2026 earnings (critical subscriber, ARPU, and cash burn data)
• 📅 June/July 2026 — Q2 2026 earnings (second major checkpoint for integration progress)
• 📅 Ongoing — Monitor debt maturity schedules and any capital raise announcements
• 📅 October/November 2026 — Q3 2026 earnings (final catalyst before the January 2027 expiration)
• 📅 January 15, 2027 — THIS TRADE EXPIRES — the moment of reckoning for the $7.3M bear bet

Final verdict: The $7.3M LEAPS put print on FUBO is one of the starkest bear signals in today's tape. It represents either a sophisticated catastrophic hedge on a large existing short book, or a highly informed speculator who believes the fundamental and capital structure trajectory for fuboTV ends badly. The near-total destruction required to profit at expiration (stock must fall to $0.93 to break even) means this trade functions more as tail insurance than a standard directional bet. For retail traders, the lesson is to size appropriately, use spreads to reduce cost basis, and not try to mirror a $7.3M institutional put print with the same deep OTM strike. The directional signal is worth following — the exact structure probably is not.

The $12 gamma support is your near-term anchor. A break below $10 is the signal the bear thesis is playing out. And remember: this trader paid $7.3M for a maximum possible gain of $3.3M — that tells you everything about how they are using this position. 🐻

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Deep OTM LEAPS puts are high-risk instruments that can lose 100% of premium if the stock does not reach the strike by expiration. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading.

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About fuboTV: fuboTV operates a cloud-based live TV streaming platform focused on live sports, news, and entertainment, with interactive wagering features. Following its merger with Hulu's live TV operations in 2025, the combined entity serves millions of subscribers in a highly competitive streaming landscape. NYSE-listed with a current market cap of approximately $2.1B.