🐻 GLXY $1.2M Bearish Bet — Whale Bets Galaxy Digital Fades After a 60% Run

📅 May 18, 2026 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

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🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just spent $1.2 million buying short-dated puts on Galaxy Digital right as the stock sits near-the-money at $27.58, with only 11 days until expiration. The bet is simple: after a ≈60% rally in one month driven by Bitcoin's rebound and the company's first data-center delivery, this trader thinks the stock is extended and vulnerable before the next real earnings catalyst in late July. Translation: Smart money is buying downside insurance — or making an outright bearish bet — on a crypto stock that just had a historic run.

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📊 Company Overview

Galaxy Digital (GLXY) is a dual-engine financial services and infrastructure firm operating at the intersection of crypto and AI computing:

• Market Cap: ≈$9–10 billion range (float-adjusted; Class A shares listed on NASDAQ Global Select Market)
• Industry: Digital-Asset Financial Services + AI/HPC Data-Center Development
• Current Price: $27.58 (at time of trade)
• Primary Business: Crypto trading, asset management (≈$5B AUM), staking (≈$3.2B staked), and the Helios AI data-center campus in West Texas — a 15-year CoreWeave lease anchoring a pivot toward infrastructure annuities
• The story in one sentence: Galaxy is a ≈1.2–1.8x leveraged Bitcoin proxy that is simultaneously trying to become an AI landlord; the stock moves fast in both directions

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (May 18, 2026 @ 13:49:48):

🤓 What This Actually Means

This is a short-dated, defined-risk long put — Order_Type BTO (Buy to Open). Here is what is happening:

• 💸 Premium paid: $1.2M ($1.81 per contract × 6,800 contracts × 100 shares)
• 🎯 Strike geometry: $28 strike vs. $27.58 spot = the option is already slightly in-the-money by $0.42
• ⏰ Time left: Only 11 calendar days to expiration on May 29, 2026 — this is a sprint, not a marathon
• 📊 Volume vs. open interest: Vol/OI ≈ 179. Prior OI on this strike was only 38 contracts. 6,800 contracts traded is not recycled open interest — this is clearly a fresh opening position (STANDALONE BTO)
• 🛡️ Defined risk: Max loss is exactly the $1.2M premium paid. There is no margin call scenario here — the buyer cannot lose more than what they put in
• 🏦 Who does this? Trading 6,794 contracts at once is institutional or a very serious professional. This is not someone clicking a retail app

What the trade is actually saying:

The trader is betting that GLXY either stays below $28 or falls further by May 29. With Bitcoin as the dominant price driver and the stock up ≈60% in a single month, this is a short-dated hedge against mean-reversion or a BTC pullback. There is no GLXY earnings report before May 29 — the next formal earnings catalyst is expected in late July / early August 2026 — so the put buyer is not hedging a binary earnings event. They are hedging crypto-price risk and an extended chart.

Think of it like buying fire insurance on a house after a summer heat wave. The house is still standing, but conditions are elevated and you want coverage for the next 11 days.

The defined risk matters: Unlike naked short selling, this bet has a clean maximum loss ($1.2M) and a clean maximum profit (if GLXY goes to zero, which is not the base case). For the put to pay at expiry, GLXY needs to close below $26.19 ($28 strike minus $1.81 premium). Every dollar the stock falls below that level is pure profit on the position.

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance

GLXY has had a volatile year. The 52-week range spans from ≈$16.43 to ≈$45.92 — meaning the stock has more than doubled from its lows and has also shed more than 40% from its highs at different points in the year. As of mid-May 2026, the stock is trading ≈21% above its 20-day moving average and ≈22% above its 100-day moving average — historically stretched levels that often precede at least short-term consolidation.

Key observations:

• 🚀 The recent run: A ≈60–72% gain in roughly one month, driven by Bitcoin reclaiming the $80,000 level and the Q1 2026 EPS beat plus first Helios data-hall delivery to CoreWeave
• 📉 What came before: GLXY fell ≈9.6% in a single session on March 7, 2026 when Bitcoin dropped — a reminder of how fast this stock can move against you
• 📊 The 52-week high: ≈$45.92 — still 66% above current levels, so bulls would say there is room to run
• ⚠️ The 52-week low: ≈$16.43 — and the stock visited areas near $20 as recently as April 2026, so bears have data points too

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance

Current Price: $27.55

The gamma exposure map shows where the heaviest options positioning sits and where market makers will naturally lean in either direction. For GLXY, the picture right around the current price is relatively light — most of the meaningful gamma is a few strikes away:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price — where dealers buy dips):

• $27.50 — Highest total gamma immediately below spot (≈1.10 total GEX). This is the nearest significant anchor. With the stock essentially sitting on top of this strike, market makers have real hedging activity right here
• $25.00 — Next meaningful floor (≈1.99 total GEX, net call-heavy). A break below $27 could see the stock slide toward $25 before finding structural support
• $22.50 — Lighter secondary support (≈0.75 total GEX)
• $20.00 — Deeper support (≈1.21 total GEX) — aligns with the April 2026 lows; a BTC-driven flush could reach this level

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price — where dealers sell into rallies):

• $28.00 — Immediate overhead (≈0.15 total GEX; net put-heavy). The put buyer struck exactly here — slightly above spot, where put gamma creates dealer selling pressure as price approaches
• $30.00 — First meaningful resistance ceiling (≈2.42 total GEX, call-heavy). This is the clearest near-term cap on any rally attempt
• $32.50 — Strong resistance band (≈1.62 total GEX, strongly call-dominated)
• $35.00 — Major wall (≈1.99 total GEX, heavily call-weighted). Would require a large sustained move to break through

What this means for traders:

GLXY is sitting right at the $27.50 gamma cluster — the zone of highest nearby total exposure. The stock may gravitate to this level as a natural "pin" in the near term. The absence of strong put support immediately below (until $25) means a BTC-driven move lower could accelerate quickly once $27.50 breaks. The $30 call wall overhead is the logical cap on any relief rally within the 11-day window.

Net GEX Bias: Mixed to slightly bearish below $28. Net put-heavy at the $28 strike, meaning dealer hedging at that strike adds selling pressure as price approaches — consistent with the put buyer's thesis.

Implied Move Analysis

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations:

• 📅 Weekly (May 22 — 4 days): ±$1.76 (±6.37%) → Range: $25.79 – $29.31
• 📅 Monthly OPEX (June 19 — 32 days): ±$7.61 (±27.61%) → Range: $19.94 – $35.16

Translation for regular folks:

The options market is pricing in a 6.37% move ($1.76) by this Friday, putting the weekly range at $25.79 on the low end and $29.31 on the high end. For a crypto-linked stock that just ran 60% in a month, that is actually a fairly tight near-term window.

Zooming out to June 19 OPEX (the next major expiration after the put's May 29 maturity), the implied move balloons to ±27.61% ($7.61) — a range of $19.94 to $35.16. That wide band reflects the reality that GLXY is a high-volatility crypto proxy, and 32 days is a long time in crypto.

Key insight for the put trade: The May 29 expiration falls between the May 22 weekly and the June 19 monthly OPEX. The 11-day window is priced for relatively contained moves. The put buyer paid $1.81 for a position already slightly in the money — they need GLXY to close below $26.19 at expiry to profit. That breakeven is within the lower half of the weekly implied range, suggesting the market gives this trade a real — if not majority — probability of finishing in the money.

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🎪 Catalysts

🔥 Near-Term Catalysts (Before May 29, 2026)

Bitcoin Price Path — THE #1 Driver 📊

GLXY's historical correlation to Bitcoin runs ≈0.65–0.85, with an effective beta of 1.2–1.8 — meaning when BTC moves 5%, GLXY can move 6–9% in the same direction. Galaxy's CEO Mike Novogratz has commented publicly near Bitcoin's $76,000 level, and Galaxy's own research head Alex Thorn has called 2026's BTC outlook "uncertain" despite a longer-term $250,000 by year-end 2027 target. Any BTC pullback before May 29 is the most direct trigger for the put buyer's thesis to play out.

U.S. Crypto Legislation — CLARITY Act 📜

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) has passed the House and cleared both Senate committees, but still needs a merged Senate bill, an ethics provision, and 60 floor votes. A May 1, 2026 Tillis–Alsobrooks compromise on deposit-like stablecoin yields advanced the discussion, but the outcome remains uncertain. Restrictive yield provisions would directly constrain Galaxy's staking and lending economics — a negative headline here would move the whole crypto sector and GLXY with it.

Analyst Actions — Wide Dispersion Creates Volatility 📉📈

The analyst community is unusually split on GLXY. Goldman Sachs sits at Neutral with a $21 price target — the street low and the bear anchor — while Citizens JMP has a $55 Market Outperform. That is a $34 spread between the two extreme views on the same stock. Piper Sandler cut its target from $42 to $36 on April 21 after updating its sum-of-the-parts model. A fresh PT cut toward the Goldman range in the next 11 days would be a negative catalyst.

🚀 Binary Milestones (Just Outside the May 29 Window — Still Affecting Sentiment)

Helios Phase I — 133 MW End-of-Q2 Deadline

Galaxy's Helios campus in West Texas is targeting delivery of the full 133 MW Phase I load to CoreWeave by June 30, 2026. The first data hall was already delivered to CoreWeave in April 2026, but Phase I completion is still a work in progress. Any pre-quarter-end headline — positive (on-track confirmation) or negative (delays, power interconnect issues, CoreWeave credit concerns) — would move the stock before May 29. This is the single most important execution milestone for the entire data-center pivot thesis.

The CoreWeave Anchor: The lease economics are meaningful — 526 MW of contracted critical IT load across three phases, with >$1 billion average annual revenue at full ramp and ≈90% lease-level EBITDA margins. Galaxy also secured ERCOT approval for an additional 830 MW, doubling total approved capacity to over 1.6 GW. A new hyperscaler lease announcement for the uncontracted capacity would be a strong bullish catalyst.

📅 Upcoming Catalysts (After May 29 — Context for Position Holders)

Q2 2026 Earnings — Late July / Early August 2026

Galaxy reported Q1 2026 results on April 28, 2026. The Q2 report is expected in the late-July to mid-August 2026 window (exact date not yet confirmed). Management has provided a preliminary Q2 adjusted EBITDA estimate of ≈$90 million — a potential swing toward operating profitability as Helios revenue begins. The Q1 print showed a $216 million net loss, but an adjusted EPS of $(0.49) — materially better than the ≈$(0.95) consensus estimate. This compares to a prior-period loss of ≈$482 million when Bitcoin slumped — Galaxy's GAAP results are heavily driven by crypto mark-to-market.

Helios Phase II (≈260 MW): Deliveries expected to begin H1 2027. The $1.4 billion project-financing facility closed earlier in 2026 to accelerate this. Long-dated investors see Phase II as a forward valuation driver; it does not affect the May 29 put directly.

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, the implied move data, and the catalyst calendar above, here are the realistic scenarios for GLXY before May 29:

📉 Bear Case — Put Buyer's Thesis Plays Out (35% probability)

Target: $24–$26.19 (breakeven) or below

How we get there:

• 😰 Bitcoin pulls back 5–10% from current levels — GLXY drops 9–18% given its 1.2–1.8x beta
• 📊 The ≈60% one-month rally runs out of momentum; profit-taking kicks in with no imminent GLXY earnings to reinforce the thesis
• 🛡️ Gamma support at $27.50 breaks, accelerating a slide toward the $25 level (next meaningful gamma floor)
• 🚨 A negative headline — new analyst PT cut toward Goldman's $21 line, a Helios Phase I delay signal, or a CLARITY Act setback — compounds the move
• 🐋 The put pays off: At $26.19 (the breakeven), the position breaks even. At $25, the put is worth ≈$3.00 per contract (≈$2.04M on 6,800 contracts), a 70% gain on $1.2M invested. At $22, it is worth ≈$6, generating ≈$4.08M — a 240% return

Why 35%? The stock is already slightly in the money on this put ($27.58 vs. $28 strike), and the implied move for the week supports a $25.79 downside scenario. The 11-day window is short enough that one bad Bitcoin session can deliver the outcome. The "catch" is BTC has been in recovery mode — the path of least resistance is still up until something changes.

🎯 Base Case — Sideways to Modest Rally, Put Expires Worthless (45% probability)

Target: $26.50–$30

Most likely scenario:

• ✅ Bitcoin stays range-bound between $80,000 and $90,000; GLXY consolidates the recent move
• 📊 Stock gravitates toward the $27.50 gamma cluster — stays in a ±5% band around current price
• ⚖️ No major negative catalysts hit before May 29; the stock simply runs out of 11 days
• 🔄 Put expires worthless or nearly worthless; the $1.2M is the cost of protection that did not get used
• 💸 Put buyer's P&L: If GLXY closes at $28 or above on May 29, the entire $1.2M premium is lost

This is the "insurance that did not get used" scenario. A homeowner who pays fire insurance and does not have a fire does not regret buying the policy. The put buyer may be hedging a large long GLXY position, and the $1.2M is a reasonable cost to sleep soundly for 11 days.

📈 Bull Case — BTC Breakout Extends, Put Buyer Loses (20% probability)

Target: $30–$33

How we get there:

• 🚀 Bitcoin breaks above $90,000 and the BTC-proxy rally in GLXY continues
• 🏭 A new hyperscaler lease at Helios (uncontracted ≈2.7–3.0 GW remaining capacity) is announced — would be a major re-rating catalyst
• ✅ CLARITY Act advances toward floor vote — sector-wide positive sentiment
• 📊 Gamma resistance at $30 is tested; would need heavy buying to push through
• 💸 Put buyer's P&L: Every dollar above $28 on May 29 = full loss on all 6,800 contracts; max loss is the $1.2M premium, regardless of how high the stock goes

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Stay Flat Until the Story Clears

Play: No position — observe the Bitcoin/Helios dynamic before committing capital

Why this works:

• ⏰ With only 11 days to expiry, there is almost no time cushion on directional option bets — you are essentially picking a direction for the next two weeks
• 💸 Implied volatility on GLXY is elevated (the ±27.61% 32-day implied move signals expensive options) — paying premium is a high bar
• 🎯 The put buyer may have inside knowledge of their own hedging needs. As a retail participant, you do not know if this is a hedge or a directional bet
• 📊 Better risk/reward often comes from waiting for the Helios Phase I confirmation (by June 30) before taking a view

Action plan:

• 👀 Watch Bitcoin's $80K level — a break below that on any day before May 29 is the signal the put buyer is right
• 📊 Monitor for analyst actions, particularly from the Goldman $21 camp or new CLARITY Act headlines
• ✅ If you own GLXY stock, the put buyer's size is at minimum a yellow flag about near-term risk

Risk level: None | Skill level: Beginner-friendly

⚖️ Balanced: Small Defined-Risk Bearish Spread (Post-Review)

Play: Buy a put spread copying the institutional direction but with tighter sizing

Structure: Buy the $28 put, sell a $25 put — same May 29 expiration — for a net debit

Why this could work:

• 🎢 The $28/$25 spread targets the scenario where GLXY pulls back toward the $25 gamma support level
• 📊 Selling the $25 put against your long reduces the cost significantly vs. paying $1.81 outright — a spread might cost ≈$0.60–$0.90, risking $60–$90 per spread while capping max profit at ≈$2.10–$2.40
• 🎯 Breakeven around $27.00–$27.40, within the weekly implied range
• 🛡️ Defined risk on both sides — you cannot lose more than the net debit

Key caveat: Even a spread on 11-day options is aggressive. Time decay (theta) is brutal at this point — the position loses value every day you are wrong. Size accordingly: risk no more than 1–2% of your trading capital.

Entry timing: Only enter after you see Bitcoin show weakness on the daily chart. Going with the crypto tape is better than fighting it.

Risk level: Moderate (defined risk) | Skill level: Intermediate

🚀 Aggressive: Straight Long Put — Mirror the Whale (HIGH RISK)

Play: Buy the same GLXY May 29 $28 put outright — directional bearish bet

Why this could work:

• 🐋 The institutional buyer paid $1.81 for a reason — they see near-term risk that others may not be pricing
• 📊 The put is already slightly in the money, meaning it has ≈$0.42 of intrinsic value built in; you are not purely buying time value
• 🎯 A single bad Bitcoin session (like the March 7, 2026 episode where GLXY fell ≈9.6% in one day) could make the put worth $2–$4 overnight
• ⏰ 11 days is enough time for crypto to surprise — it often does

Why this can blow up spectacularly:

• 💸 Theta kills you fast: With 11 days to expiry, time decay is at its most aggressive. If GLXY stays flat at $27.58, the $1.81 put sheds value every single day. A week of sideways action could cut the value in half
• 🔄 A modest BTC rally (even 3–5%) could push GLXY above $28 and make the put nearly worthless before you can exit
• 🎰 You are betting on a specific direction over a very short window — that is speculative, not investment-grade

Estimated P&L scenarios at May 29 expiry:

• GLXY at $24 → Put worth ≈$4.00 (121% gain on $1.81 paid)
• GLXY at $26 → Put worth ≈$2.00 (10% gain — barely covers costs)
• GLXY at $28 → Put worth $0 (100% loss of premium paid)
• GLXY at $30 → Put worth $0 (100% loss)

CRITICAL WARNINGS:

• ✅ Only trade this if you can afford to lose every dollar you spend — options with this little time left frequently go to zero
• ✅ Do NOT size this as a core position — think 0.5–1% of capital at most
• ✅ Have a plan to exit if GLXY closes above $29 on any day — do not hold a losing short-dated put hoping it turns around
• ✅ Understand the whale who bought 6,800 contracts has very different economics and portfolio context than a retail trader buying 5

Risk level: HIGH (full premium at risk) | Skill level: Advanced only | Probability of profit at expiry: ≈40–45%

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Honest rundown of what can go wrong in either direction:

• 🚀 Bitcoin breakout — the primary bull risk: If BTC breaks above $90,000 and the crypto rally accelerates, GLXY's 1.2–1.8x beta will push it higher quickly. The $30 gamma wall could break on strong buying, and the put expires worthless. There is no earnings stop-gap before May 29 to create a natural ceiling.

• 🏭 Helios Phase I positive update: A management press release or news report confirming the 133 MW delivery is on track — or a new hyperscaler lease announcement for the ≈2.7–3.0 GW of uncontracted Helios capacity — would be strongly bullish and could spike the stock 10–15% in a session, vaporizing the put.

• 📊 Mean-reversion scenario — the put buyer's core bull thesis: The stock has run ≈60% in a month, trading ≈20–22% above key moving averages. Without a new positive catalyst, profit-taking is natural. The March 7, 2026 session showed GLXY can lose 9.6% in a single day on Bitcoin weakness alone. One session like that and the puts are deep in the money.

• ⚖️ Helios execution / CoreWeave concentration risk: The entire data-center pivot hinges on a single tenant for the first 526 MW. Any concern about CoreWeave's creditworthiness, a power or interconnect delay, or a construction setback at the Helios campus would damage the core re-rating thesis and potentially pull the stock back sharply.

• 💸 Goldman's $21 bear anchor is real: Goldman Sachs carries a Neutral rating and a $21 price target — the street low — and Piper Sandler cut its target from $42 to $36 in April citing sum-of-the-parts valuation concerns. If Goldman publishes fresh commentary near current prices, the downside narrative gets reinforced.

• 🧾 CLARITY Act tail risk (both ways): A positive Senate vote advances crypto sentiment broadly — GLXY would rally. Restrictive provisions on staking yields or a failed cloture vote would hit Galaxy's trading and staking franchise directly.

• 🎢 Theta is relentless with 11 days left: For anyone trading these options — long or short — time decay at this duration is not forgiving. Every day the stock stays flat, the put loses tangible value. The put buyer paid $1.81; if GLXY sits at $27.58 for five days, that option might be worth $1.00 or less even with the same spot price.

• 📉 Large GAAP losses are the baseline: Galaxy posted a $216M net loss in Q1 2026 and a $482M loss in the prior period. These losses are primarily driven by crypto mark-to-market, not operating deterioration. But they create headline risk if reporters frame the next quarter's numbers in isolation.

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone paid $1.2 million for 11-day put protection on a crypto stock that just ran 60% in a month. That is not irrational — it is disciplined risk management, or a calculated bet on mean-reversion.

What this trade tells us:

• 🎯 The buyer is not predicting Galaxy Digital goes bankrupt — they are betting the stock gives back some recent gains in a very short window
• 💰 The $28 strike was chosen deliberately: slightly in the money, with the heaviest nearby gamma exposure at $27.50 serving as the fulcrum
• ⚖️ There is no GLXY earnings before May 29 — this is purely a Bitcoin/sentiment/chart call, not an earnings hedge
• 📊 The Vol/OI ratio of ≈179 is unambiguous — this is a fresh opening position, not closing of prior exposure
• ⏰ Short-dated trades like this are not "set and forget." They require active management

If you own GLXY stock:

• ✅ This trade is worth noticing. A 6,800-contract institutional put purchase on a stock that has run 60% in a month is a legitimate yellow flag
• 📊 Consider whether you want to reduce size at current levels, especially if you are sitting on gains from the April/May rally
• 🎯 The $27.50 gamma level is your near-term line in the sand — a clean break below that with Bitcoin weakness is a signal to re-evaluate

If you are watching from the sidelines:

• ⏰ Bitcoin is the leading indicator — watch BTC before watching GLXY
• 🎯 If GLXY pulls back toward $25–$26, that aligns with the next meaningful gamma support and would represent a more attractive long entry than today's $27.58
• 📅 The real fundamental catalyst comes in late July / early August 2026 when Q2 2026 earnings are expected — that is when the first Helios lease revenue shows up in reported numbers and the ≈$90M preliminary Q2 EBITDA guidance either gets confirmed or revised

If you are bearish:

• 🎯 The put buyer has already identified $28 as the strike. Breakeven is $26.19 — within the weekly implied range
• 📊 The path from $27.58 to $26 requires about a 5.7% move, which Bitcoin can deliver in a single volatile session
• ⚠️ Do not over-size short-dated options — they are high-precision instruments that require getting both direction and timing right simultaneously

Mark your calendar — Key dates:

• 📅 May 22, 2026 — Weekly options expiration (±$1.76 implied move from today)
• 📅 May 29, 2026 — Expiration of this $1.2M whale put trade
• 📅 June 30, 2026 — Target date for Helios Phase I full 133 MW delivery to CoreWeave — the binary data-center milestone
• 📅 June 19, 2026 — Monthly OPEX (±$7.61 implied move from today's spot)
• 📅 Late July / Early August 2026 — Q2 2026 earnings expected — first quarter with Helios Phase I lease revenue
• 📅 H1 2027 — Helios Phase II (≈260 MW) deliveries targeted to begin

Final verdict: Galaxy Digital is a genuinely interesting company at a real inflection point — the Helios pivot toward a >$1B/yr AI data-center annuity with ≈90% margins is a structural story if it executes. But the stock has already priced in a lot of that optimism in 11 trading days, and consensus analyst targets of ≈$39–41 sitting ≈40% above current prices do not mean the stock goes there in a straight line. The $1.2M put buyer is reminding us of that. Whether you agree with them or not, the trade is a signal: someone sophisticated thinks the next 11 days carry more risk than the recent price action suggests.

Respect the position. Watch Bitcoin. Let the chart tell the story.

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past unusual activity does not guarantee future returns. The Vol/OI ratio of ≈179 reflects the size of this specific trade relative to prior open interest — it does not predict the trade will be profitable or that you should follow it. Short-dated options (11 days to expiry) carry extreme time-decay risk and can go to zero rapidly. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial advisor before trading options. GLXY is a high-volatility stock with a 52-week range of ≈$16.43–$45.92; position sizing should reflect that reality.

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About Galaxy Digital: Galaxy Digital is a digital-asset financial services and infrastructure company listed on the NASDAQ Global Select Market. Its businesses include crypto trading, asset management (≈$5B AUM), staking, and the Helios AI/HPC data-center campus in West Texas, anchored by a 15-year, 526 MW CoreWeave lease targeting >$1 billion in average annual revenue at full ramp.