🐻 IDYA $1.1M Put Bet — The Other Side of Yesterday's $10.6M Butterfly Emerges

📅 April 7, 2026 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

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🎯 The Quick Take

One day after a $10.6M long call butterfly targeted the $40 zone by May 15, someone came in on the opposite side — buying 3,500 IDYA May 15 put contracts at the $22.5 strike for $1.1M in premium. With spot at $30.65, this $22.5 put sits 26.6% out of the money, requiring a severe drawdown before any intrinsic value appears. Real talk: this is either a hedge against yesterday's butterfly (capping downside on a Phase 3 trial failure) or a flat-out bearish directional bet that the OptimUM-02 data disappoints and IDEAYA Biosciences falls apart. Two days, two completely opposite bets, same expiry — buckle up.

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📊 Company Overview

IDEAYA Biosciences (IDYA) is a clinical-stage precision oncology company focused on synthetic lethality and targeted therapeutics:

• 🧬 What they do: Discovers and develops targeted cancer therapies for patients with specific genetic tumor profiles. Lead asset is darovasertib (IDE196), a PKC inhibitor targeting GNAQ/GNA11-mutated tumors, including metastatic uveal melanoma
• 💰 Market Cap: ~$2.5B
• 🏢 Sector: Biotechnology / Precision Oncology
• 📈 Exchange: NASDAQ
• 📊 Current Price: $30.65 (April 7, 2026 at time of trade)
• 💵 Cash Runway: $1.05B as of December 31, 2025 — funded to 2030
• 🎯 Binary Moment: OptimUM-02 Phase 2/3 topline PFS data is due imminently — database lock confirmed in the first half of April. This is the defining catalyst in the company's history

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 The Tape

🤓 What This Actually Means

Let me decode this trade carefully, because it requires context from yesterday.

The raw facts:

• 🐻 3,500 contracts of the $22.5 May 15 put, bought at MID at $3.00 per share
• 💸 Total premium: $3.00 × 100 × 3,500 = $1,050,000 (~$1.1M)
• 📊 Vol/OI ratio: 5,000 volume vs OI of just 2 — a 2,500x ratio. Someone effectively created this entire position from nothing today
• 🎯 Strike distance: $22.5 vs $30.65 spot = 26.6% below current price
• ⏰ 38 days to expiration (May 15, 2026) — same exact expiry as yesterday's $10.6M butterfly
• 🤝 MID fill: Executed at the midpoint — textbook institutional block negotiation

The 48-hour context: Yesterday (April 6), someone built a $10.6M long call butterfly centered on the $40 strike, expiring May 15:

• Bought 12,000 × $40 calls, sold 6,000 × $35 calls, sold 6,000 × $45 calls
• Maximum profit if IDYA rallies ~+23% to land near $40 by expiration
• Structured to have near-zero net premium at risk if the trial fails

Today, a different trader (or possibly the same one) buys $22.5 puts — the opposite directional bet using the same expiration.

Two interpretations, and why both matter:

🦋 Interpretation 1: This is a hedge against the butterfly

The April 6 butterfly trader's worst case is a complete trial failure and 40-60% stock collapse. The $22.5 put at $3.00 provides catastrophic coverage below $22.5. If IDYA trades to $15-$18 on a failed Phase 3, these puts could be worth $7-$12 each — turning a 2,500x Vol/OI unusual buying event into protection on a $10.6M position. The butterfly's near-zero cost structure is now reinforced with a downside tail hedge.

The butterfly achieves max profit near $40. The $22.5 put protects below $22.5. Together, these two positions create an asymmetric structure: profit if the trial is a moderate-to-strong positive, protection if the trial collapses the stock.

🐻 Interpretation 2: This is a standalone bearish directional bet

Alternatively — and this is the darker read — someone is simply betting that OptimUM-02 fails. A Phase 3 failure in rare disease oncology typically drives 40-60%+ single-session drops. From $30.65, a 40% drop puts IDYA at ~$18. At $18, the $22.5 put is worth $4.50 at expiration — a 50% gain on the $3.00 premium. At $15 (a brutal failure scenario), the put is worth $7.50 — a 150% gain.

This is not a conservative hedge. $1.1M at $3.00 per contract on a strike 26.6% OTM is a bet that something goes seriously wrong.

Why the bearish read deserves respect:

The stock has already sold off from recent highs. Today, April 7, spot is $30.65 vs yesterday's $32.43 when the butterfly printed — a roughly -5.5% move in one day. The market itself is voting bearishly. Someone paying $3.00 for $22.5 puts with IV elevated into a data event is implicitly saying: the market's fear is understated, and I want a ticket to the really bad outcome.

The unusualness of this trade:

• 🎯 Vol/OI of 2,500x — these two existing open interest contracts were essentially rounding errors. This is a brand new position, not a roll or adjustment
• 💥 $22.5 is a strike 26.6% OTM with only 38 days to expiry — for this to have intrinsic value at expiration, IDYA needs to drop more than the entire April implied move range in just over five weeks
• 🤝 MID fill: not a panicked retail order. Someone negotiated this at midpoint, suggesting conviction and patience in execution

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance

IDYA has experienced significant volatility consistent with a binary clinical-stage biotech:

• 📉 Sharp recent sell-off: Trading at $30.65 today vs analyst consensus targets of $50-$52 — a ~40% discount to the Street's view. The stock continues to slide
• 🌊 Macro + biotech headwinds: The broader April 2026 risk-off environment driven by tariff uncertainty and growth fears has punished the biotech sector indiscriminately. IDYA is caught in that undertow on top of its own binary trial risk
• 📉 Day-over-day decline: $32.43 at yesterday's butterfly print → $30.65 at today's put print — down 5.5% in 24 hours. The stock is weakening into the data window
• 🎯 $30 round-number level: The stock is sitting right at the major psychological $30 level. A break below with the data coming would accelerate selling rapidly
• 🔔 No established downside floor below $30 from a technical standpoint — the put buyer is targeting territory below the lowest gamma support level on the chart

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: $31.08 (as of gamma data timestamp)

The gamma exposure map for IDYA reveals a critical picture for the put trade:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):

• $30.00 — Strongest put gamma support (put GEX: 0.292B, net GEX: -0.233B)
  • Distance: 3.5% below current price
  • This is the only meaningful gamma support floor below spot. Dealer hedging flows provide some stabilization here
  • 🚨 Critical insight: If the OptimUM-02 data is negative, $30 gamma support will be completely overwhelmed. Biotech Phase 3 failures do not "stop" at technical gamma levels — they gap through them
• $25.00 — Secondary put gamma support (total GEX: 0.074B)
  • Distance: 19.5% below current price
  • Thin support at a much lower level — still well above the $22.5 put strike

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):

• $35.00 — Dominant call gamma resistance (call GEX: 1.395B, net GEX: +1.287B)
  • Distance: 12.6% above current price
  • This is the same level that was the lower short strike in yesterday's butterfly — heavy dealer gamma resistance caps any rally attempt

Net GEX Bias: Bullish overall (3.10B total call GEX vs 0.82B put GEX) — but this bias is essentially meaningless if the trial data is negative. A Phase 3 failure trumps any gamma structure.

Put buyer's read on the gamma map: The $22.5 strike sits 26.6% below spot, completely below any gamma support levels ($30, $25). The put buyer is explicitly not counting on the gamma structure to hold. They are buying tail risk — the scenario where all gamma floors are violated and the stock reprices to a "pipeline company without its lead asset" valuation.

Implied Move Analysis

Options market pricing as of April 7, 2026:

📊 The market is pricing a ±14.1% move for IDYA through the April 17 OPEX — reflecting the imminent OptimUM-02 data readout.

🔑 Translation for today's put trade:

The April implied move puts the lower bound at $26.76. The $22.5 put strike sits $4.26 below that lower bound. The put buyer is betting on a move worse than what the options market is currently pricing for the next 10 days — and holding through May 15 to let the full damage unfold.

For the put to generate profit at expiration, IDYA needs to close below the breakeven of $19.50 ($22.5 - $3.00 premium paid). That represents a 36.4% decline from today's spot. To be clear: the April implied move prices a 14.1% downside. This put starts making money at 36.4% down. That is a severe crash bet, not a moderate hedge.

Unless it is being held as tail insurance for the butterfly, in which case its cost ($1.1M vs the butterfly's $10.6M stake) is simply the price of catastrophic protection.

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🎪 Catalysts

🔥 The Primary Catalyst: OptimUM-02 Phase 2/3 Topline PFS Data — ANY DAY NOW 🚨

This is the event both the April 6 butterfly AND today's put are positioned around:

• 📋 What it is: The Phase 2/3 OptimUM-02 registrational trial evaluates darovasertib + crizotinib vs. standard of care in first-line HLA*A2-negative metastatic uveal melanoma
• 👥 435 patients enrolled across 60+ global sites
• 📊 130 BICR-confirmed PFS events — the predefined trigger for the primary analysis
• 📅 Database lock: Confirmed by IDEAYA on March 22 as first half of April 2026 — meaning topline results are expected within days to weeks
• ⚠️ Today is April 7 — we may be in the data window right now

The put buyer's bear case for this trial:

Phase 3 trials fail at a meaningful rate even with strong Phase 1/2 signals. The delay from end-of-March to first half of April, while described as logistical, can occasionally reflect complexity in the data lock process. Additionally, the control arm in a rare disease like metastatic uveal melanoma can perform better than historical benchmarks in a randomized trial setting — shrinking the separation between arms.

Prior Phase 1/2 data showed median PFS of ~7 months vs ~3 months control — a compelling signal. But Phase 3 replication of Phase 2 success is not guaranteed, especially in a rare cancer population with high heterogeneity.

If the trial fails:

• 📉 Stock likely drops 40-60%+ in a single session from $30.65
• 🎯 $30 gamma support gets destroyed instantly
• 📊 At -40%: stock at ~$18.40 → put intrinsic value = $4.10 (vs $3.00 paid)
• 📊 At -55%: stock at ~$13.80 → put intrinsic value = $8.70 (vs $3.00 paid)
• 📊 At -60%: stock at ~$12.25 → put intrinsic value = $10.25 (vs $3.00 paid)

🔥 Upcoming Catalysts

Q1 2026 Earnings — ~May 5, 2026 📊

Expected within the May 15 options window:

• Cash burn and updated runway guidance
• Pipeline updates across nine clinical programs
• Any early regulatory interaction updates if OptimUM-02 data is positive and a filing is initiated

Bank of America Healthcare Conference — May 12, 2026 🎤

Three days before expiration — a potential forum for management to discuss the data readout outcome and next steps.

May 15, 2026 — Expiration Date 📅

Both the April 6 $10.6M butterfly and today's $1.1M put expire on this date. The same trader (or trading entity) may be expressing a complete range-bound options structure: profit between $35 and $45, catastrophic protection below $22.5.

✅ Recent Catalysts (Already Happened)

April 6, 2026 — $10.6M Call Butterfly 🦋

The direct predecessor to today's trade. A sophisticated institutional entity built a near-zero-cost long call butterfly centered on the $40 strike for May 15 expiry. Maximum profit ~$40; all legs executed at MID in 52 seconds; Vol/OI ratios of 75-86x on all legs.

March 30, 2026 — First-Patient-In for IDE849 and IDE161 Studies 🔬

Two additional programs entered clinical dosing just one week ago. Even if OptimUM-02 disappoints, the broader pipeline continues advancing.

February 17, 2026 — Q4 2025 / Full Year 2025 Earnings 💰

IDEAYA reported Q4 net loss of $83.3M (36% improvement YoY) and a $1.05B cash position through 2030. The company has no near-term financing risk regardless of the trial outcome.

March 22, 2026 — Database Lock Delay Announcement 📋

IDEAYA disclosed the OptimUM-02 database lock was pushed from end-of-March to first half of April. RBC Capital reiterated its buy rating on the delay, treating it as procedural. But the delay added uncertainty and contributed to the stock's continued slide from $32+ to $30.65 today.

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, implied move data, the catalyst calendar, and the two-day options positioning picture:

📈 Bull Case — Positive OptimUM-02 Data (40% probability)

Target: $40-$55+

• ✅ Statistically significant PFS improvement confirmed in the randomized trial
• 🚀 Accelerated approval filing initiated in the US — first-ever approved mUM therapy
• 📈 Stock rallies 25-70%+ consistent with rare disease Phase 3 success dynamics
• 💰 Today's put expires worthless — the $1.1M is lost
• 🦋 Yesterday's butterfly achieves maximum profit near $40 — up to ~$2.4-$3M gain on the butterfly spread
• 🎯 Net position (butterfly + put hedge): substantial profit minus $1.1M hedge cost

🎯 Base Case — Modest Positive / Mixed Signal (35% probability)

Target: $33-$40 range

• ✅ Data is directionally positive but without overwhelming statistical separation
• 📊 Stock bounces 10-25% — reaches $34-$38
• 💰 Today's $22.5 put expires worthless
• 🦋 Butterfly achieves partial profit in the $35-$40 zone
• 📊 The $35 gamma resistance wall is the key hurdle to watch — a decisive break above triggers the butterfly's profit zone

📉 Bear Case — Negative Data (25% probability)

Target: $12-$22

• 😰 OptimUM-02 misses the primary PFS endpoint — trial fails
• 📉 Stock collapses 40-60%+ in a single session from $30.65
• 💥 At $18.40 (-40%): $22.5 put intrinsic value = $4.10 → 37% gain on the $3.00 entry
• 💥 At $15.00 (-51%): $22.5 put intrinsic value = $7.50 → 150% gain
• 💥 At $12.00 (-61%): $22.5 put intrinsic value = $10.50 → 250% gain
• 🛡️ Butterfly expires near-zero — but the butterfly was structured to be near-zero cost, so the only real monetary loss is the $1.1M put premium if the butterfly was already credit-neutral
• ⚠️ $30 gamma support obliterated; $25 secondary support overwhelmed; stock reprices to pipeline-without-lead-asset valuation

Put breakeven at expiration: $19.50 (requires a 36.4% decline from today's $30.65 spot)

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: "Tail Insurance Without the Casino Bet" — Bear Put Spread

Play: Buy the IDYA May 15 $27.5 puts, sell the May 15 $22.5 puts

Structure: $27.5/$22.5 debit put spread — same expiration, same lower strike as today's unusual trade

Why this works:

• 🛡️ Captures downside exposure at a much lower premium than buying outright $22.5 puts
• 💰 Max profit: $5 wide spread minus net debit — meaningful payout if IDYA falls below $22.5
• 📊 Breakeven at approximately $26.50-$27.00 — only a 12-14% decline needed vs 36.4% for the institutional put
• ⏰ Same 38-day window captures the data readout and Q1 earnings
• 🎯 The lower strike matches the institutional trade — you're in the same zone they're targeting

Position sizing: Risk no more than 2% of portfolio. 10 spreads at ~$1.50 each = $1,500 at risk for $3,500 max profit.

Risk level: Moderate (defined risk, binary catalyst) | Skill level: Intermediate

⚖️ Balanced: "Both Sides of the Trade" — Synthetic Strangle Position

Play: Own a small piece of both the bull and bear case: buy the IDYA May 15 $35 calls and buy the May 15 $25 puts

Why this works:

• 🎢 IDYA is going to have a violent move one way or the other — this captures either direction
• 🦋 The call side aligns with the institutional butterfly's thesis
• 🐻 The put side aligns with today's unusual bearish activity
• 💡 You don't need to guess direction — you need the stock to move significantly, which is highly likely given an imminent Phase 3 readout
• ⏰ Time is your enemy after the data drops (IV crush), so sizing matters

The catch:

• 💸 You pay for both sides — the cost of the strangle is what you need to overcome
• 📊 If the stock barely moves on the data (unlikely), you lose on both legs
• ⏰ Post-catalyst IV crush can hurt both legs even if the stock moves favorably

Position sizing: 5 contracts on each side — keep total premium to under 3% of portfolio.

Risk level: Moderate (defined premium at risk, binary event capture) | Skill level: Intermediate

🚀 Aggressive: "Fade the Butterfly — Pure Bearish Conviction" — May $25 Puts

Play: Buy IDYA May 15 $25 puts outright — closer to the money than the institutional $22.5 strike

Why this works:

• 💥 If the trial fails, IDYA falls 40-60% and $25 puts generate 2-4x returns quickly
• 🎯 $25 is closer to the gamma secondary support and to the $26.76 lower bound of the April implied move — less extreme a bet than $22.5
• 📊 Higher delta than the $22.5 puts — more responsive to the initial stock move
• 🐻 Two consecutive days of bearish action (stock down 5.5% from yesterday, today's put buying) suggest the sentiment has shifted

Why it will blow up if wrong:

• 💸 If data is positive and the stock gaps to $40-$45, these puts go to zero instantly
• ⏰ IV crush after the event destroys premium regardless of direction
• 📉 A 36.4% decline is required to generate meaningful profit on the $22.5 institutional puts; $25 puts still need a substantial 20%+ decline to generate solid intrinsic value at expiration

Position sizing: Maximum 1-2% of portfolio. 10 contracts at current premium — you must be prepared to lose the full amount.

Risk level: VERY HIGH (100% loss if trial succeeds) | Skill level: Advanced

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⚠️ Risk Factors

The scenarios that blow up each side of this trade:

• 🧪 Binary trial risk cuts both ways: A positive OptimUM-02 readout destroys today's $1.1M put position completely. The $22.5 puts will go to near-zero the morning the positive data is announced. This is not a slow decay — it is instantaneous if the news is good
• 💸 Breakeven requires a crash: The $22.5 put needs IDYA below $19.50 at expiration to profit — a 36.4% decline from today. That is an extreme outcome even for a failed Phase 3 trial. The stock has $1.05B in cash (~$13/share) providing a hard floor; the pipeline beyond OptimUM-02 provides additional residual value above cash. Getting to $19.50 requires not just a trial failure but a significant repricing of all remaining pipeline value
• ⏰ Timing uncertainty: The data could drop April 7-15 or later. Days of uncertainty before the announcement mean daily theta decay on all May 15 options. At $3.00 per contract with 38 days to expiry, daily theta erosion reduces value steadily while you wait
• 📊 IV crush post-event: When OptimUM-02 data is announced, implied volatility will collapse — regardless of the outcome. If IDYA falls only 25% on a trial miss, the $22.5 put will still have significant intrinsic value ($5.15), but the time value component evaporates. This actually helps the put holder since intrinsic value dominates at that point — but a 25% drop with 35 days left produces a different P&L than a 25% drop on the final day
• 🤔 The hedge interpretation changes the analysis: If this put is simply catastrophic downside insurance on the $10.6M butterfly, then the position management is completely different. The butterfly trader is not hoping to profit on the put — they are paying $1.1M to ensure that a total trial failure does not destroy the entire position. From that lens, buying $22.5 puts is actually conservative portfolio management, not an aggressive bearish bet
• 🌍 Macro environment is already bearish: The broader April 2026 tariff-driven risk-off environment has punished biotech. If macro conditions worsen between now and the data announcement, IDYA could slide further on pure sector pressure — making the put timing look prescient even if trial data is positive but arrives in a down market
• ⚔️ Competing trial landscape: Even if OptimUM-02 misses in HLAA2-negative mUM, Immunocore's tebentafusp data in HLAA2-positive mUM exists as a read-across. The two populations don't directly compete, but broader mUM sentiment could shift
• 📊 Vol/OI anomaly and regulatory scrutiny: With a 2,500x Vol/OI ratio on a stock with an imminent binary catalyst, this trade will attract regulatory attention. If the trade is legitimate (as this analysis assumes), the execution is simply institutional conviction. But the combination of yesterday's butterfly and today's puts around the same expiry on the same ticker creates a pattern that compliance teams monitor

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: In 48 hours, we have watched someone buy the entire options book on IDEAYA Biosciences — first the bull side ($10.6M call butterfly targeting $40), then the bear side ($1.1M deep OTM puts at $22.5). Both trades expire May 15. Both are at the MID. Both were from near-zero open interest. This is a coordinated positioning event, and the most logical interpretation is that one sophisticated entity is building a complete options position around the binary OptimUM-02 data readout.

What the combined positioning tells us:

• 🦋 The butterfly says: "I believe this trial is positive, and I want maximum reward near $40"
• 🐻 The puts say: "But if I'm wrong, I want protection against catastrophic downside below $22.5"
• 💡 Together, they create a long butterfly + long put structure — a position that profits significantly on a moderate-to-strong positive outcome ($35-$45 range) while limiting catastrophic loss if the trial fails and the stock craters below $22.5

The net cost of the combined strategy:

• Day 1 butterfly: ~$0 net (near-zero debit, possibly small credit)
• Day 2 puts: -$1.1M in premium paid
• Total outlay: roughly $1.1M deployed across both trades
• Maximum theoretical reward on a $40 settlement: $2.4-$3M on the butterfly, puts expire worthless
• Risk/reward: Roughly 2-3x the investment on the primary scenario, while the catastrophic failure scenario loses only the $1.1M put premium (butterfly expires at zero cost)

The question for today's put buyer (whether it's the same entity or a separate bear):

Is the $22.5 strike really where you want tail protection, or where you believe the stock will trade? At 26.6% OTM with only 38 days, you need a truly catastrophic trial failure to profit. The stock has $13/share in cash — the realistic floor on a trial failure is probably $15-$20, not sub-$19.50. The hedge interpretation makes sense. The pure bear directional bet interpretation is an extremely aggressive call.

If you are positioned bearishly on IDYA:

• ⚠️ Buying OTM puts this far out of the money into a binary event means paying IV-inflated premium for a deep OTM outcome — that is a high-cost strategy
• 📊 Consider a put spread instead — buy the $27.5 or $25 put, sell the $22.5 put to reduce cost; you still profit if the stock crashes, but you pay far less in premium
• 🎯 A failed Phase 3 produces an immediate violent move — you may be able to close the position at a significant profit within the first hour of trading post-announcement without holding to expiry

If you are positioned bullishly (aligned with the butterfly):

• ✅ The $30 gamma support is the key technical level to watch ahead of the data
• 📈 A break below $30 on continued macro weakness or a premature negative signal would be a warning sign
• ⏰ Mark the April 7-15 window as the highest-probability data announcement period

Key dates:

• 📅 April 7-15, 2026 — OptimUM-02 topline PFS data expected — the binary moment
• 📅 April 17, 2026 — Monthly OPEX (options market pricing ±14.1% move by this date)
• 📅 ~May 5, 2026 — Q1 2026 earnings
• 📅 May 12, 2026 — Bank of America Healthcare Conference
• 📅 May 15, 2026 — THIS PUT EXPIRES (and the butterfly from yesterday)

Final verdict: Two days, two completely opposite options positions, same expiration — IDEAYA Biosciences is at the center of one of the most carefully constructed binary-event option structures we have seen. Whether this is the same entity hedging a $10.6M butterfly or a separate trader making a bold bearish call, $1.1M buying the $22.5 put 26.6% OTM with 38 days to data is not a casual trade. Someone has a very strong view, and May 15 will tell us who was right.

The data is coming. Position accordingly — and size it like it might go to zero. 🧬

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Binary biotech events surrounding clinical trial readouts are among the highest-risk options trading scenarios — positions can lose 100% of their value overnight. Deep out-of-the-money put options have a low probability of profit at expiration and require significant adverse moves in the underlying stock to generate returns. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading. Past options activity does not guarantee future stock performance.

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About IDEAYA Biosciences: IDEAYA Biosciences is a precision medicine oncology company discovering and developing targeted therapeutics for patients with specific genetic profiles, with a focus on synthetic lethality biology. Lead asset darovasertib (IDE196) holds FDA Breakthrough Therapy and Fast Track designations and is being evaluated in three Phase 3 registrational trials in uveal melanoma. The company holds $1.05B in cash with runway to 2030 and a market cap of approximately $2.5B. NASDAQ: IDYA.