🐋 NBIS ≈$9.8M Jan-2027 LEAP Call — A Desk Bets on Nebius' AI-Cloud ARR Ramp to $310

Last updated: 2026-06-08

✅ RESOLVED — Next-Day OI Update (2026-06-08): ✅ The $310 call OI rose 2,742 → 4,294 (+1,552) — the bullish LEAP call opened as predicted. Read confirmed.

📅 June 5, 2026 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

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🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just wrote a ≈$9.8 MILLION check for NBIS call options that don't expire for more than seven months — and the strike is ≈29% above where the stock trades today. This desk bought 1,550 contracts of the Jan-2027 $310 LEAP call on Nebius Group, the NVIDIA-backed "neocloud" that just printed Q1 2026 revenue up +684% YoY and reiterated a $7–9B ARR exit target for the year. Translation: a negotiated block printed with a known counterparty, betting that the Microsoft + Meta contracted backlog and relentless capacity ramp carry NBIS toward $310 by January 2027.

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📊 Company Overview

Nebius Group (NBIS) is an AI-infrastructure company — a GPU cloud "neocloud" — that builds and operates its own data centers rather than reselling hyperscaler capacity. It is the renamed corporate successor to the international assets of Yandex following the 2024 restructuring that separated the Russian operating business. The group is backed by NVIDIA, which holds a ≈$2B equity stake, and CEO Jensen Huang has publicly praised the neocloud model.

• Market Cap: ≈$58–60B (as of June 2026) — Robinhood / Capital.com
• Industry: Technology / AI Infrastructure / GPU-as-a-Service (neocloud)
• Current Price: ≈$240.20 (spot at time of trade); 52-week range ≈$41.40 – $278.84
• ATH: $274.80 on June 1, 2026 — just four days ago — Stockanalysis
• YTD 2025 Run-Up: ≈1,000% off early-2025 lows on the AI data-center build-out

Beyond the core AI cloud, Nebius holds strategic stakes in Toloka (data-labeling / AI-training data), Avride (autonomous driving), and ClickHouse (>25% stake, reportedly valued at ≈$15B). The company also acquired Eigen AI for ≈$643M. Real talk: this is not a simple cloud reseller — Nebius is building the physical infrastructure of the AI economy.

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 The Tape (June 5, 2026 @ 10:52:15)

Flow-type note: 🤝 BLOCK CROSS — this trade printed as a single-leg negotiated cross. A broker matched a buyer and seller off the open book; there is a known counterparty on the other side. This is not an aggressive lit sweep. The desk paid $63.50 per contract in a facilitated, pre-arranged block — "crossed," not chased.

Order type (classifier): ⏳ Provisional BTO (Long Call) — MEDIUM confidence. Volume 1,600 (≈1,550 size) vs prior OI 2,700 means size alone cannot prove open vs. close. No prior-position archive hit found in a 180-day lookback; the classifier leans BTO consistent with a fresh open. Next-day OI is the definitive test. Treat as provisional.

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⏳ Come Back Tomorrow — OI Double-Check Required

This trade's open/close status is unresolved today.

Volume (1,600) is less than prior open interest (2,700). That means this print is size-ambiguous: it could be opening a new long position (BTO) or partially closing an existing one (STC). The tape alone cannot prove which.

What to watch:

Come back the next trading day pre-market (≈06:30 ET) for the OPRA OI update. If OI on NBIS20270115C310 rises by roughly +1,550, the bullish opening bet is confirmed. If OI falls by roughly −1,550, this was profit-taking or a position exit — and the bullish framing needs to be reconsidered. Do not trade the headline before that confirmation.

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🤓 What This Actually Means — Plain English

Let's break this down step by step.

What is a LEAP call? A LEAP (Long-term Equity AnticiPation Security) is a call option with an expiration more than one year away — in this case, January 15, 2027, which is ≈224 days out. The buyer pays $63.50 per contract today, and the option gives them the right to buy 100 shares of NBIS at $310 any time before expiration. If NBIS is above $310 on expiry, the option has real (intrinsic) value. If NBIS stays below $310, the $63.50 premium paid is gone.

The numbers that matter:

• ≈1,550 contracts × 100 shares × $63.50 = ≈$9.8M in premium paid
• Breakeven at expiration: $310 + $63.50 = $373.50 (NBIS needs to trade ≈55.5% above today's $240.20 spot to break even at expiry)
• The $310 strike is ≈29% above today's $240.20 spot — this is OUT OF THE MONEY
• Per-contract $63.50 ≈ 26.4% of NBIS' current stock price — paying roughly one-quarter of the stock price for this option
• Delta ≈0.30–0.35 (estimated on a ≈29%-OTM 7-month option): Each contract behaves like holding ≈30–35 shares. Total notional delta-equivalent: 1,550 × 100 × 0.32 ≈ 49,600 share-equivalent at $240.20 = ≈$11.9M of notional stock exposure

Why a LEAP instead of just buying stock? Leverage. Buying 1,550 × 100 = 155,000 shares outright at $240.20 would cost ≈$37.2M — about four times the LEAP premium. The LEAP gives you significant directional sensitivity for ≈$9.8M. If NBIS hits $310 and the option goes deep-in-the-money, the position could be worth well over $20M+. The downside: if NBIS is below $310 on January 15, 2027, the entire $9.8M premium is zero.

What is a Block Cross, and why does it matter? A block cross is NOT the same as an aggressive investor "slamming" a buy order into the market. It means a broker matched this buyer with a willing seller off the open book — both sides agreed on price beforehand. The ≈$9.8M "changed hands" between two parties who negotiated privately. That's important context: we cannot know which side (buyer or seller) is the "smart money" expressing a directional view. The buyer is paying for a bullish call; the seller collected premium. Weigh open/close and strike geometry over the raw headline premium.

The NBIS ARR ramp thesis — this is the core bet: Nebius exited Q1 2026 at a ≈$1.9B ARR run-rate and management reiterated a $7–9B ARR exit target for 2026. That is a roughly 4–5× ARR jump in a single year, anchored by a ≈$46B contracted backlog from Microsoft ($17.4–19.4B) and Meta (up to ≈$27B). The $310 LEAP call is a bet that the combination of that contracted demand, new capacity coming online (current capacity is sold out), and continued Q2/Q3 ARR progression pushes NBIS ≈29% higher — and then some — between now and January 2027.

What happens inside the 7-month LEAP window: Two full earnings prints (Q2 in early August, Q3 in November). Pennsylvania 1.2 GW facility ramping. Meta's Vera Rubin build beginning in early 2027. Every capacity MW that comes online directly converts to revenue on a sold-out backlog. This desk is betting that by January 2027, the ARR trajectory and analyst upgrades (Citi is already at $287) are close enough to a $310 stock price to make the option valuable.

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance

NBIS has had a phenomenal run in 2026 — off roughly 1,000% from early-2025 lows and printing an all-time high of $274.80 on June 1. As of the trade date the stock is at $240.20, pulling back roughly ≈12–13% from that ATH. The $220 gamma support floor (see below) is the nearest line in the sand. A hold above $220 keeps the uptrend structure intact; a break below puts $210 and $200 in play.

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Gamma-Based Support & Resistance

Current Price: ≈$223.67 (per GEX snapshot; trade spot ≈$240.20 — note the GEX was computed slightly earlier in the session)

Important note on gamma data depth: NBIS is a high-beta neocloud name with a still-growing options market. The gamma walls are present but thinner in absolute dollar terms compared to mega-cap names — treat these as directional signals, not ironclad floors/ceilings.

🔵 Put Gamma Support (Blue Bars — Downside Floors):

• $220 — Strong support wall, 7.46 total GEX with net GEX −3.83 (put-dominant). The largest single level on the board. Market makers carry significant put gamma here and will buy NBIS aggressively if price approaches $220. This is the key near-term floor.
• $210 — Moderate support, 3.70 total GEX, net GEX −2.32 (put-dominant). Second layer of defense ≈6% below.
• $200 — Moderate support, 4.06 total GEX, net GEX −0.53. The psychological $200 round number also carries meaningful gamma.

🟠 Call Gamma Resistance (Orange Bars — Overhead Sellers):

• $230 — Moderate resistance, 3.41 total GEX, net GEX +0.19 (slightly call-dominant). First overhead speed bump ≈2.8% above the GEX snapshot price.
• $240 — Call gamma wall, 1.14 total GEX, net GEX +0.68 (call-dominant). Near-term ceiling near today's trade spot.
• $250 — Moderate resistance, 1.43 total GEX, net GEX +0.74. Next target if $240 clears.
• $300 — Notable call wall, 1.12 total GEX, net GEX +1.04 (call-dominant). A significant milestone ≈35% above current price — directly relevant to the $310 LEAP target.

What this means for you: NBIS is currently resting on the $220 gamma support floor (Strong) after pulling back from the ATH. That $220 level is where the most aggressive market-maker put hedging kicks in — expect buyers to show up around there. Above spot, the $230–$240 zone is moderate resistance, then $250 above that. The $300 call wall is the gamma-relevant gateway to the $310 LEAP strike — clearing $300 with momentum is a major milestone for this trade.

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Implied Move Analysis

The options market is pricing in substantial volatility across all timeframes for NBIS — consistent with a high-momentum AI neocloud in the middle of a massive capacity ramp.

Key implied-move ranges (from the Jan-2027 LEAP perspective):

Critical observation: The July 17 OPEX upper range of $307.32 is just below the $310 LEAP strike. This means options pricing is already allowing for NBIS reaching near the $310 strike on a one-standard-deviation move by mid-July. That's the market's own implied volatility saying: the move to $310 is not a coin-flip long shot — it's within the distribution. This gives context for why the ≈29%-OTM call is priced at $63.50 (≈26% of spot): NBIS's IV is high enough that the market assigns material probability to that outcome.

For the bull case: Q2 ARR beat in early August + capacity milestones could push NBIS into the $270–310 zone by September (the implied ±60% quarterly range allows for $358 on the upside).

For the bear case: The lower bound of the monthly range ($139.58 for July) is a reminder that NBIS is a volatile AI-cycle stock that has shown 30%+ drawdowns inside uptrends. The $220 gamma floor is the first stop if things go wrong.

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🎪 Catalysts

✅ Already Happened — In the Books

• Q1 2026 Earnings (May 13, 2026): Group revenue $399M, +684% YoY and +75% QoQ; Nebius AI revenue $390M (+841% YoY). AI-cloud ARR reached ≈$1.9B run-rate, up ≈50–54% QoQ from ≈$1.25B at year-end 2025.
• EBITDA Turned Positive: Adjusted EBITDA $130M group, ≈32% margin; Nebius AI segment margin expanded to 45% from 24% in Q4 2025.
• 2026 Guidance Reiterated: ARR $7–9B, group revenue $3.0–3.4B, EBITDA margin ≈40%. Capex RAISED to $20–25B (from $16–20B) to pre-fund 2027 capacity.
• Meta ≈$27B 5-Year Deal (March 2026): Up to ≈$27B over 5 years — ≈$12B dedicated capacity plus up to ≈$15B more — built on NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform with deliveries starting early 2027. The earlier ≈$3B Meta contract (Dec 2025) was delivered on time.
• Microsoft $17.4–19.4B 5-Year Deal: First tranche delivered on time November 2025; remaining capacity on schedule. Combined Microsoft + Meta backlog ≈$46B.
• Capacity Sold Out, 4 GW Contracted: Current available capacity is fully sold out; 4 GW contracted power capacity including a new 1.2 GW Pennsylvania facility; targeting 2.5 GW online by end-2026.
• $6B+ Capital Raised YTD 2026: ≈$4.3B in convertible notes at 1.25%–2.60% coupons; cash position ≈$9.3B.
• Analyst Upgrades (post-Q1): Citigroup reset to $287, Buy (from $169); Citizens $270; Northland $248; DA Davidson $250; BofA $240 — all buy-equivalent.
• All-Time High $274.80 (June 1, 2026): Just four sessions before this trade printed. The stock pulled back ≈12–13% from that ATH, setting up a potential re-test.

🚀 Upcoming Catalysts — Inside the Jan-2027 LEAP Window

• Q2 2026 Earnings — expected early-to-mid August 2026: Watch for ARR progression toward the $7–9B exit target, capex pace within $20–25B, and EBITDA margin trajectory toward ≈40%. Q1 ARR was ≈$1.9B — Q2 needs to show a clear path toward $3–4B+ run-rate by year-end to validate the guidance.
• Capacity online milestones (2H 2026): The Pennsylvania 1.2 GW facility ramps (250–300 MW by end-2027); Finland expansion continues. Every new MW that comes online directly converts to revenue since current capacity is fully sold out — a sold-out backlog means new capacity = new dollars immediately.
• Q3 2026 Earnings — expected November 2026: A second ARR/capacity print before the LEAP expiration; this is the most important data point for LEAP holders.
• New hyperscaler / large-AI-lab contracts: The recurring catalyst that has driven the stock — additional contracts beyond the Microsoft + Meta base would be a re-rating event.
• Monetization of ClickHouse / Toloka stakes: ClickHouse reportedly valued at ≈$15B; a strategic monetization of these stakes would fund capex without diluting equity.
• NVIDIA Vera Rubin deployment milestones: The Meta build starts on Vera Rubin in early 2027 — progress updates in H2 2026 could re-rate the stock ahead of the start date.
• Continued analyst target migration: With Citi at $287 and the consensus Buy, further upgrades on a Q2/Q3 beat could pull street price targets toward and beyond the $310 LEAP strike.

Analyst PT snapshot:

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative — "Wait for the OI Confirmation, Then Play the Gamma Floor"

For investors with $2K-$20K portfolio, entry-level options traders

Real talk: before doing anything, wait for tomorrow morning's OI snapshot (≈06:30 ET). If OI on NBIS20270115C310 rises from ≈2,700 toward ≈4,250 (up ≈+1,550), the BTO is confirmed and the bullish framing is on solid ground. If OI falls, this was a close — and the narrative inverts.

After confirmation, the conservative path:

• 📅 Consider NBIS long stock on a pullback toward the $220 gamma floor (Strong support, 7.46 total GEX — the strongest single level on the board)
• 🎯 The $220 level is where market-maker put hedging is most active; a test-and-hold is a clean risk-defined long entry
• 🛡️ Second support at $210 (Moderate, 3.70 GEX) — if $220 cracks, this is the next floor

Why this works: NBIS stock gives you direct exposure to the ARR ramp story without time-decay risk. If Q2 ARR beats in August, you benefit. You can always add call exposure after the Q2 print.

Cost: Stock position. No theta decay.

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⚖️ Balanced — "The Near-Term Bull Call Spread Into Q2 Earnings"

For swing traders with $5K-$30K, 2-3 month horizon

If you believe the Q2 ARR beat is coming (expected early August 2026), a bull call spread targeting the $250–$270 resistance zone captures the near-term setup at a fraction of the LEAP cost.

Structure (illustrative — verify live prices before trading):

• 📈 Buy NBIS $250 Call, 2026-09-18 expiration
• 📉 Sell NBIS $270 Call, 2026-09-18 expiration (limits cost, defines risk)
• 💰 Net debit: ≈$6–9 per spread (estimate; verify live)
• 🎯 Max profit: ≈$11–14 per spread if NBIS is above $270 at September OPEX
• ⚠️ Max loss: the net debit paid

Why this works: The $250 and $270 levels are meaningful call-gamma resistance zones (per the implied-move cone, $265–$276 is the weekly upper end, $307 is the July OPEX upper range). A Q2 beat + capacity milestone commentary could punch through $250 and approach $270. The spread limits damage if NBIS stays rangebound below $250 through September.

Key dates: Q2 earnings early August. Q3 earnings November. Both are catalysts inside the September OPEX window.

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🚀 Aggressive — "Copy the Desk, Scaled Down"

For experienced LEAP traders with genuine multi-month conviction, $3K-$15K

The desk bought the 2027-01-15 $310 Call at $63.50. If you share the thesis — ARR ramp from $1.9B toward $7B, sold-out capacity, Microsoft/Meta backlog executing — you can buy a smaller lot of the same LEAP.

The math, scaled down:

• 💸 1 contract × $63.50 × 100 = $6,350 out-of-pocket
• 🎯 Delta-equivalent to ≈30–35 NBIS shares (≈$7,200–$8,400 notional)
• 📈 Breakeven at expiration: $373.50 (≈55.5% above today's $240.20)
• 🚀 If NBIS hits $310 before expiry, the LEAP has intrinsic value of $0 (at-the-money) but significant remaining extrinsic value — you could be up substantially if NBIS moves to $280–$300 in 3–4 months
• 💀 Max loss: $6,350 (entire premium) per contract if NBIS is below $310 on January 15, 2027

YOLO version: 2–3 contracts = ≈$12.7K–$19.1K for a 60–105 share-equivalent delta. This is the "all-in on the Nebius ARR-ramp thesis" trade.

Critical warning: The implied-move cone shows the monthly OPEX upper range near $307 — meaning the market considers $310 a stretch but within the distribution. The breakeven of $373.50, however, is well beyond all analyst targets. This option requires NBIS to run ≈55% from here just to break even at expiration — it's a conviction bet, not a high-probability trade.

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🎲 Price Targets & Scenarios Through January 2027

Using gamma levels, the implied-move cone, and the catalyst calendar above:

📈 Bull Case (25–30% probability by Jan 2027)

Target: $310–$375+

How NBIS gets there: Q2 2026 ARR print shows clear trajectory toward $5–6B run-rate. Pennsylvania capacity starts contributing material MW in H2. New hyperscaler contracts announced. Analyst targets migrate toward and above $287 Citi PT — eventually crossing $310. Stock re-tests and breaks through the $274.80 ATH, sustains above $275, and pushes toward $310 on the momentum + ARR beat combination.

LEAP P&L in bull case:

• NBIS at $310: At-the-money at expiry — option has zero intrinsic value but may retain extrinsic value before Jan 15. You'd be near breakeven or at a loss on the $63.50 premium
• NBIS at $373.50: Full breakeven — option intrinsic value equals premium paid
• NBIS at $400: Intrinsic value $90/contract. Net gain per contract ≈$26.50 or ≈42% on $63.50 premium
• NBIS above $400: Meaningful gains — every $10 above $373.50 is $1,000 per contract in profit

🎯 Base Case (45% probability)

Target: $250–$290 range by Jan 2027

NBIS executes solidly — Q2/Q3 2026 beats at the ARR level, capacity ramps on schedule, no new hyperscaler wins beyond the existing backlog. ARR grows toward $4–5B by year-end — solid execution but below the high end of guidance. Stock trades between $250 and $290, above today's $240.20 but below the $310 strike.

LEAP P&L in base case:

• NBIS at $280 by Jan 2027: Still $30 below strike. Option expires worthless. Full $63.50 loss per contract. The stock goes up 17% and the LEAP buyer still loses everything. This is the hidden danger of OTM LEAP calls.

📉 Bear Case (25–30% probability)

Target: below $200 — near-total LEAP loss

AI capex cycle cools materially in H2 2026. Microsoft or Meta renegotiates or delays contract delivery schedules. Financing conditions tighten as NBIS needs additional capital beyond the $6B+ already raised. Morgan Stanley's $144 Equal-weight thesis plays out.

LEAP P&L in bear case:

• NBIS at $200 or below: LEAP expires worthless → 100% loss of $9.8M premium for the desk, or $6,350 per contract for retail

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⚠️ Risk Factors & Honest Limits

What the tape CANNOT tell us:

• BTO vs. STC (open/close): Volume 1,600 < prior OI 2,700. We cannot prove from today's tape alone whether this is a new opening long (BTO) or a partial closing of an existing long (STC). The next-morning OI snapshot is the only definitive test. Do not act on the bullish framing until OI confirms.
• Block cross counterparty: We do not know who sold these contracts. A known counterparty took the other side in this negotiated block — they may have a completely different view. The buyer is expressing a bullish directional view; the seller collected ≈$9.8M in premium and may be hedging an existing long stock position or expressing a bearish / neutral view. We only see one side.
• Broker, trader identity, and motive: The tape shows the print. It does not tell us the account, the institution, or whether this is a hedge against a large existing NBIS long position, a speculative bet, or a corporate hedging strategy.

Structural risk factors:

• 🏭 Capex intensity / financing dependency: $20–25B of 2026 capex vastly exceeds revenue; the model depends on continuous debt and equity issuance (already $6B+ raised in 2026). Any capital-markets tightening, rising interest rates, or credit-market stress hits the build-out directly.
• 🤝 Customer concentration: The contracted backlog leans overwhelmingly on Microsoft and Meta. A renegotiation, delay, or capacity dispute with either customer would be a material negative event for a company at this revenue scale.
• 🤖 AI-cycle / demand risk: A slowdown in hyperscaler AI capex spending (Broadcom custom ASICs, DeepSeek-style efficiency improvements compressing GPU demand) would pressure ARR economics and the timeline to the $7–9B target. Morgan Stanley's $144 Equal-weight implies this bear case has a credible analytical basis.
• ⚡ Execution risk on power / data centers: Hitting 2.5 GW online by end-2026 and 4 GW contracted requires on-time MW delivery. The 1.2 GW Pennsylvania facility ramps gradually (250–300 MW by end-2027) — infrastructure build-outs routinely face permitting, supply chain, or construction delays.
• 📉 Strike 29% above spot; breakeven 55.5% above: The $310 strike sits above every current analyst price target except the most aggressive interpretation of the Citi $287 PT. For the LEAP to be profitable at expiration, NBIS needs to reach $373.50 — a level not on any current analyst's base-case model. This is a genuine "needs-further-re-rating" bet, not a high-probability directional trade.
• 📊 Volatility and drawdown history: NBIS has already shown 30%+ drawdowns inside its 2025–2026 uptrend. The stock is currently ≈12–13% off its ATH. A 30% drawdown from $274.80 would put NBIS at ≈$192 — well below the $220 gamma floor and a painful scenario for LEAP holders who paid $63.50 per contract.

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Here's the deal: A desk just crossed ≈$9.8M in premium on NBIS Jan-2027 $310 calls — a facilitated block with a known counterparty, not an aggressive lit sweep. The thesis is clear: the $7–9B ARR target, the sold-out capacity backlog from Microsoft and Meta, and the accelerating quarterly cadence of capacity brings-onlines all point to NBIS re-rating higher into early 2027. The $310 strike is above all current analyst targets, but that's the point — this is a bet that the ARR ramp surprises to the upside enough to pull the stock to new highs before January.

What this trade tells us:

• 🤝 This was a negotiated block — a buyer and seller agreed on price before the print. Do not read this as "institutional aggression"; read it as "a desk has a multi-month view on NBIS ARR trajectory"
• 📅 The January 2027 expiry covers two full earnings prints (Q2 in August, Q3 in November) — exactly the two data points that will prove or disprove the $7–9B ARR guidance
• 💡 The implied-move cone independently validates the $310 level as within the distribution — not a lottery ticket, but not a slam dunk either
• ⏳ The BTO vs STC ambiguity is real — come back tomorrow for the OI check before sizing any position around this flow

If you hold NBIS stock:

• ✅ This LEAP flow is directionally bullish long-term confirmation — but it's a cross, not an aggressive sweep, so don't over-read the urgency
• 🎯 Watch the $220 gamma floor (Strong, 7.46 total GEX) as the near-term line in the sand; a hold above $220 keeps the structure intact
• 📈 The $250–$300 zone is the battleground for the bull case; $300 is the key call-gamma gateway to the $310 LEAP strike

If you're watching from the sidelines:

• 📅 Tomorrow morning (≈06:30 ET) — Check NBIS Jan-2027 $310 OI; BTO confirmed if OI rises toward ≈4,250
• 📅 Early-to-mid August 2026 — Q2 earnings is the single biggest near-term catalyst inside this LEAP window. An ARR print showing clear trajectory toward $5–6B run-rate could re-rate the stock materially
• 🎯 The $220 gamma floor is the near-term long entry signal for stock; a test-and-hold is the cleanest risk-managed setup

Mark your calendar:

• 📅 June 6, 2026 pre-market (≈06:30 ET) — Check NBIS Jan-2027 $310 OI to confirm BTO vs STC
• 📅 Early-to-mid August 2026 — Q2 2026 earnings (ARR vs. $7–9B guide is the critical number)
• 📅 November 2026 — Q3 2026 earnings (last earnings print before Jan-2027 LEAP expiration)
• 📅 End-2026 — Watch for 2.5 GW capacity online milestone and any new hyperscaler contract announcements
• 📅 January 15, 2027 — LEAP expiration date

Final verdict: The Nebius LEAP call represents a conviction bet on one of the clearest demand-visibility stories in AI infrastructure — a ≈$50B backlog, sold-out capacity, and a company that just printed +684% YoY revenue growth. But it is also a $310 strike on a $240 stock, with a $373.50 breakeven — you need ≈55% appreciation just to break even at expiry. The block-cross structure means a known counterparty took the other side. Come back tomorrow for the OI confirmation, and be honest with yourself about whether the $373.50 breakeven is consistent with your time horizon and risk tolerance.

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Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. LEAP calls can expire entirely worthless — a $63.50 per contract premium (≈$9.8M total) is 100% at risk if NBIS trades below $310 on January 15, 2027. The breakeven at expiration is $373.50 — approximately 55.5% above the current spot price. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. The order-type classification (BTO) is provisional (MEDIUM confidence) and depends on the June 6, 2026 OPRA OI snapshot for confirmation. Vol/OI ratio 0.59 means open vs. close cannot be determined from today's tape alone. Past unusual options activity does not guarantee profitable trading outcomes. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before trading.

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Last updated: 2026-06-05

About Nebius Group: Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) is an AI-infrastructure ("neocloud") company that builds and operates its own GPU data centers, offering cloud compute directly to AI labs and hyperscalers. Backed by NVIDIA (≈$2B stake), the company was spun out of the international assets of Yandex in 2024. Market cap ≈$58–60B. Q1 2026 group revenue: $399M (+684% YoY). Core AI-cloud ARR: ≈$1.9B run-rate. 2026 ARR target: $7–9B. Contracted backlog: ≈$50B (Microsoft + Meta). Sector: Technology / AI Infrastructure.