🥇 NEM $1.1M Near-Dated Call Bet — Somebody's Positioning for a Gold Bounce

📅 July 1, 2026 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

✅ Updated 2026-07-02: next-day OPRA OI confirms the OPEN — see the RESOLVED box.

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🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just paid $1.1 million for near-dated NEM call options this morning, betting the world's largest gold miner rallies above ≈$101 by July 17 — a 16-day window. The position was placed through a facilitated price-improvement auction, with the block coming in at ≈13× the existing open interest — and next-day OPRA OI has now confirmed it as a fresh opening bet. With NEM down ≈25% since February as gold retreats from its January all-time high, this buyer is making a contrarian short-term wager that the gold-price selloff is overdone and a bounce is coming — and coming fast.

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📊 Company Overview

Newmont Corporation (NEM) is the world's largest gold producer, a Denver-based mining company with Tier 1 operations spanning North America, South America, Australia, Africa, and Papua New Guinea:

• Market Cap: ≈$99.7 billion (≈$100B)
• Current Price: ≈$93–$95 (spot ≈$94.95 at the time of the trade)
• Industry: Basic Materials — Gold Mining (NYSE: NEM; also ASX: NEM)
• 52-Week Range: $55.37 – $134.88
• Byproducts: copper, silver, lead, and zinc alongside primary gold output

Why NEM moves: Newmont is essentially a leveraged play on the gold price. When gold rises, NEM tends to outperform the metal itself; when gold falls, NEM typically falls harder. The company delivered a record $3.1 billion of quarterly free cash flow in Q1 2026, yet the stock has lost ≈25% since late February as gold retraced sharply from its all-time high of ≈$5,414/oz in January 2026 toward the $4,000 area, driven by an unexpectedly hawkish Federal Reserve. Excellent company fundamentals, tough macro environment — that's the tension this trade is betting on resolving to the upside.

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

At 10:05 ET on July 1, 2026, a trader placed a ≈$1.1M call purchase on Newmont through a facilitated price-improvement auction — a broker-routed order where the 4,980-contract block was exposed for price improvement and matched with a counterparty off the displayed order book. Here is the full tape:

Flow Tag: Facilitated Price-Improvement Auction — a broker matched buyer and counterparty off the open book; NOT an urgent lit sweep of the order book.

Key numbers at a glance:

• 💰 Premium paid: ≈$1.1M ($2.17 per share × 4,980 contracts × 100 shares per contract)
• 🎯 Breakeven at expiry: $99 + $2.17 = ≈$101.17 (NEM must rally ≈6.6% from ≈$94.95)
• ⏰ Time remaining: 16 days until the July 17, 2026 expiry
• 📊 Prior open interest: just 384 contracts — the 4,980-contract block is ≈13× the prior OI

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✅ Open / Close — RESOLVED: July 2 Pre-Market OPRA OI Confirms an OPEN

The July 2 pre-market OPRA snapshot (reflecting July 1 EOD) is now in. Verdict: OPEN CONFIRMED.

OI rose by ≈5,351 ≈ the 5,000-contract print — a confirmed new opening long-call position (BTO).

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🤓 What This Actually Means — Plain English

Let's decode this for regular folks.

A trader paid $2.17 per share (or $217 per contract) for the right to buy 4,980 × 100 = 498,000 NEM shares at $99 any time before July 17. That is a pure directional bet that NEM goes UP — specifically, above $101.17 — within the next 16 days.

Why $99? At the time of the trade, NEM was trading at ≈$94.95. The $99 call is ≈4.3% out of the money — not deeply buried in the money, but not so far away it requires a major move either. It's a classic short-dated speculative call: cheap enough per contract to put on a large position for $1.1M, but far enough away that it only pays off with a real move in gold and NEM.

The math in plain English:

• 📈 If NEM hits $105 by July 17: each call worth ≈$6.00 → profit ≈$1.9M (≈175% return)
• 📈 If NEM hits $103 (near the options-implied upper range): each call worth ≈$4.00 → profit ≈$912K (≈83% return)
• 🎯 If NEM is exactly $101.17: breakeven, no profit no loss
• 📉 If NEM stays below $99 at expiry: calls expire worthless → entire $1.1M lost

This is a gold-price call, not an earnings play. Here is the critical thing to understand: Q2 2026 earnings are expected the week of July 23–29 — about one week after this trade expires on July 17. The buyer is NOT holding for the earnings report. They want a quick bounce in gold and NEM before the Q2 results even come out. If gold does not move by July 17, this position expires worthless regardless of how strong Q2 numbers eventually are.

The big picture thesis: NEM has fallen ≈25% since February 2026 as gold retraced from ≈$5,414/oz in January toward the $4,000 area on a hawkish Fed repricing. This buyer appears to believe that pullback is overdone — that gold is due for a near-term bounce, and NEM (as the highest-beta large-cap gold vehicle) will overshoot to the upside when gold recovers.

Mechanism note: This trade came in as a facilitated price-improvement auction. That means a broker worked the 4,980-contract order and found a counterparty willing to sell at $2.17, off the displayed order book. It did NOT involve urgently sweeping through multiple price levels of the lit order book. Think of it as a negotiated block — both sides agreed to a price before the trade printed. This does NOT change the bullish read (the buyer still wants NEM up), but it does mean we should not frame this as frantic buying pressure. It is a deliberate, positioned wager.

What is proven vs. what we can only infer:

• ✅ PROVEN: 4,980 contracts bought at $2.17, facilitated price-improvement auction, 13× prior OI — next-day OPRA OI confirmed the OPEN (BTO)
• 🔍 INFERRED: The buyer is bullish on NEM and gold through July 17; this reads as a directional call bet
• ❓ UNKNOWABLE: Whether this buyer holds other positions (stock, gold futures, other miners) that make this a piece of a larger strategy; the buyer's identity; whether they have views beyond the July 17 window

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

NEM has been a rollercoaster in 2026. The stock rode gold's January all-time high of ≈$5,414/oz to levels above $130, then sold off sharply — losing ≈25% since late February — as gold retreated and the Fed turned hawkish. Recent price action has NEM in the low-to-mid $90s after briefly recovering to above $110 in early June before falling again. The 52-week range ($55.37 – $134.88) tells the whole story: this is a high-volatility, gold-price-leveraged stock that can swing dramatically based on interest rate expectations and the dollar. We are currently in the pullback phase, and the call buyer is betting on a reversal.

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Gamma-Based Support and Resistance Analysis

The gamma exposure map shows where market makers have the heaviest positioning — these are the levels where dealers will systematically buy or sell to hedge their books, creating natural floors and ceilings for the stock:

🟠 Resistance Levels Above Current Price (≈$94.47):

• $95.0 — Immediate overhead resistance, just ≈0.6% away. The heaviest nearby gamma node (total gamma: 4.08). Heavy put gamma (3.13) vs call gamma (0.95) means market makers are carrying large short-put positions near here, creating natural drag on any rally attempt through this level. The call buyer needs to clear this first.
• $97.5 — Secondary friction zone (total gamma: 1.58, heavy put gamma 1.43). Another resistance band before the key $99 strike.
• $100.0 — The primary round-number resistance and meaningful gamma wall (total gamma: 4.47, ≈5.9% above current price). This is the key level for the call trade. Breaking through $100 and holding would be a significant technical development — and puts NEM within reach of the $101.17 breakeven. Market makers have both put and call gamma here, making it a contested zone.
• $105.0 — Extended resistance further out (total gamma: 3.26), ≈11% above current price. A bull-case destination if $100 is cleared.

🔵 Support Levels Below Current Price:

• $92.5 — Immediate support, ≈2.1% below current price (total gamma: 2.42). Very heavy put gamma (2.34) creates a strong natural floor — market makers will buy dips aggressively here to hedge their short-put exposure.
• $90.0 — Deeper support (total gamma: 2.03, put gamma 1.88). If $92.5 gives way, this is the next meaningful floor. An important level to watch for anyone holding NEM stock.
• $87.5 — Extended support zone (total gamma: 1.05). A broader cushion if things get more difficult.
• $85.0 — Major structural floor (total gamma: 1.06, put gamma 0.93). Think of this as the line in the sand on the downside — massive put open interest here would trigger heavy dealer buying.

What this means for the $99 call trade: The gamma map tells us NEM faces two moderate resistance nodes on its way to profitability: first $95, then $100. Neither is an impenetrable wall, but both represent friction points where market-maker selling pressure tends to pick up. On the downside, the support structure is solid ($92.5, $90, $87.5, $85) — which limits the bear case somewhat but does nothing to help the call trade, which only wins above $101.17.

Net GEX Bias: Slightly put-dominated across most nearby strikes — dealers are net long puts below the market, which provides cushioning on the downside but creates headwinds for rallies as stock rises into call-gamma levels.

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Implied Move Analysis

The options market is collectively pricing these expected moves for NEM at upcoming expirations:

The key insight for this trade: The options market prices a ±9.18% move through July 17 expiry. The upper range of $103.13 is above the $101.17 breakeven — meaning the market does acknowledge a move to profitability is within the priced range. But it is near the outer edge. The $99 call at $2.17 currently carries roughly a 20–25% implied probability of expiring in the money — a short-odds, defined-risk bet with an outsized payout if gold cooperates quickly.

Translation for regular folks: The market says NEM could end up anywhere from $86 to $103 by July 17. The call trade only wins above $101.17, which is in the upper ≈20% of that distribution. This is a high-risk, high-reward structure — most outcomes result in a loss, but a gold-driven surge to $103+ delivers an 83%+ return on the $1.1M wager in 16 days.

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🎪 Catalysts

🔥 Near-Term (Before July 17 Expiry — What the Trade Needs)

Gold Price / Fed Real-Rate Path — The Dominant Driver

Everything for this trade hinges on gold in the next 16 days. Gold has pulled back from its January 2026 all-time high of ≈$5,414/oz toward the $4,000 area as the Federal Reserve pivoted hawkish — markets now price no cuts and even a possible 2026 rate hike (first potentially September), which pressures gold via higher real yields. Any surprise shift in that narrative in the next two weeks could be the catalyst:

• Dovish surprise: soft CPI print, weak payrolls, or growth scare that revives rate-cut expectations → gold bounces, NEM rallies
• Geopolitical spike: safe-haven flight from Middle East or other escalation → gold jumps quickly
• Street forecasts are wildly split: Goldman Sachs cut its end-2026 gold target to $4,900/oz (from $5,400), while J.P. Morgan still sees a path to $6,000/oz by year-end — the bull and bear cases are enormous

Analyst Sentiment Pressure Point (June 29, 2026)

UBS cut its NEM price target to $120 from $140 on June 29, 2026 — just two days before this trade — reflecting the softer gold tape. Yet the median Street target is still ≈$145 (17 Buy / 3 Hold / 1 Sell across ≈29 analysts; Barclays at $133, Bernstein at $157). The gap between ≈$94.95 and the ≈$145 median target is enormous — any stabilization in gold could trigger rapid re-rating.

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📅 Upcoming (After July 17 Expiry — Key for Longer-Term Holders)

Q2 2026 Earnings — Expected July 23–29 (One Week After Expiry)

Q2 2026 earnings are expected the week of July 23–29, 2026, approximately one week after this call trade expires. The call buyer cannot benefit from a strong Q2 print — this trade lives or dies on the pre-earnings gold price movement. Consensus points to strong YoY earnings growth. Key metrics for the earnings event (which matters for stock holders and longer-dated options):

• Realized gold price vs the ≈$4,000–4,300 spot band during Q2
• AISC trajectory vs the $1,680/oz FY2026 guidance (Q1 AISC was $1,029/oz — a step-up is expected)
• Free cash flow run-rate after Q1's record $3.1B
• Buyback pace against the remaining ≈$2.4B authorization

FY2026 Production and Capital Return Execution

Management guided 5.26M attributable gold oz in 2026 (a planned trough year from Boddington and Ahafo South sequencing), with gold AISC of $1,680/oz, sustaining capex $1.95B, and development capex $1.40B. With the $6.0B buyback authorization and $1.1B/year dividend, steady capital return execution is a visible backdrop catalyst each quarter.

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✅ Already Happened (Recent Catalysts)

Record Q1 2026 Earnings (April 23, 2026)

Newmont's Q1 2026 results were remarkable: revenue $7.3B (up ≈46% YoY), adjusted EPS $2.90 vs ≈$2.17 consensus (≈32% beat), gold AISC just $1,029/oz, and a record $3.1B quarterly free cash flow. The board also announced a new $6.0B share repurchase authorization. Despite this fundamentally strong print, the stock has fallen ≈25% since late February as gold retreated — illustrating that NEM's near-term price action is driven by gold and rates, not company execution.

Non-Core Divestiture Program Completed

Newmont completed its non-core divestiture program, generating ≈$4.5B in total after-tax proceeds from six operations (Musselwhite, Éléonore, Cripple Creek & Victor, Akyem, Porcupine, Telfer/Havieron). The portfolio is now streamlined to high-quality, long-life Tier 1 assets, improving average costs and free cash flow durability versus peers (Barrick, Agnico Eagle, AngloGold).

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🎲 Price Targets and Scenario Analysis (Through July 17)

Combining gamma levels, implied move data, and the catalyst backdrop:

📈 Bull Case — ≈20–25% Probability

NEM target: $101–$103

What has to happen: gold bounces from the ≈$4,000 area back toward $4,300+ on a dovish Fed surprise (soft CPI, weak payrolls) or a geopolitical safe-haven spike. NEM breaks through $95 gamma resistance, then the $100 psychological level. The implied-move upper range of $103.13 becomes the near-term ceiling.

Call P&L outcomes:

• NEM at $103: calls worth ≈$4.00 → profit ≈$912K (83% return on $1.1M)
• NEM at $105: calls worth ≈$6.00 → profit ≈$1.9M (175% return)
• NEM at $101.17: breakeven — zero profit, zero loss

Why only 20–25%: NEM needs a 6.6% rally in 16 days, crossing two resistance zones ($95, $100), while the macro environment (hawkish Fed, $4,000 gold) is currently working against that outcome. The implied move prices this scenario as possible but not the central case.

🎯 Base Case — ≈50–55% Probability

NEM range: $91–$98 (consolidation)

What happens: gold stays in the $4,000–$4,300 range, no major Fed catalyst materializes, NEM grinds sideways or slightly lower. The $92.50 gamma support holds. The $99 call expires out of the money — the entire $1.1M premium is lost.

This is the most likely outcome by pure probability: short-dated OTM calls have a high base rate of expiring worthless, and the macro backdrop is not currently favorable for a quick gold surge.

📉 Bear Case — ≈20–25% Probability

NEM target: $85–$91 (gold breaks lower)

What goes wrong: the Fed signals additional hawkishness or a 2026 rate-hike scenario solidifies, gold breaks below $4,000, and mining stocks sell off sharply. NEM approaches the $90 gamma support floor and possibly the $87.50 zone. The call expires deeply worthless. Full $1.1M loss.

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💡 Four Ways to Think About This Trade

🚀 YOLO Trader

"Riding the Bounce — Short-Dated Calls"

If you're feeling aggressive and agree with the gold-bounce thesis, you could take a small position in the same NEM $99 calls (Jul 17) — for example, 5–15 contracts for ≈$1,085–$3,255.

Why it could work: Gold miners are volatile. A single CPI print or geopolitical headline can move NEM 5–8% in a day. A move from $94.95 to $103 is not far-fetched if sentiment shifts quickly.

Why it's dangerous: You are paying for the upper ≈20–25% of outcomes. Time decay eats the premium daily. If nothing happens, you lose 100%. Do not size this position at more than 1–2% of your portfolio.

Position sizing: This is high-risk, very short-dated. Treat it as a lottery ticket, not a core position.

⚖️ Swing Trader

"Same Bullish Thesis, More Time — August or September Calls"

Same directional view on NEM/gold, but with more runway to be right. Consider NEM $100 or $105 calls expiring August 21 or September 18.

Why it makes sense: The September 18 triple-witch implied range is $74.45–$114.47 — a much wider potential move with 79 days of time value. Q2 earnings (July 23–29) become a tailwind rather than something you miss by expiring before them. More time = more chances for the Fed narrative to shift.

Structure ideas: Buy Aug $100 calls (capturing both the pre-earnings window and the earnings itself), or a Sep $95/$105 call spread for defined risk and a better risk/reward ratio. A call spread limits upside but costs meaningfully less per trade.

Key price targets: $103 (within July implied move upper range), $110–$115 (major call gamma zones at the September timescale).

🛡️ Premium Collector

"Sell Puts Into Support, Collect Premium While You Wait"

If you are bullish on NEM fundamentally but skeptical of a 16-day sprint, consider selling cash-secured puts at the gamma support levels rather than buying calls.

Example structure: Sell NEM $90 or $92.50 puts (Jul 17) and collect premium income. If NEM stays above those strikes, the puts expire worthless and you keep the premium. If NEM falls below, you get assigned — at prices supported by strong put-gamma floors.

Why it works here: You are targeting the $90–$92.50 zone where dealer hedging creates natural support, AND you get paid to wait. In a choppy market environment (the most likely scenario by base-case probability), selling premium beats buying it.

Risk: You need to be genuinely willing to own NEM stock at $90 if assigned. If gold breaks hard to $3,800, even the $90 floor could give way — mark-to-market loss on the short put.

🌱 Beginner (Just Getting Started with Options)

"Watch and Learn — Skip the 16-Day Call"

Buying near-dated OTM calls is one of the riskiest option structures for beginners. The math is stacked against you: ≈75–80% probability of expiring worthless, time decay every day, and a 6.6% rally required in 16 days. Our recommendation:

1. Watch this trade play out — bookmark this article and come back on July 17 to see if NEM crossed $101.17. Seeing real trades resolve (for free) is better education than losing money on your first options position.
2. If you want gold exposure, consider a small NEM stock position — no expiration risk, you can hold through Q2 earnings and beyond, and the stock yields steady buyback support at these levels.
3. Understand time decay: an option losing value every day even if the stock stays flat is called "theta burn." Watching it happen in real-time (without risking money) will teach you more than any textbook.
4. Paper trade first: most brokers offer paper trading (simulated) accounts. Run this exact NEM $99 call on paper through July 17 and watch how the P&L moves.

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Real talk on what could go wrong:

• ⏰ The 16-day clock is the biggest risk: Time decay (theta) works against the call buyer every single day. With only 16 days to expiry, NEM must move UP fast. A flat or grinding market means steadily eroding option value, even if nothing "bad" happens to the company or gold. This is perhaps the biggest structural headwind for the trade.

• 🏛️ Hawkish Fed is the dominant macro headwind: Markets now price possible 2026 rate hikes, not cuts. Higher real rates pressure gold, which pressures NEM. Any Fed speaker that reinforces the hawkish message, or any upside inflation surprise (hot CPI, strong payrolls), is an immediate negative catalyst. The buyer is swimming upstream on the macro.

• 📅 Earnings (July 23–29) are AFTER this trade expires: The call buyer will not benefit from a strong Q2 report if gold does not move before July 17. Even if Newmont reports blowout Q2 results the following week, this position has already expired. It is not an earnings trade — it is a pure pre-earnings gold-price bet.

• 💸 2026 AISC guide of $1,680/oz represents a meaningful cost step-up: Q1 2026 gold AISC came in at just $1,029/oz — impressive. But the FY2026 guidance of $1,680/oz reflects planned mine sequencing at Boddington and Ahafo South. If gold stays near $4,000 and costs step up toward $1,680, margins compress materially in H2, limiting any re-rating of the stock.

• 📉 2026 is a planned production-trough year: Management guided 5.26M attributable gold oz in 2026 — a deliberate trough from mine-sequencing, before volumes recover in 2027. In a trough production year, the stock's earnings leverage is 100% price-dependent. Gold needs to cooperate; volume will not bail out the thesis.

• 📊 Street targets are being cut: UBS lowered its NEM target to $120 from $140 on June 29, 2026, just two days before this trade. Additional target cuts as analysts mark to the softer gold tape could weigh on sentiment and create overhead pressure.

• 🔎 Tape note — a couple of minor multi-leg prints: The full OPRA tape for today's NEM options shows 2 small multi-leg prints alongside the dominant 4,980-contract single-leg facilitated auction. These are minor in size relative to the primary block. The dominant mechanism and direction (single-leg call buy, facilitated auction) are not changed by these ancillary prints, but we flag them for completeness.

• ❓ What the tape cannot tell us: We cannot know whether this buyer holds a larger portfolio position in NEM stock, gold futures, or other miners that makes this call purchase a piece of a bigger strategy. We can confirm the trade exists and was opened; we cannot confirm the full context. A trader who is long NEM stock and buying calls to add upside exposure is different from a standalone speculator — and the tape cannot distinguish between them.

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Here is the deal: Someone paid $1.1 million for a 16-day, ≈4% out-of-the-money call on the world's largest gold miner. This is a short-fuse, directional bet that Newmont — and by extension gold — bounces meaningfully in the next two weeks. The trade was placed through a facilitated price-improvement auction (a broker matched buyer and counterparty off the displayed order book), not an urgent sweep of the market. That does not change the bullish read — the buyer wants NEM up — but it is a calibrated, positioned wager rather than panic buying.

What has to happen for this trade to win:

• 📈 NEM rallies ≈6.6% from ≈$94.95 to the ≈$101.17 breakeven — and ideally to $103+ for real profit
• 🥇 That requires gold to bounce from the ≈$4,000 area toward $4,300–4,500
• 📅 It all must happen by July 17, 2026 — before Q2 earnings even come out

If you own NEM stock:

• The record Q1 free cash flow, $6.0B buyback, and ≈$145 median analyst target suggest the Street loves the long-term story even at $94
• Consider holding through Q2 earnings (July 23–29) — consensus points to strong YoY earnings growth
• The $92.50 and $90 gamma support levels are meaningful near-term floors; use them as risk-management anchors

If you are watching from the sidelines:

• The single most important variable is the Fed's real-rate path — any dovish data point (soft CPI, weak payrolls) over the next two weeks is the catalyst to watch
• Q2 earnings (July 23–29) is the next hard company-specific catalyst, even if this particular call trade does not capture it
• The median analyst target of ≈$145 vs a current price of ≈$94.95 is a wide gap — if gold stabilizes and the hawkish-Fed narrative fades, that discount has room to close

Mark your calendar — Key Dates:

• 📅 July 2 — Weekly OPEX (near-term implied range: $91.69–$97.23)
• 📅 July 17 — Monthly OPEX + this call trade expires (options-priced range: $85.79–$103.13)
• 📅 July 23–29 — Q2 2026 earnings expected (key event for longer-dated positions)
• 📅 September 18 — Quarterly triple witch (implied range by then: $74.45–$114.47)
• 📅 Any Fed speaker or CPI release — Real-time gold catalyst; watch closely through mid-July

Final verdict: Newmont is a world-class gold company generating record free cash flow, executing an aggressive buyback, and trading well below analyst targets. The fundamentals are genuinely strong. But the near-term price action is entirely a function of gold and the Fed — and gold is currently fighting a hawkish headwind. This NEM $99 call is a legitimate tactical contrarian bet on a gold bounce in 16 days. It has defined risk ($1.1M maximum loss), meaningful upside (83–175% return if gold cooperates), and a clear, binary outcome by July 17. Watch what gold does this week — that is your real signal.

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The NEM20260717C99 calls described here have a high probability of expiring worthless — out-of-the-money options with 16 days to expiry are high-risk, short-duration instruments. The ≈$1.1M premium paid represents the maximum loss on this position. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading options. Never risk capital you cannot afford to lose entirely.

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About Newmont Corporation: Newmont is the world's largest gold producer, with Tier 1 mining operations spanning North America, South America, Australia, Africa, and Papua New Guinea. Byproducts include copper, silver, lead, and zinc. With a market cap of ≈$99.7 billion and a streamlined portfolio following the completion of ≈$4.5B in non-core divestitures, NEM is the preferred large-cap gold equity vehicle for institutional investors seeking commodity-price exposure combined with a strong capital-return framework ($6.0B buyback + $1.1B/year dividend).

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Last updated: 2026-07-02 — open/close resolved via next-day OPRA OI (reflecting July 1 EOD).