🧬🔄 RARE $4.95M Bearish Put Roll — A Trader Chased Ultragenyx Higher, Rolling Up and Out Through Both FDA Verdicts

📅 July 9, 2026 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

🔄 INVERTED — corrected July 10, 2026. This article originally described this trade as a bearish put diagonal built around a fresh short put. The next-day OPRA open-interest snapshot proved that read wrong. The "sold" September $22.5 put was not a new short — it was a trader closing 6,000 long puts they already owned. Combined with the fresh October $30 put purchase, this is a put roll (sell-to-close + buy-to-open), not a diagonal spread. There is no short leg, no premium being harvested, and no assignment risk. The direction is still bearish — in fact more bearish. The structure, capital at risk, and thesis have all been rewritten below. See the resolution.

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🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just rolled a big bearish put position up and out on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) at 14:26:14 today, in a single facilitated multi-leg auction. They sold to close 6,000 September 18, 2026 $22.5 puts they already owned (collecting $1.97M) and bought to open 6,000 October 16, 2026 $30 puts (paying $4.95M) — a net $2.98M debit to reload.

Here's why that matters. RARE had rallied ≈18% in eight sessions, from $29.25 to $34.61. Those old September $22.5 puts were dying: 100% extrinsic value, deep out of the money, and — the killer — set to expire on September 18, exactly one day before the September 19 Sanfilippo (UX111) FDA verdict they were presumably bought for. They would have expired worthless the day before the event.

So the trader didn't harvest premium. They escaped a trap and doubled down. The new October $30 puts carry 65% more bearish delta (−164,820 vs −99,900 share-equivalents) and live through both FDA decisions — August 23 (DTX401) and September 19 (UX111). Translation: after the stock ran 18% against them, this trader paid nearly $3M more to stay short Ultragenyx — with a bigger position, a closer strike, and a longer clock.

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📊 Company Overview

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) is a commercial-stage rare-disease biotech based in Novato, California:

• Market Cap: ≈$3.5 Billion
• Sector / Industry: Healthcare — Biotechnology (rare/ultra-rare genetic disease)
• Current Price: ≈$34.58 (52-week range $18.29 – $42.37)
• Primary Business: Commercializes therapies for ultra-rare genetic diseases — Crysvita (burosumab), Dojolvi, Mepsevii, and Evkeeza fund a pipeline heavily weighted toward AAV gene therapies (DTX401, UX111, DTX301) and biologic/antisense programs (GTX-102, setrusumab)

Ultragenyx is unusually event-driven for a commercial-stage biotech: its near-term stock path is dominated by a cluster of binary FDA decisions rather than steady product-cycle news, which is exactly what shapes today's trade.

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

The Tape (July 9, 2026 @ 14:26:14 — both legs printed simultaneously as a multi-leg auction):

✏️ Correction (July 10, 2026): the SELL leg was originally labeled STO (sell to open) — a fresh short put. Next-day open interest proved it was STC (sell to close): the trader was liquidating puts they already owned. That single label change converts this trade from a diagonal spread into a roll, and it changes everything downstream.

Cash flow: $4.95M paid, $1.97M recovered → ≈$2.98M net debit. But note the framing: the $1.97M was not premium collected from a new short — it was salvage recovered from an old long position. The trader's live capital at risk is the full $4.95M of long October $30 puts, not a $2.98M spread.

🔎 Mechanism check: both legs printed at the exact same second as a multi-leg auction (a facilitated, worked complex order) — not a negotiated block cross and not a lit sweep. Because both legs belong to one packaged order, we know with confidence they are the same account doing one thing. What we can't read is urgency or "who hit the offer" the way we could on a single lit print — and on a worked complex order, per-leg aggressor tags are unreliable regardless.

✅ RESOLVED — The OI Inverted This Trade (updated July 10, 2026)

Yesterday we flagged the short leg as genuinely unresolved, and wrote: "OI rising toward ≈12,000 confirms a fresh opening short; OI falling toward ≈0 would mean this 'sold' leg was actually closing existing long puts."

Open interest fell. Hard.

Why this is airtight, not a judgment call. Open interest can only fall when a closing seller is matched with a closing buyer — a contract is extinguished. If our trader had been opening a short (STO) while the buyer closed a long, open interest would have been unchanged (a transfer). It fell by 4,773. Running the algebra against the day's volume (the entire day's volume in that contract was this one 6,000-lot print), the seller must have been long at least 4,773 contracts and closing them. Prior OI at that strike was exactly 6,000 — precisely our print size — so the clean reading is that the seller owned the entire open interest and closed all 6,000.

Meanwhile the October $30 put went from 1 contract to 6,001 — a perfect, unambiguous fresh open.

One order. Close 6,000 old puts, open 6,000 new ones. That is the textbook definition of a roll.

What changed, concretely:

The theta claim was backwards. We said the trader was collecting decay on the short leg. The tape says otherwise: the September $22.5 put carried a theta of −0.0429 and the October $30 put −0.0465 — both negative, which is what a long option holder pays, not what a short seller collects. They were bleeding time value on the old puts and are still bleeding it on the new ones. This is a directional bet financed by conviction, not by premium.

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🤓 What This Actually Means — Plain English

This is a put roll, and once you see it, the whole trade reads differently. Here's the decode:

What a roll is. A roll is one order that does two things at once: it closes a position you already have and opens a replacement. Here the trader sold to close 6,000 September $22.5 puts (STC) and bought to open 6,000 October $30 puts (BTO), in one packaged auction. They rolled up (from the $22.5 strike to the $30 strike) and out (from September 18 to October 16).

Why they had to do it — the old position was cornered. Two things had gone wrong with those September $22.5 puts:

1. The stock ran away from them. RARE climbed from $29.25 to $34.61 in eight sessions (≈+18%). A $22.5 put with the stock at $34.61 is ≈35% out of the money. Every cent of its $3.28 price was extrinsic value — pure time and volatility premium, zero intrinsic worth. It was a melting ice cube.
2. It expired one day too early. The September $22.5 put expired September 18. The UX111 (Sanfilippo) FDA verdict — the single biggest binary event on Ultragenyx's calendar, the one a bearish put position exists to capture — lands September 19. Their puts would have expired worthless the day before the event they were built for.

That second point is the one we got exactly backwards yesterday. We read the September 18 expiry as a clever design — a trader stepping aside before the coin flip. It wasn't a design at all. It was the flaw they were paying $2.98M to fix.

What they bought instead. The new October 16 $30 puts:

• Live through both FDA decisions — DTX401 (Aug 23) and UX111 (Sep 19) — plus they sit ahead of a possible GTX-102 (Angelman) Phase 3 readout guided to 2H 2026.
• Carry far more bearish punch. Delta went from −0.1665 per contract to −0.2747. Across 6,000 contracts that is a jump from ≈−99,900 to ≈−164,820 share-equivalents of short exposure — 65% more bearish.
• Sit much closer to the money. A $30 strike against a $34.61 stock needs a ≈13% decline to go in the money, versus ≈35% for the old $22.5 strike.
• Cost real money. $8.25 per contract, $4.95M total, breaking even at $21.75 by October 16 if held to expiration outright (a ≈37% decline from spot).

The intent, in one sentence: after an 18% rally chewed up their bearish position and left it expiring one day before the catalyst, this trader refused to give up the thesis — they liquidated the doomed puts, recovered $1.97M, and paid an additional $2.98M to rebuild the bet bigger, closer to the money, and long enough to actually see both FDA verdicts.

What is proven, and what is not (we grade this honestly):

• ✅ Proven by the tape and OI: both legs printed as one multi-leg auction at the same instant; the September put's open interest fell 4,773 on 6,000 volume (so the seller was closing a long); the October put's OI rose exactly 6,000 (a clean fresh open). It is a roll.
• 🔍 Inferred (strong): the roll is bearish and represents increased conviction — the delta, strike proximity, and tenor all moved the same direction, and they paid a net debit to do it.
• ❓ Unknowable from the tape: whether this is an outright directional bet or a hedge against long RARE stock or a long-call position sitting elsewhere. We cannot see the counterparty, the broker, the account's other holdings, or any equity leg. A bearish-looking option position is not proof of a bearish investor.

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

RARE has been a rollercoaster in 2026. The stock is roughly +46% YTD, but that number hides a violent round trip: setrusumab's Phase 3 Orbit/Cosmic trials missed their primary fracture-rate endpoint in late December 2025, and the stock plunged hard on the news. Since then, the market has effectively "reset" its attention onto the 2026 gene-therapy calendar — DTX401 and UX111 — which is why the stock has clawed back toward the upper half of its $18.29–$42.37 52-week range even as analyst price targets remain wildly dispersed ($45 to $96+).

Key observations:

• 🎢 Binary-driven, not fundamentals-driven: commercial revenue (Crysvita, Dojolvi) is steady, but the stock trades on pipeline headlines
• 📉 Late-2025 scar tissue: the setrusumab miss is still shaping sentiment — the market has been burned by a "should-have-worked" readout before
• 📊 Reset, not recovery: the 2026 rally reflects hope for DTX401/UX111 approvals, not confirmation of them yet

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

Current Price: ≈$34.52

RARE's options chain is thin relative to a mega-cap name (small float, small market cap), so treat these as relative support/resistance markers rather than precise dollar walls:

🔵 Put-Heavy Zones (Support-Leaning, Below/At Spot):

• $30 — the single largest concentration of put-side positioning in the visible chain, and exactly where the newly-opened Oct $30 put is struck. Not a coincidence — the trader rolled into a strike that's already a magnet for put open interest.
• $22.5 — second-largest put concentration, and exactly where the closed Sep $22.5 put was struck. Note: after this trade, that strike's open interest collapsed from 6,000 to 1,227, so this concentration is now substantially smaller than the chart above (built from pre-trade data) shows.
• $15 — a deeper, thinner put-dominant floor further out

🟠 Call-Leaning Zones (Resistance, At/Above Spot):

• $35 — the heaviest total gamma concentration in the whole chain sits just above current price, roughly balanced but tilted call-dominant — this is the near-term tug-of-war zone
• $32.5 — modestly call-tilted, right under spot
• $40 — a cleaner call-dominant ceiling further out

What this means for traders: Both strikes in today's roll ($30 and $22.5) line up with the chain's two biggest put-side concentrations — this trader isn't picking random numbers, they're working the strikes the market has already built the most put open interest around. The roll moved ≈6,000 contracts of put open interest from the $22.5 shelf up to the $30 shelf, thickening the strike nearest to spot.

Implied Move Analysis

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations:

• 📅 Monthly OPEX (Jul 17 — 8 days): ±7.35% (±$2.54) → Range: $31.97 – $37.05
• 📅 Quarterly-window pricing through Sep 18, 2026 (71 days — the SAME date the trader's OLD puts were set to expire): ±70.55% (±$24.35) → Range: $10.16 – $58.86

Translation for regular folks: for the next 8 days, options are pricing a fairly normal ±7% wobble. But stretch the horizon out to September 18 — the date the trader's old, now-closed puts would have expired — and the options market is pricing a jaw-dropping ±70% possible range, from $10.16 on the low end to $58.86 on the high end. That's not a typo — it's what happens when a biotech's option chain has to price in two FDA life-or-death decisions (DTX401 Aug 23, UX111 Sep 19) inside the same window. The $10.16 low end sits well below both put strikes — meaning the market itself assigns real, non-trivial odds to a sub-$22.50 stock, let alone sub-$30, by mid-September. That's exactly the tail this trader is positioned for — and exactly why letting a put expire on September 18, one day before the UX111 verdict, would have been such a costly miss.

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🎪 Catalysts

✅ Recent (Already Happened)

Q1 2026 Earnings — reported May 2026 📊 Revenue came in at $136M (Crysvita ≈$93M, Dojolvi ≈$18M), and EPS missed at −$1.84 vs. −$1.46 consensus, with the net loss widening to ≈$185M. Despite the miss, management reaffirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $730–$760M and a 2027 profitability target, and the stock actually rose post-print as attention pivoted to the pipeline.

The Setrusumab Miss — late December 2025 😰 Phase 3 Orbit and Cosmic studies for setrusumab (osteogenesis imperfecta) missed their primary fracture-rate endpoints (secondary bone-density endpoints did hit). The stock plunged on the news, and it's the reason the market has reset its focus almost entirely onto the 2026 gene-therapy binaries.

FDA BLA Acceptances — Feb & Apr 2026 DTX401 received Priority Review acceptance on Feb 23, 2026, setting the Aug 23 PDUFA. UX111's resubmitted BLA was accepted in April 2026, setting the Sep 19 PDUFA.

Analyst Repositioning (post-setrusumab reset) Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $96 (Overweight); Jefferies cut to $63 (Buy); Wells Fargo cut to $45 (Overweight); H.C. Wainwright set a $60 target. Consensus stays Buy-tilted but the $45–$96 dispersion tells you the Street itself is unsure how the binaries resolve.

🔥 Upcoming — Confirmed Dated Events (⚠️ these are catalysts, NOT the option expirations)

Q2 2026 Earnings — July 30, 2026 Watch Crysvita trajectory, the $730–$760M FY2026 guidance reaffirmation, cash runway, and management's framing of the two upcoming PDUFAs. TipRanks earnings calendar.

🎯 DTX401 (GSDIa) FDA PDUFA — August 23, 2026 The first of the two binaries. A Priority Review decision on the AAV8 gene therapy for glycogen storage disease type Ia, backed by the Phase 3 GlucoGene study (52 patients, up to 6 years follow-up). GlobeNewswire · BioSpace.

🎯 UX111 (Sanfilippo Type A) FDA PDUFA — September 19, 2026 The second, and — per this trade's structuring — the more feared binary. An AAV9 gene therapy for Sanfilippo A on the accelerated approval pathway. Ultragenyx IR · StockTitan 8-K. This lands exactly one day after the trader's now-closed Sep 18 puts would have expired — the timing flaw that appears to have driven today's roll. The newly-opened Oct 16 puts are alive through it.

🌫️ Upcoming — Timing-Window (Undated) Event

GTX-102 (Angelman Syndrome) Phase 3 "Aspire" Topline — Expected 2H 2026 129 patients randomized 1:1 vs. sham. High-magnitude but not date-pinned — it could land before or after the Oct 16 long put expires, making it a live tail risk sitting inside this trade's window regardless. ainvest coverage · SeekingAlpha.

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Combining the gamma map, the implied-move range, and the FDA calendar, here's how the window through October 16th could play out:

📈 Bull Case (≈30% probability)

Target: $45–$65

Both DTX401 (Aug 23) and UX111 (Sep 19) clear their PDUFAs without a Complete Response Letter, and Ultragenyx becomes a two-approval gene-therapy story in the same six-week window. This is the scenario several analysts ($60–$96 targets) are underwriting. The Oct $30 puts expire worthless and the trader loses the entire $4.95M. With no short leg to cushion it, this is the roll's worst case — and it is a bigger loss than the original diagonal read implied, because the whole position is now long premium.

🎯 Base Case (≈40% probability)

Target: $28–$40 (choppy, binary-to-binary)

One PDUFA clears, one gets delayed or a minor CRL, or approvals come with commercial ramp uncertainty. Stock chops between the $30 gamma zone and the $35 resistance zone as the market digests each headline separately. For the roll, this is a partial loss: the Oct $30 puts retain some extrinsic value into October but never go meaningfully in the money. The trader recovers a fraction of the $4.95M. Note there is no short leg financing anything — every dollar of decay is a dollar out of their pocket.

📉 Bear Case (≈30% probability)

Target: $15–$22 (tests or breaks both put strikes)

A CRL or clinical/manufacturing delay on either DTX401 or UX111 — AAV gene therapies carry an elevated CMC and clinical-benefit bar with FDA right now — sends the stock gapping toward or through the $30 put-heavy zone. The implied-move data already prices a low end of $10.16 by Sep 18 as a non-trivial possibility. This is precisely the scenario the roll was built to capture, and it now pays far more than the original structure would have. With 6,000 long $30 puts and no short leg capping the downside, a gap to $20 is worth roughly $6M of intrinsic value against a $4.95M cost — and a gap to $15 roughly $9M. The trader's decision to close the $22.5 puts rather than stay short them means there is no assignment risk and no capped payoff below $22.50. That is the whole point of the roll.

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💡 How Different Traders Might Read This

🎰 YOLO Trader

You want raw exposure to the FDA binaries. The confirmed structure is now simpler than we thought — it's just a long put position, no short leg. A small, tightly-sized long put expiring after Sep 19 (mirroring what this trader actually holds, e.g., a few Oct $30 puts) is the same bet in miniature. But respect what you're buying: at ≈159% implied volatility, you are paying a colossal premium for that optionality. If both PDUFAs clear, the puts go to zero — the trader loses all $4.95M, and you lose all of yours. Size at 1-2% of your account, max.

📊 Swing Trader

The lesson here isn't the position, it's the roll discipline. This trader let an 18% adverse move destroy their original thesis vehicle, then paid up to fix it rather than ride a doomed contract into expiration. If you carry directional options through catalysts, check that your expiration actually clears the event — the trader's original Sep 18 put expiring one day before the Sep 19 verdict is the exact mistake a calendar check prevents. If you want the trade itself, a defined-risk put vertical (buy $30, sell $22.5, same October expiry) caps your cost against a name pricing a ±70% range.

💰 Premium Collector

There is nothing here for you to copy — and that is the correction. Yesterday we described this trade as harvesting theta via a short put, and suggested it modeled good discipline. It does the opposite. Confirmed: this trader is long premium on both legs, paying decay (theta −0.0429 on the old puts, −0.0465 on the new). Nobody collected anything. If you're tempted to sell puts into a binary FDA event to collect that fat ≈159% IV, understand you'd be taking the other side of this trade — short a fat tail into a coin flip. Do it only with a defined-risk credit spread, never a naked short put, on a name that can gap 30%+ overnight.

🌱 Beginner

This is an advanced, multi-leg, binary-event trade — not a starting point. But it teaches one genuinely useful lesson: a "sell" in the options tape does not mean someone is bearish, and it doesn't mean they're collecting income. Here, a SELL order was a trader getting out of a position they owned. Only next-day open interest revealed which. Mark July 30 (earnings), August 23 (DTX401), and September 19 (UX111) on your calendar and simply watch how the stock behaves. If you want exposure, a tiny amount of stock — not options — held through one event, sized so a 30% overnight move wouldn't hurt you, is a far gentler way to learn.

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⚠️ Risk Factors

Don't get caught by these potential landmines:

• 🎲 Genuine binary risk, both directions: DTX401 (Aug 23) and UX111 (Sep 19) can each independently produce an approval, a Complete Response Letter, or a delay. AAV gene therapies face elevated FDA scrutiny on CMC and durability data right now — a CRL on either is a real, non-remote outcome, and the options market's own ±70% implied range through Sep 18 confirms the Street agrees.

• 🧩 Per-leg direction on a multi-leg auction is not the same as a lit-tape aggressor read. Both legs printed together as a facilitated complex order — we can read the structure with confidence, but we cannot infer "urgency" or "who initiated" the way we could from a single lit sweep.

• ✅❗ The open/close question is now resolved — and it inverted our original read. Size (6,000) equalled prior OI (6,000) on the Sep $22.5 put, so yesterday we could not prove open versus close and labeled it a provisional "STO." The July 10 OI snapshot settled it: OI fell to 1,227 (−4,773), proving the seller was closing a long. The trade is a roll (STC + BTO), not a diagonal. This is exactly why we never assert an order type from size alone when size ≤ prior OI — and it's why the ⏳ callout exists.

• 💸 The confirmed structure carries MORE risk than the original read implied, not less. A diagonal has a short leg cushioning the debit. A roll does not. The trader holds $4.95M of long puts with zero premium offset; if RARE holds above $30 through October 16, the entire amount is lost. Any reader who sized a position off yesterday's "net $3.0M debit" framing was understating the capital genuinely at risk by ≈66%.

• 👻 No visibility into counterparty, book, or hedges. OPRA data can't tell us whether this is a single institution's directional bet, a market-maker's risk-neutral facilitation of client flow, or a piece of a larger portfolio hedge (e.g., against a long stock or long-call position elsewhere). We also can't see any equity or other-derivative leg that might accompany it.

• 🏦 Thin, small-cap options chain. RARE's ≈$3.5B market cap means its option chain has far less standing open interest and liquidity than a mega-cap name — gamma "walls" here are directional signals, not the same kind of hard mechanical barrier you'd see in a name like AMD or SPY.

• 📉 Sentiment scar tissue from setrusumab. The late-2025 Orbit/Cosmic miss showed this stock can gap violently on a trial disappointment — investors who got burned once may sell first and ask questions later on any hint of bad news from DTX401 or UX111.

• 🌫️ GTX-102 is an undated wildcard inside the window. The Angelman Phase 3 "Aspire" topline is only guided to "2H 2026" — it could land before Oct 16 and add a third binary this trade has to survive, or it could land after and simply be a risk left on the table once the position closes.

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: someone was already short Ultragenyx through 6,000 September $22.5 puts. The stock rallied 18% against them, and their puts were set to expire one day before the FDA verdict they were built to capture. Rather than take the loss, they rolled up and out — closing the doomed puts for $1.97M and paying $4.95M for 6,000 October $30 puts that carry 65% more bearish delta and live through both PDUFAs. Net cash out the door: $2.98M, on top of whatever the original position cost them.

What this trade tells us:

• 🎯 A sophisticated player is treating August 23 (DTX401) and September 19 (UX111) as the two dates that matter most for RARE between now and mid-October — and they were willing to pay millions to make sure they were still positioned when those dates arrive
• 🔄 This is a conviction signal, not a hedge-maintenance signal. Rolling up in strike and out in time after an adverse move, at a net debit, with more delta than before, is what a trader does when they believe the thesis more than the tape does
• 💀 The one-day gap between Sep 18 and the Sep 19 UX111 verdict was a flaw, not a feature. Their old puts would have died the day before the event. Fixing that is arguably the single clearest reason this roll happened today
• 💰 The new strike ($30) lands directly on the chain's largest put-open-interest concentration, and the roll moved ≈6,000 contracts of open interest up onto it

If you're watching RARE into these events:

• 📅 Mark July 30 (Q2 earnings), August 23 (DTX401 PDUFA), and September 19 (UX111 PDUFA) on your calendar now
• ⚠️ Check your own expirations against the catalyst dates. The most transferable lesson in this entire trade is that a directional option expiring one day before its catalyst is worth nothing at all
• 🧭 Do not treat this as a simple "someone is bearish, sell your shares" signal. It is a real, sizeable, increased bearish position — but we cannot see whether it hedges long stock elsewhere, and a $4.95M put position is not a forecast

Mark your calendar — key dates:

• 📅 July 17, 2026 — Monthly OPEX (implied ±7.35% window)
• 📅 July 30, 2026 — Q2 2026 earnings
• 📅 August 23, 2026 — DTX401 (GSDIa) FDA PDUFA — the new October puts are alive for this
• 📅 September 18, 2026 — the closed $22.5 puts would have expired here (one day before UX111)
• 📅 September 19, 2026 — UX111 (Sanfilippo A) FDA PDUFA — the new October puts are alive for this too
• 📅 October 16, 2026 — the new long $30 puts expire

✅ Update (July 10, 2026): the OPRA open-interest snapshot resolved this trade — and inverted it. The $22.5 put's OI fell from 6,000 to 1,227 (−4,773), proving the "sold" leg was a close, not a fresh short. This is a bearish put roll (STC + BTO), not a diagonal spread. The article above has been rewritten throughout.

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Biotech binary events (FDA PDUFA decisions, Phase 3 readouts) can produce overnight moves of 20–50% or more in either direction — position sizing and risk management are essential. This article was substantially revised on July 10, 2026 after next-day open interest disproved the original structural read; the confirmed structure is a roll, and the capital at risk is the full $4.95M long-put premium. The trader behind this flow may have complex portfolio hedging needs (existing stock, calls, or other positions) not visible in the options tape and not applicable to retail traders. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading.

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About Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical: Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. develops and commercializes therapies for serious, ultra-rare and rare genetic diseases, anchored by commercial products Crysvita, Dojolvi, Mepsevii, and Evkeeza, with a pipeline weighted toward AAV gene therapies and biologic/antisense programs, and a market cap of ≈$3.5 billion in the Healthcare — Biotechnology industry.

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Last updated: July 10, 2026 — the next-day OPRA open-interest snapshot inverted this analysis. Sep 18 $22.5 put: OI 6,000 → 1,227 (−4,773) = CLOSE, relabeled STO → STC. Oct 16 $30 put: OI 1 → 6,001 (+6,000) = OPEN, confirmed BTO. Structure corrected from "bearish put diagonal" to bearish put roll (up and out); title, thesis, economics, risk profile, and reader guidance rewritten accordingly.