🛡️ SPCX $30M Put Block — Now Confirmed a CLOSE: A Desk UNWOUND an Existing SpaceX Position, Not a Fresh Hedge

📅 June 23, 2026 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

❗ INVERSION — Update (2026-06-24): Next-day OPRA OI on the $220 put FELL 4,632 → 2,516 (Δ −2,116), proving this was a net CLOSE, not a fresh open. The original "establishing a new married-put hedge" read is reversed: the desk was unwinding / reducing an existing options position, not putting on brand-new protection. The proven delta-hedged-package mechanics (option + QCT stock block, delta-matched) still hold — but the open/close direction has flipped. See the ✅ RESOLVED box below; framing throughout has been corrected.

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🎯 The Quick Take

Someone moved $30 MILLION through a deep in-the-money SpaceX put at 09:42 — and next-day OPRA OI has now confirmed (see the inversion note above) that this was a CLOSE: the desk was unwinding an existing $220-put position, not buying fresh insurance. The equity tape proves it was a delta-matched package — the same desk simultaneously printed a ≈389,670-share block of SPCX stock at the same moment — but with the option leg's open interest falling the next morning, the most defensible read is that a pre-existing paired structure was being taken off or rolled, not established. Translation: this is risk being removed/recycled, not a new bearish bet and not new protection. What the public tape can prove (a net options close) and what it cannot (the full prior structure, who held which side) are separated below.

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📊 Company Overview

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) — NASDAQ: SPCX — is the company that needs no introduction but deserves some context for options traders:

• What they do: Rockets (Falcon 9, Starship), Starlink satellite internet, and the recently absorbed xAI/Grok business — the rare company straddling aerospace, telecom, and AI all at once
• Sector: Aerospace / Space + Telecom
• IPO: Priced at $135 on June 12, 2026 — largest IPO in history, raising ≈$75B and debuting at a ≈$1.75 trillion valuation, more than triple Alibaba's record
• Revenue (2025): ≈$16B total; Starlink was $11.4B (61% of revenue, +48% YoY)
• Float: Only ≈4-5% of shares are publicly traded. The rest is locked — Musk's ≈6.4 billion shares are locked for 366 days with no early release clause
• Current Price: ≈$148.79 (trade-time spot, June 23, 2026 @ 09:42)
• Implied Volatility: ≈169% ATM — one of the most volatile large-cap stocks in options market history

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened — The Option Tape

🤝 BLOCK CROSS — This was a negotiated block cross: a broker matched a buyer and seller off the lit order book. A known counterparty took the other side; this is NOT an urgent sweep of the market. The print came in right at the mid of the bid-ask spread (51% across), which is another hallmark of a pre-arranged block — no one was "panicking" through the book.

📦 The Equity Tape — The Second Print That Changes Everything

The equity tape printed a ≈389,670-share block of SPCX common stock at $148.62 — just 30 seconds after the option cross. The stock block carries a Qualified Contingent Trade (QCT) marker, which the exchange uses specifically to label equity blocks that are pre-arranged as part of a larger paired structure with an options leg.

The delta math:

• 4,190 put contracts × 100 shares/contract × ≈0.93 delta (deep-ITM put at $220 with spot $148.79) = ≈389,670 shares needed to hedge
• Actual equity block: 389,670 shares
• Match: essentially exact — the delta-hedge is precise to within rounding

This is a PROVEN delta-neutral package (both tapes + math). Long deep-ITM puts + long ≈389,670 shares of stock = the two legs offset each other's directional risk.

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❗ OI RESOLVED (2026-06-24) — CLOSE CONFIRMED (this inverts the original read)

The size-≤-OI flag has resolved: next-day OPRA open interest at the $220 strike FELL from 4,632 to 2,516 (Δ −2,116). Falling OI = a net CLOSE. The option leg was reducing/unwinding an existing position, not establishing a fresh married put. The simultaneous 389,670-share QCT stock block + delta match are still proven — so this remains a delta-hedged package — but the package was being taken off / rolled, not put on.

What this proves vs. what it can't: PROVEN — the net options position came off (OI fell). NOT PROVABLE from the public tape — whether the desk was previously long or short these puts, the exact prior paired structure, or the counterparty/identity. The clean takeaway: this was a position being reduced/unwound, not new protection or a new directional bet.

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🤓 What This Actually Means — Plain English

Let's break down why this is one of the more interesting structures we've seen in SPCX since options launched on June 17.

The setup: SPCX peaked at $225.64 on June 16 — a 67% gain over the IPO price in just four days. Then it fell ≈31% to today's ≈$149. Someone sitting on a large long position through this ride is now looking at a stock that has given back a third of its gains, with Starship Flight 13 coming ≈July 31 and the first-ever earnings report ≈September 2 as binary catalysts ahead, plus a wave of lockup shares starting to unlock in late July.

That is a lot of uncertainty concentrated into a ≈4-5% float stock with 169% implied vol.

The structure:

• Buying deep-ITM puts struck at $220 (the $220 strike sits near the June 16 all-time high, ≈$71 in-the-money at trade time)
• At ≈169% IV, ATM puts are extraordinarily expensive — buying deep-ITM puts is the most efficient way to gain near-100% downside protection per dollar spent because the premium is almost entirely intrinsic value (≈$71 intrinsic on a ≈$72.62 option)
• Simultaneously printing a 389,670-share QCT stock block — confirmed by the equity tape

The package geometry: a deep-ITM $220 put delta-matched to a ≈389,670-share QCT stock block. In isolation that geometry looks like a married put — but the next-day OI fall (−2,116) proves the option leg was being closed/reduced, not freshly bought. So the better description is the unwinding (or rolling) of a pre-existing paired position, not the establishment of new protection.

❗ Corrected by next-day OI: an earlier version of this section read the structure as a fresh married-put hedge being put on. The OPRA OI snapshot the next morning showed open interest falling, which can only happen if the position is net-closing. The deep-ITM-put + stock-block geometry is still proven; the open/close direction is now CLOSE.

🎯 Likely Intent (INFERRED — not proven by the tape):

A large SpaceX holder — almost certainly an institution, fund, or early investor — was taking off or rolling an existing $220-put-linked position rather than initiating new protection. Plausible motives for an unwind at this moment:

1. Removing/recycling a hedge ahead of the late-July lockup window after the stock already gave back ≈31% from the peak
2. Rolling the structure to a different strike or expiry as the catalyst calendar (Starship Flight 13, first earnings) firmed up
3. Closing a financing/reversal package whose carry trade had run its course

What the tape CANNOT tell us:

• Who the counterparty is or which side of the trade they're on
• Whether the desk was previously long or short these puts, or the full prior paired structure
• The exact motivation (hedge removal vs. roll vs. financing/conversion unwind)
• (Open vs. close is now RESOLVED above: net CLOSE, OI −2,116)

Confidence grades:

• PROVEN: Both tapes confirm the simultaneous option cross + QCT equity block + delta match (≈0.93)
• INFERRED: The protective/financing intent based on structure, strike placement (near all-time high), and the upcoming catalyst calendar
• UNKNOWABLE: Counterparty identity, exact stock position direction, broker/MMID, investor's internal mandate

The bottom line in one sentence: This is a desk protecting a large SPCX position, not a fresh bearish bet on where the stock goes from here.

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance

SPCX has one of the shortest price histories of any $1T+ stock — options have only been trading since June 17, and the stock itself has only been public since June 12. What we do have tells a dramatic story:

• 📈 IPO → ATH: $135 IPO price → $225.64 peak on June 16 (+67% in 4 trading days)
• 📉 ATH → Today: $225.64 → ≈$149 (≈−34% from peak, ≈+10% from offer)
• ⚠️ Important context: With only ≈11 trading days of price history, every technical level is being written in real time. There is no multi-year support/resistance map to lean on — only the IPO price ($135), the all-time high ($225.64), and the gamma structure below.

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

The gamma exposure map is especially important for SPCX because it represents the first real institutional price anchoring in this name. Market makers hedging their books will defend these levels mechanically.

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Current Price):

• $155 — Strong support (5.4 total GEX) — the nearest floor; dealers are long a lot of puts here and will need to buy shares on the way down to stay hedged. First line of defense.
• $150 — Very Strong support (11.5 total GEX, the heaviest support wall on the board) — this is the gamma support LINE IN THE SAND. Massive put open interest here means market makers will aggressively bid near $150. Worth noting: this is also very close to the current spot price at $148.79 — the stock is essentially sitting right at the gamma support zone.

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Current Price):

• $160 — Strong resistance (6.4 total GEX) — just ≈7.5% above current price; the first ceiling to overcome for any sustained bounce
• $165 — Strong resistance (7.6 total GEX) — secondary cap ≈11% above spot
• $170 — Strong resistance (9.1 total GEX) — a bigger wall ≈14% above spot; this is where call sellers have piled in
• $180 — Largest Resistance Wall on the board (11.4 total GEX) — this is the dominant resistance ceiling. If SPCX somehow fights back to $180, expect dealers to systematically sell into the rally.
• $200 and $220 — Extended resistance walls reflecting where bullish call buyers set their targets from the IPO frenzy

What this means right now: SPCX is in a compression zone — sitting right on top of the heaviest put-gamma support ($150 Very Strong) while facing a stack of resistance walls starting at $160. The gamma structure is actually somewhat stabilizing for a name this volatile: options market makers have a strong incentive to buy stock near $150 (put hedging) and sell near $160-180 (call hedging). That mechanic should limit extreme moves in the very short term.

⚠️ Caveat: This gamma map is brand-new. With options only launched June 17, these levels reflect 6 trading days of open interest accumulation, not years of positioning. Treat it as a useful but early-stage picture.

Implied Move Analysis

With ≈169% ATM implied vol, SPCX's options are pricing in historically extreme moves. Here is what the market is baking in across each expiry:

Translation: The market thinks SPCX can swing ±$15 in the next 3 days (that's ±10% on a ≈$1.75T market cap company), and ±$35 by the July 17 expiry of today's trade. For context: a ±$35 swing on SPCX moves ≈$470B of market value. This is a market-structure anomaly created by the tiny float, not a permanent feature of the stock.

Key implication for this trade: The $220 put expires July 17. The implied move lower bound by then is ≈$123 — well below the $220 strike. The put provides protection across the entire realistic downside range the market is pricing, which is the point of buying deep-ITM protection.

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🎪 Catalysts

✅ Already Happened (Explaining the −31% Selloff)

• June 12 — IPO Debut (CNBC): Priced at $135, opened at $150, closed at $160.95 (+19.2%). Largest IPO in history.
• June 16 — All-Time High $225.64: Stock ran 67% from offer in four sessions on retail euphoria and no-float squeeze dynamics.
• June 16 — $60B Cursor Acquisition (CNBC, TechCrunch): SpaceX announced an all-stock deal for Anysphere (the AI coding startup behind Cursor), the largest VC-backed-startup acquisition ever. Immediate dilution concern hammered the stock.
• ≈June 19 — $20B Bond Offering (Bloomberg, TechTimes): First investment-grade dollar bond to refinance bridge loans from the xAI acquisition. A company that just raised $75B + announced $60B in all-stock deals + plans $20B of debt in the same week spooked investors.
• June 17 — Options Launch (Seeking Alpha): Options began trading with 1.72M contracts on day one — a record. IV opened ≈169% ATM. This gave short-sellers a practical hedging tool for the first time.
• June 22 — MSCI ESG Downgrade (TipRanks): MSCI assigned SpaceX its lowest possible ESG rating, which can gate certain institutional buyers and fund mandates.

🔥 Upcoming Catalysts (The Ones Driving Today's Hedge)

• ≈July 31, 2026 — Starship Flight 13 (Space Launch Schedule): Scheduled from Orbital Pad 2 at Starbase, TX. Binary event: a success strengthens the Starship commercialization thesis; a significant failure creates a negative news cycle directly into the lockup window.

• ≈Late July / Early August 2026 — First Lockup Unlock (Stock Alarm, BingX): The first 20% early-release unlocks on the 2nd full trading day after Q2 earnings report. A bonus 10% unlocks if the stock held ≥30% above the $135 offer price for 5 of 10 days pre-earnings (which it no longer clearly has, with spot ≈$149). This is the dominant supply overhang.

• August–October 2026 — Rolling 7% Tranches (Stock Alarm): At 70 / 90 / 105 / 120 / 135 calendar days post-June 12, additional 7% tranches unlock. Supply pressure is building systematically.

• ≈September 2, 2026 — First-Ever Earnings (Q2 2026) (Yahoo Finance): SpaceX's debut as a public company reporting. This lifts the underwriter quiet period and triggers a wave of fresh analyst initiations. It also sets the valuation anchor: wall street will finally be forced to put a multiple on ≈$16B in revenue at a ≈109x price-to-sales company. Wide analyst range ($62–$310) means this event is genuinely binary for the stock.

• December 8, 2026 — Full 180-Day Lockup Expiration (Darrow Wealth, BingX): All remaining 180-day shares become freely tradeable. The largest single supply event in the lockup calendar.

• Q3 2026 — Cursor Deal Close (CNBC): The $60B all-stock acquisition of Anysphere expected to close Q3; actual dilution crystalizes for shareholders.

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels and the implied move data together with the catalyst calendar:

📈 Bull Case (20% probability)

Target: $175–$193

How we get there:

• 🚀 Starship Flight 13 success on ≈July 31 re-ignites the SpaceX-as-infrastructure narrative
• 📊 Q2 2026 earnings (≈Sept 2) show Starlink accelerating toward $20B run-rate, validating the premium multiple
• 🤖 Underwriter initiations (≈40 days post-IPO = early July) set fresh $200–$310 price targets
• 📈 $160 gamma resistance cracks, $165 falls, stock targets the $170–$175 Strong resistance zone
• ⚖️ The bonus 10% lockup block (requiring 5/10 days at $175.50, i.e., 30% above $135) fails to trigger, limiting supply
• 🎯 Key gamma resistance levels to watch: $160 (first test), $165 (second test), $175 (upper bull target)

🎯 Base Case (50% probability)

Target: $143–$165 (volatile range-bound)

Most likely scenario:

• 🔄 SPCX churns in the $143–$165 implied-move cone through July 17 expiry
• 📊 Gamma compression between the $150 Very Strong support and $160–$165 resistance keeps the stock pinned
• ⚠️ Lockup uncertainty and high IV premium deter fresh institutional buyers; ESG downgrade limits passive inclusion
• 🎢 Volatility stays extreme (169% IV doesn't evaporate overnight) but price grinds sideways
• ✅ The $30M hedge expires partially profitable (puts hold value with little IV decay since already deep-ITM) or the position is rolled further out

📉 Bear Case (30% probability)

Target: below $143 (testing the implied-move lower bound)

What could go wrong:

• 🚨 Starship Flight 13 failure or delay into lockup window = double negative headline
• 📉 First earnings shock — ≈109x sales multiple faces severe compression if revenue falls short or xAI cash burn is larger than expected (BitMEX)
• 💸 $60B Cursor dilution spooks pre-IPO holders who choose to sell at the first unlock
• 🔻 Break below $150 Very Strong gamma support triggers mechanical sell pressure as dealers de-hedge
• 📊 Implied move lower bound by July 17 is $123.48 — that is the market's statistical floor, and it is not that far from today

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative — The Slow Lane (Beginner-Friendly)

Play: Wait on the sidelines until after Starship Flight 13 (≈July 31) and watch the OI confirmation tomorrow morning (≈06:30 ET).

Why this works:

• ⏰ With binary events stacked — Starship launch + first lockup unlock + earnings — directional positioning in a 169% IV name is expensive and dangerous
• 🎯 The gamma model shows very strong support at $150 (the level the stock is sitting on) — a confirmed hold of $150 after tomorrow's open would be the first technical confirmation
• 📊 Options are extraordinarily expensive right now (169% ATM IV); waiting for a post-event IV crush reduces the cost of any position you want to enter
• ✅ Minimum useful action: watch the OI report tomorrow at ≈06:30 ET to confirm whether today's trade was an open or a close — it matters for context

Skill level: Entry-level | Risk: Minimal (cash)

⚖️ Balanced — The Swing Trader's Play (Intermediate)

Play: If SPCX holds the $150 gamma support floor through this week (June 26 OPEX), consider a defined-risk bull call spread targeting the $160–$165 resistance zone.

Why it might work:

• 📊 $150 Very Strong gamma support creates a natural bounce zone — if the support holds, market maker covering creates mechanical buying
• 🎯 Buy August $155 call / sell August $165 call — captures a move from support to first resistance wall with defined risk
• 💰 The deep ITM put structure today doesn't tell us the holder is bearish — it tells us they're hedged. The stock could still bounce from here.
• ⚠️ The Starship Flight 13 success on ≈July 31 is a potential catalyst to carry the stock through $160 resistance
• 🛡️ Defined risk means you know your max loss on day one

Key risk: IV is extreme — always check that you're not paying 80%+ of the spread's width in premium before entering. If it feels expensive, it is.

Skill level: Intermediate | Risk: Defined (max loss = premium paid)

🚀 Aggressive — The YOLO with Context (Advanced)

Play: Sell a SPCX cash-secured put at the $135 IPO price strike (the structural floor with enormous psychological significance) for the September or October expiry — and collect the extreme premium.

Why it might work:

• 💰 With 169% IV, put premium near the $135 IPO price strike is extraordinary — you're collecting premium for a scenario most people consider a true disaster (stock back to IPO price from a $1.75T company)
• 🎯 The $135 level is the IPO floor — institutional underwriters and pre-IPO holders have an implied interest in not seeing the stock trade below that level
• 📊 Gamma data shows no meaningful put support around $135, but the psychological floor is real
• 🎢 If assigned, you own SPCX at the IPO price — which many investors would consider an acceptable entry

Critical warnings:

• ❗ This requires owning 100 shares × (number of contracts) as cash collateral — sized accordingly
• ❗ The $60B dilution + $20B debt + lockup schedule means SPCX COULD trade below $135
• ❗ Never sell naked puts on a 169% IV name without deep understanding of tail risk
• ❗ SPCX is a brand-new public company with 11 trading days of history — there is no "support" the way there is for a 10-year-old stock

Skill level: Advanced | Risk: High (potential $13,500 per contract if stock goes to zero — use only with full cash collateral)

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⚠️ Risk Factors

The honest risks you need to know:

• 🔒 Lockup supply overhang is the biggest structural bear case. Only ≈4-5% of shares trade publicly today. Starting late July, tranches start unlocking. By December 8, the full 180-day lock expires. Each wave of new supply hits a thin float — potentially violent. (BingX)

• 💸 Valuation is genuinely extreme. ≈109x price-to-sales on a company with ≈−45% operating margin, a $41.3B accumulated deficit, and a ≈$4.28B Q1 2026 net loss. Even the bull case requires believing Starlink becomes the dominant global ISP and Starship disrupts launch economics. Possible — but not certain.

• 🚀 Starship Flight 13 is genuinely binary. A successful launch ≈July 31 is a major catalyst. A failure or anomaly creates a multi-week negative news cycle. SpaceX has had anomalies on every major Starship milestone. (Space Launch Schedule)

• 🤖 $60B Cursor deal dilutes IPO buyers immediately. The all-stock structure for Anysphere was the first major event that triggered the selloff. The deal is expected to close Q3 2026, crystallizing dilution for everyone who bought the IPO. (TechCrunch)

• 📉 No price history means no real technical support. 11 days of trading data cannot build the multi-year support/resistance maps that traders rely on for entry/exit precision. The gamma structure provides some anchoring, but it is only 6 days old.

• 🌍 MSCI lowest ESG rating can block large passive allocations. ESG mandates at pension funds and institutional accounts may structurally limit SPCX's buyer base until the rating improves. (TipRanks)

• 🎢 169% implied volatility cuts both ways. If you are buying options in SPCX, you are paying historically extreme premium. A single position sizing mistake in a 169% IV name can be catastrophic for a retail-sized account. The $72.62 option price you see on today's put is intrinsic-heavy because the strike is so far in-the-money — buying OTM or ATM options in SPCX is a very different (and more dangerous) proposition.

• 🔑 Key-man risk. Concentrated Musk attention and control across SpaceX, xAI, Tesla, and other ventures means any distraction or controversy involving Musk is a single-point risk for SPCX.

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Here's the deal (corrected by next-day OI): The $30M trade was NOT someone betting SpaceX crashes — and, as the next-morning OPRA OI now proves, it was also NOT a fresh married-put hedge being put on. Open interest at the $220 strike fell 2,116 contracts, so the option leg was net closing. The cleanest read: a large holder was unwinding or rolling an existing $220-put-linked package — taking risk off, or recycling it — rather than establishing new protection. The equity tape still proves the package mechanics (a delta-matched ≈389,670-share QCT block printed 30 seconds later); what changed is the open/close direction.

What this trade tells us:

• 🔄 A large player with real SPCX exposure was reducing/closing a position, not initiating one — the net options OI came off
• 🧮 The deep-ITM-put + stock-block geometry is genuine and delta-matched; in isolation it resembles a married put, but the falling OI means it was being taken off, not put on
• ⏰ The July 17 expiry that the closed leg targeted brackets the late-July lockup window and Flight 13 — consistent with a hedge that is no longer needed in its current form (or is being rolled)
• ⚖️ Honest limit: the public tape proves the close, but cannot tell us whether the desk was long or short these puts beforehand, so we do not assign a directional "view" to the unwind

If you own SPCX:

• ✅ The gamma support at $150 (Very Strong) is your floor to watch — if the stock holds it, the immediate pressure may be stabilizing
• ⏰ Mark your calendar for ≈July 31 (Starship Flight 13) and ≈September 2 (first earnings) — those are the two events that will set the medium-term direction
• 🔄 Don't read this $30M print as a big holder newly adding protection — next-day OI shows a position coming off, which is a different (and more neutral) signal

If you're watching from the sidelines:

• ✅ Open/close is now resolved: this was a CLOSE (OI −2,116), i.e. an unwind, not a fresh open
• 🎯 The $150 gamma support is the line: hold it, and the stock has a path to $160–$165. Break below it, and the implied move lower bound ($123) comes into play
• ⏰ With 169% IV, be very thoughtful about what you are paying for options in this name. Every day, every dollar of extrinsic is decaying fast

Mark your calendar — Key dates:

• 📅 June 24, 2026 ≈06:30 ET — ✅ DONE: OPRA OI resolved the $220 put as a CLOSE (OI 4,632 → 2,516, Δ −2,116)
• 📅 June 26, 2026 — Weekly OPEX (±9.5% implied move window, $143–$173 range)
• 📅 July 17, 2026 — Monthly OPEX; expiration of today's $30M hedge; first post-IPO options settlement cycle
• 📅 ≈July 31, 2026 — Starship Flight 13 — binary sentiment catalyst
• 📅 ≈Late July / Early August — First lockup 20% early-release window opens (2nd trading day after Q2 earnings)
• 📅 ≈September 2, 2026 — SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings — first ever
• 📅 December 8, 2026 — Full 180-day lockup expiration — largest single supply event in the lockup calendar

This is still a 11-day-old public company with a ≈109x sales multiple, a 4-5% float, and 169% implied vol. The big money today did not sell — but, per next-day OI, they did not add fresh protection either: a delta-hedged options position was being unwound/rolled. That's a nuanced, neutral signal. Trade it carefully. 🚀

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Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The trade described involves a complex paired option-equity structure; retail traders should not attempt to replicate institutional hedging strategies without understanding the full mechanics. SPCX is a brand-new public company with limited price history — all technical levels and probabilities are preliminary. The open/close status of this trade has now been ✅ resolved by next-day OPRA OI: it was a CLOSE (an unwind), not a fresh open. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before trading.

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Last updated: June 24, 2026 — morning OI check INVERTED this trade from provisional to a confirmed CLOSE ($220 put OI 4,632 → 2,516, Δ −2,116). Title, lead, structure, and bottom-line corrected from "fresh married-put hedge" to "unwinding an existing position."

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About SpaceX (SPCX): Space Exploration Technologies Corp. designs and manufactures rockets, spacecraft, and satellite systems, and operates the Starlink broadband satellite internet network. The company completed the largest IPO in history on June 12, 2026, raising ≈$75B at a ≈$1.75 trillion valuation. Sector: Aerospace / Space + Telecom. NASDAQ: SPCX.