🐋 UBER $8.8M Net-Credit Bullish Stack — LEAP Calls + Bull Put Spread on a Robotaxi-Fear Recovery

📅 June 26, 2026 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

✅ Updated June 29, 2026 (morning OI check): Next-day OPRA OI ROSE on all legs, confirming opening trades (no inversion). See the ✅ RESOLVED box.

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🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just constructed a stacked bullish position on UBER worth ≈$8.8M in gross premium — buying ≈6,000 LEAP calls expiring June 2027 for ≈$3.6M AND simultaneously running a bull put spread that collects ≈$5.2M in credit, leaving the whole structure with a net ≈$1.6M credit in their pocket while still being long the upside. This is not your neighbor Bob placing a directional bet — this is an institution engineering a defined-risk, recovery-thesis position that says: "UBER is 30% off its peak on robotaxi fears, and those fears are overblown." With Q2 earnings due August 4, 2026, the clock is ticking. 👀

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📊 Company Overview

Uber Technologies (UBER) is the world's largest ride-hailing and on-demand delivery platform, operating across four segments:

• Mobility (ride-hailing): core business, ≈$53.7B gross bookings in Q1 2026 — and the segment most under scrutiny for robotaxi competition
• Delivery (Uber Eats): second-largest gross-bookings engine; European delivery expansion is a key 2026 growth lever
• Advertising: crossed a $2B+ annualized run-rate in Q4 2025 (up >50% YoY) — high-margin, asset-light, and largely ignored by the bear camp
• Freight: $1.34B Q1 2026 revenue, +6% YoY; loss narrowing

Market Cap: ≈$148B | Sector: Technology / Transportation — software-platform marketplace | Current Price: ≈$76 (June 26, 2026) | 52-Week Range: $67.19–$101.99

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened — All 5 Prints

Two distinct structures executed across two time windows today:

⚡ Single-leg auction = a facilitated exchange price-improvement auction (not an aggressive lit sweep, not a block cross). 🔁 Multi-leg auction = a facilitated complex order pairing two legs simultaneously on the exchange. Neither structure touched the lit book like a panicked buyer slamming offers — both were broker-worked, orderly executions.

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📐 Structure A — LEAP Call Buy (≈$3.6M debit)

Three prints between 13:46:03 and 13:46:10, building ≈6,000 total contracts of the June 17, 2027 $80 Call at an average price of ≈$12.14/share — a ≈$3.6M outlay.

• Spot was ≈$76 at fill → the $80 strike is ≈5% out of the money
• Expiration is ≈356 days away — a textbook LEAP, capturing two earnings cycles (Aug 4, 2026 and early 2027) plus the full robotaxi deployment narrative into mid-2027
• The implied-move data puts the 1-year upper range at ≈$107, well above the $80 strike
• At ≈$80 they need UBER up ≈5% to be in the money at expiry; full profit at $92+ (breakeven ≈ $80 + $12.14 = $92.14)

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📐 Structure B — Bull Put Spread (≈$5.2M net credit)

Two prints at 10:45 AM executing simultaneously as a multi-leg auction:

• SELL 7,566 × Jan 15, 2027 $77.5 Put @ $9.70 → collect $7.3M
• BUY 7,566 × Jan 15, 2027 $60 Put @ $2.80 → pay $2.1M
• Net credit: ≈$5.2M ($6.90/contract × 7,566 × 100)
• Max profit (entire credit kept): UBER stays above $77.50 at January 2027 expiry
• Max loss: ($77.5 − $60 − $6.90) × 7,566 × 100 = ≈$7.9M (if UBER collapses below $60)
• Breakeven: $77.50 − $6.90 = $70.60 — UBER can drop ≈7% from today's spot and this spread STILL makes money

Translation: this is a defined-risk bet that UBER stays above $70.60 by January 2027. The $60 long put is the safety net that caps the loss if UBER truly craters.

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💵 The Stacked Math

The trader is net receiving ≈$1.6M while holding bullish upside exposure on 6,000 LEAP calls. That is a deliberately engineered "getting paid to wait for recovery" structure.

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✅ Open/Close Status — RESOLVED

✅ RESOLVED — Next-Day OPRA OI Confirms OPENING Trades on All Legs

The June 29 pre-market OPRA snapshot (reflecting June 26 end-of-day) is in. Open interest ROSE on every leg — confirming the full stacked structure as fresh opening trades, not a roll or close. The two bull-put-spread legs were ambiguous from the tape alone (size ≤ prior OI), but next-day OI settled it: both legs added ≈7,400 of fresh open interest.

Leg	Baseline OI (pre-print)	Resolving OI (next-day)	Δ	Trade Size	Verdict
$80 Call, exp 2027-06-17 (BUY)	890	3,924	+3,034	998	✅ OPEN (BTO)
$77.5 Put, exp 2027-01-15 (SELL)	11,043	18,439	+7,396	7,566	✅ OPEN (STO)
$60 Put, exp 2027-01-15 (BUY)	14,319	21,526	+7,207	7,566	✅ OPEN (BTO)

Every leg's OI rose by ≈ the print size (the LEAP calls rose even more than the print — other buyers piled in too), confirming all three as fresh opening trades: the LEAP calls are BTO long, the $77.5 put is STO short, and the $60 put is BTO long protection. The net-credit bullish-stack read below holds — no inversion, no roll.

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🤓 What This Actually Means — Plain English

Let me break this down for you. 👀

At its core, this is a stacked bullish recovery bet on UBER. Here's the logic in plain English:

The LEAP Call Buy is the simplest piece: someone paid ≈$12.14 per share for the right to buy UBER at $80 anytime up to June 2027. They need UBER to recover from ≈$76 to above $92.14 to profit. That's a ≈21% recovery from today's level — and Wall Street's consensus price target is ≈$107, implying ≈48% upside. The LEAP structure gives them a whole year to be right, capturing two earnings prints plus any AV partnership headline pop.

The Bull Put Spread is where it gets clever. By simultaneously selling the $77.5 put and buying the $60 put (both expiring January 2027), they're saying: "I'll take the other side of the fear trade. I'll sell you the right to put UBER stock to me at $77.5 — but I'll also buy protection below $60 so my maximum risk is capped." The $5.2M net credit from the spread offsets the $3.6M cost of the calls, leaving the overall structure at a net ≈$1.6M credit. Translation: they get paid to be bullish.

What's the thesis? The catalyst section says it all. UBER's operating fundamentals are genuinely strong — Q1 2026 gross bookings surged 25% to $53.7B and adjusted EBITDA jumped 33% to $2.5B. But the stock is ≈30% off its October 2025 peak because investors are terrified that Waymo and Tesla's Cybercab will eat Uber's lunch. This trader appears to believe that fear is overpriced — Uber is not a victim of autonomy, it's positioning itself as the demand-aggregation marketplace that AV operators plug into. The NVIDIA partnership deploying L4 robotaxis across 28 cities by 2028 reinforces that thesis.

The honest catch: The short $77.5 put in the spread carries real downside if the robotaxi fear is right and UBER continues to fall. If UBER drops below $70.60, the spread starts losing money; below $60, you hit maximum loss (≈$7.9M on that leg alone). Next-day OPRA OI has now confirmed all three legs opened fresh (OI rose +7,396 on the $77.5 put and +7,207 on the $60 put) — so this is genuinely fresh bullish risk being added, not an existing position being rolled.

What the tape CANNOT tell us: We don't know the identity of the institution, whether they have underlying UBER stock as an additional hedge, or their exact entry thesis. We're reading the options-only footprint.

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance

UBER has been on a brutal round-trip. The stock hit an all-time closing high of $100.10 back in October 2025, then got crushed as Tesla's Cybercab production ramp and Waymo expansion stoked fear about rideshare cannibalization. Today's ≈$76 level puts the stock down ≈24% from that peak — and down ≈10% year-to-date 2026. The good news: the 52-week low of $67.19 appears to be holding as a floor, and the stock has recovered ≈13% off those lows. The bad news: every rally attempt has been capped quickly. The August 4 earnings print is the next binary test.

Key observations:

• 📉 Drawdown context: ≈30% off the October 2025 peak — the fear discount is real and substantial
• 🔄 Bottoming signals: bouncing off $67 support twice; higher lows forming
• 📊 Volume pattern: today's institutional multi-leg flow is the most notable options footprint in weeks
• 🎯 Recovery math: consensus target ≈$107 implies the market's bottomed pessimism still leaves nearly $30 on the table

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Gamma-Based Support & Resistance

The gamma exposure map shows UBER is sandwiched between very heavy gamma walls in a tight range:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):

• $75.00 — "Very Strong" gamma support (24.7 total GEX); ≈1.3% below spot. The largest single support cluster on the board. Market makers will be compelled to buy dips aggressively at this level to rebalance their delta hedges
• $70.00 — "Strong" secondary floor (9.0 total GEX); ≈7.9% below spot. This is the defense line if $75 cracks — and notably, it's also comfortably above the bull put spread's $70.60 breakeven

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):

• $76.00 — "Very Strong" ceiling (17.1 total GEX); a fraction of a percent above current spot. UBER is literally sitting on top of its first major resistance right now — the $76 wall acts like a lid, creating mechanical selling pressure from dealers hedging call exposure every time the stock ticks up
• $77.50 — secondary resistance (6.5 total GEX); ≈2% up — notably, this is exactly where the short put is struck. If UBER can clear $77.50, the put expires worthless and the spread collects full credit
• $80.00 — resistance wall (14.6 total GEX); ≈5.3% above spot — this is the LEAP call strike. Clearing $80 is the LEAP call's first meaningful milestone

What this means for traders: UBER is currently sitting in a pinch between the $75 support (very strong gamma floor) and the $76 resistance (very strong gamma ceiling). Short-term price action is likely to be choppy inside this band until a catalyst forces a break. The August 4 earnings event is exactly the kind of binary print that could break UBER out of this range decisively in either direction.

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Implied Move Analysis

Options markets are pricing in meaningful uncertainty at every horizon:

Translation for regular folks: The market prices in a ±$3.43 swing over the next 6 days — basically sideways near-term. But out to the January 2027 put spread expiry (≈6 months), the quarterly cone is already showing a lower range of ≈$61 — which is almost exactly where the $60 long put is struck. That is not a coincidence. This trader structured their safety net right at the edge of what the market considers a plausible disaster scenario.

The 1-year upper range of ≈$107.62 aligns almost perfectly with the ≈$107 analyst consensus target — and sits well above the $80 LEAP call strike. If UBER simply recovers to what Wall Street already thinks it's worth, these calls are deeply in the money.

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🎪 Catalysts

🔥 Upcoming Catalysts (What Matters Most)

Q2 2026 Earnings — August 4, 2026 📊

This is the near-term binary event the entire position is positioning around. Wall Street expects revenue of ≈$14.2B (+15% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $2.70B–$2.80B, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.78–$0.82. UBER itself guided GB of $56.25B–$57.75B. Key watch-items on the call: ads run-rate trajectory (can it stay above $2B?), mobility trip-growth durability vs AV headlines, robotaxi city count update, and buyback pace.

AV Partnership Momentum — Ongoing

The Nvidia partnership announced at GTC 2026 (March 17) commits Nvidia-software L4 robotaxis to launch in LA/SF in H1 2027 and scale to 28 cities by 2028. The Lucid + Nuro "Uber-exclusive" robotaxi is set for Bay Area late 2026. Uber is targeting robotaxi service live in ≥10 cities by end-2026 — each city launch is a potential headline catalyst.

2026 FIFA World Cup — Summer 2026

Guggenheim specifically cited the World Cup (hosted across US/Canada/Mexico) as a mobility and delivery demand tailwind. This is a near-term, real-world demand driver that doesn't require any AV narrative.

$20B Buyback — Ongoing

The $20B repurchase authorization backed by ≈$10B FY2025 FCF is a continuous price floor mechanism. Management committed "at least half of cash flow" to buybacks — at ≈$76 that's meaningful per-share reduction each quarter.

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📰 Recent Catalysts (Already Happened)

Q1 2026 Earnings — May 6, 2026 (Strong beat)

UBER reported gross bookings of $53.7B (+25% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $2.5B (+33%), and trips of 3.6B (+20%). Revenue came in at $13.2B (+14%). The GAAP net income of $263M was temporarily depressed by a $1.5B non-cash mark on equity investments — the operating engine is strong.

Analyst Upgrades — June 2026

Tigress Financial raised their target to $115 citing Europe delivery expansion. Guggenheim reiterated Buy at $125 citing World Cup demand and AV launches. The Buy consensus of ≈$107 average target implies ≈48% upside from current levels.

The Lone Bear — Melius Research, January 2026

Melius downgraded UBER to Sell with a $73 target specifically on Waymo/Tesla AV competition fears. This is the bear thesis in its clearest form — and notably, UBER is trading above that bear target today, suggesting the market has partially digested it.

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

📈 Bull Case (UBER recovers to analyst consensus)

Target: $90–$107 by June 2027

• ✅ Q2 earnings on August 4 confirm GB growth continuation; EBITDA above $2.75B
• ✅ Advertising run-rate climbs above $2.5B; becomes a distinct margin story
• ✅ Robotaxi city count reaches 10+ by end-2026; Uber becomes the AV demand layer not the victim
• ✅ World Cup demand provides a Q2/Q3 beat catalyst
• ✅ $20B buyback reduces float meaningfully
• 🚀 At $92+, the LEAP call position starts paying off; at $107, the LEAP calls are worth ≈$27/share (vs $12 cost) = ≈120% return on the call leg alone
• Gamma levels at $80, $85, $90 all become targets for systematic dealer hedging pressure on the way up

🎯 Base Case (Sideways consolidation, spread profits)

Target: $70–$85 by January 2027 (spread expiry)

• 🔄 UBER bounces around the $70–$85 range as the AV narrative stays binary
• 📊 Bull put spread collects full $5.2M credit as long as UBER stays above $77.50 at January expiry
• 🎢 LEAP calls retain meaningful time value even without a full recovery — holder can roll or sell partial position
• The $75 gamma support and $76 resistance create a "pinball" near-term range that only breaks on earnings
• Breakeven on the overall structure: already positive (net ≈$1.6M credit received upfront)

📉 Bear Case (AV fears accelerate, UBER falls)

Target: $60–$70 danger zone

• ❗ Tesla Cybercab pricing undercuts UBER in shared cities; mobility take-rate compresses
• ❗ Q2 earnings miss or weak guide disappoints — already priced-in growth fails to show up
• ❗ UBER falls toward $70 → approaches the $70.60 bull put spread breakeven
• ❗ Below $70, the spread begins losing money; below $60, max loss (≈$7.9M on the spread)
• Even in this scenario, the $60 long put caps the spread loss — and the $20B buyback provides a fundamental floor bid
• The gamma support at $70 (Strong wall) is the critical defense — if that cracks, the lower implied-move bound of ≈$69 (January 2027 range) is the next reference

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative — The "Wait for Clarity" Play

Investor type: Entry-level / Beginner

Play: Don't chase this trade yet. Wait for August 4 earnings to clear first.

Why this works: Options are pricing in meaningful uncertainty (±8.7% through July OPEX, which captures the earnings window). Entering now means paying up for volatility right before a binary event. Post-earnings, if UBER beats and gaps up, you can enter at a higher price but with dramatically reduced implied volatility — your options will actually be cheaper in dollar terms even at a higher stock price.

Action plan:

• 👀 Watch August 4 closely for GB guidance ($56B+ floor), EBITDA beat, and any AV city-count upgrade
• 📊 If UBER holds $75 gamma support post-earnings, the bull case is alive
• 🛡️ Consider buying shares of UBER on any post-earnings dip to $70–$72 (the gamma support zone), rather than options — less binary risk
• ⏰ Revisit LEAP calls in September once earnings dust settles and implied vol compresses

Risk: Opportunity cost if UBER rips on earnings before you enter. But sleeping well matters.

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⚖️ Balanced — Copy the Structure (Scaled Down)

Investor type: Swing trader

Play: Mirror the bull put spread at a smaller scale — sell the January 2027 $75 Put, buy the January 2027 $60 Put as a spread.

Why this works:

• You collect a net credit (premium seller), which means you get paid even if UBER is flat
• The $60 long put is your safety net — defined maximum loss
• Breakeven is around $68–$70 (depending on exact fills), giving you ≈8–10% downside buffer from today
• If UBER recovers to $80+ by January, you keep 100% of the credit collected

Important: The short $75 put means UBER can drop modestly (from $76 to $75) and you STILL profit. This is a "recovery not required" structure — you just need UBER to avoid a collapse.

Rough sizing for a $10,000 account: 1–2 spread contracts, risking $1,500–$3,000 maximum. Never risk more than you can afford to walk away from.

Risk level: Moderate (defined loss, bullish bias) | Best entered after August 4 earnings clarity

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🚀 Aggressive — The LEAP Call Play (YOLO with Runway)

Investor type: YOLO trader / growth-focused

Play: Buy the June 17, 2027 $80 Call — the exact LEAP structure the whale just traded.

Why this could work:

• ≈356 days of time value gives you two full earnings cycles to be right
• The $80 strike is only ≈5% OTM — not a lottery ticket, a realistic recovery target
• If UBER hits the ≈$107 analyst consensus by June 2027, these calls are worth ≈$27 vs ≈$12 cost = ≈125% return
• The 1-year implied-move upper range is ≈$107.62 — the market itself is pricing this as attainable

Why it could blow up:

• 💸 ≈$12/share means spending ≈$1,200 per contract
• 🤖 If the AV disruption story is real and UBER crumbles, the calls go to zero — you lose the entire premium
• ⏰ Even with a year of runway, theta is a slow drain — every week costs you time value
• 📉 A bad August 4 print could gut the calls 30–40% in a single session

Position sizing discipline: Never put more than 3–5% of your trading capital into any single LEAP speculative call. These are defined-risk bets, but the risk is the entire premium.

Breakeven: UBER at $92.14 by June 17, 2027 | Max loss: 100% of premium paid

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⚠️ Risk Factors

The honest picture — what could go wrong:

• 🤖 Tesla Cybercab scaling is the #1 risk. Tesla began volume Cybercab production at Giga Texas in April 2026 and is live in Austin, Dallas, Houston with expansion to Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Vegas. If Tesla undercuts UBER on price in shared cities, the mobility take-rate and margin story could compress faster than ads/delivery can offset. Melius Research's $73 Sell target specifically prices this outcome.

• 📱 Disintermediation risk. Waymo and Tesla could route demand through their own apps, cutting UBER out of its own marketplace over time. Uber's counter-positioning as the "AV demand aggregation layer" is a thesis, not a proven outcome yet.

• 💸 Short put carries real assignment risk. With the bull put spread now confirmed opening (next-day OI rose +7,396 on the $77.5 put), selling the $77.5 put means the trader could be assigned 756,600 shares of UBER at $77.5 if the stock craters below that level at expiry. At current prices that's a ≈$58.6M notional exposure. Most sophisticated institutional traders would manage or close this before expiry, but it illustrates the genuine downside of the short put leg.

• 📊 Earnings binary event (August 4, 2026). A weak Q2 guide — even without a miss — could push UBER back toward $67–$70 support and put the put spread under pressure. The AV narrative amplifies any operating disappointment.

• 💰 Capital intensity. Uber has committed over $10B+ across AV partnerships and $100M in robotaxi charging hubs. That capex pressure erodes the asset-light model narrative and could weigh on FCF despite strong EBITDA.

• 🌍 Macro / consumer slowdown. Ride-hailing and delivery are discretionary. A consumer spending pullback pressures trip frequency and GB growth — the exact metrics UBER bulls are counting on to maintain 20%+ gross bookings growth.

• ✅ Spread legs confirmed opening. Next-day OPRA OI confirmed the bull put spread is a fresh opening position, not a roll or close — OI rose +7,396 on the $77.5 put and +7,207 on the $60 put. This is a fresh bullish bet, as the structure reads.

• 📋 What the tape cannot prove: We do not know whether this institution holds underlying UBER stock, has any additional hedges, or what their exact entry thesis or time horizon is. Options-only flow gives us a directional footprint, not a complete picture.

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just engineered a ≈$1.6M net-credit bullish position on UBER — collecting more premium from the bull put spread than they paid for the LEAP calls. That kind of structure says one thing loudly: this is not a panic buy. This is a deliberate, defined-risk bet on UBER's recovery from a ≈30% drawdown that the trader believes is driven by overpriced fear rather than genuine fundamental deterioration.

The operating story is legitimately strong — $53.7B gross bookings, 33% EBITDA growth, a $2B+ ads business that barely existed two years ago, and a $20B buyback funded by real free cash flow. The AV disruption fear is real, but Uber's 20+ AV partnerships suggest the company has bet on being the marketplace layer rather than one specific technology stack.

If you own UBER:

• ✅ The $75 gamma support is your near-term line in the sand — hold above it and the bull thesis is intact
• 📅 Mark August 4, 2026 as the most important date on your calendar — that's when the GB trajectory speaks louder than any AV headline
• 📊 If UBER prints $56B+ Q2 GB with strong EBITDA, the gap between ≈$76 and the ≈$107 consensus target starts to close

If you're watching from the sidelines:

• 👀 Wait for August 4. Entering into a known binary event at elevated implied vol is the hardest way to make money
• 🎯 If UBER holds $70–$75 post-earnings (the gamma support zone), the risk/reward improves significantly
• 🔑 The recovery thesis requires AV partnerships to progress, the ads business to keep compounding, and the buyback to tighten the float — all three are trackable by Q2

If you're bearish:

• 📉 The $70.60 bull put spread breakeven and the $70 gamma support are your targets
• 🛡️ Below $70 and the gamma floor is gone — but remember, a $20B buyback provides a fundamental bid that doesn't show up in the options tape
• ❗ Melius's $73 Sell target is the clearest expression of the bear case — and it's only ≈4% below current price

Mark your calendar — Key dates:

• 📅 June 29, 2026 (pre-market ≈06:30 ET) — ✅ OPRA OI confirmed all legs OPENED (OI rose +3,034 on the $80 call, +7,396 on the $77.5 put, +7,207 on the $60 put)
• 📅 August 4, 2026 — Q2 2026 earnings (the next binary catalyst)
• 📅 January 15, 2027 — Bull put spread expiry (≈7 months)
• 📅 June 17, 2027 — LEAP call expiry (≈1 year)
• 📅 H1 2027 — Nvidia L4 robotaxis launch in LA/SF on Uber's platform

Net premium on today's position: ≈+$1.6M (net credit to the trader). Gross premium transacted: ≈$8.8M ($3.6M LEAP calls debit + $5.2M spread net credit collected).

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Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The spread leg open/close status has been ✅ confirmed as opening by next-day OPRA OI (OI rose +7,396 on the $77.5 put and +7,207 on the $60 put on June 29, 2026). Past unusual options activity does not predict future returns. Selling put options involves the risk of being assigned stock at the strike price; bull put spreads cap but do not eliminate loss. Always consult a licensed financial advisor and understand the full risk of any options strategy before trading. Positions discussed represent institutional activity inferred from public options tape — we do not know the counterparty, their hedging profile, or their full portfolio context.

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About Uber Technologies: Uber Technologies operates as a technology platform connecting consumers with providers of ride-hailing, food delivery, freight logistics, and advertising services across 70+ countries. Market cap ≈$148B. SIC classification: Services — Computer Programming, Data Processing.

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Last updated: June 29, 2026 — morning OI check confirmed opening trades on all legs (OI rose as expected). No inversion.