Informed Accumulation · Case Study

KODK

2020-08-04BIG MOVE

SEC probe + a pulled $765M government loan.

Price, rebased to 100 at the signalChart shows raw price · −62% forward low

Before the signal After the signal Signal fired

Signal

big_move_prob 1.0

Alert tier

BIG MOVE

Spot at flag

$15

20-day outcome

20-day idiosyncratic −65% (after a +130% spike)

Flow signature

🐜 pure aggregation. This describes the shape of the order flow — how the accumulation was assembled — not its intent and not its likely outcome.

What happened

Flagged right as KODK spiked on the DFC loan; an SEC probe then froze the loan and the stock round-tripped its entire gain.

The catalyst: SEC probe + a pulled $765M government loan.

The outcome: 20-day idiosyncratic −65% (after a +130% spike) — a forward idiosyncratic move (beta-stripped vs SPY) over a mature 20-day window. The raw price shown on the chart reached −62%; the two differ because the outcome strips out the market’s beta.

The story behind it

On July 28, 2020, Kodak — a 130-year-old film company — stunned the market with a surprise $765M U.S. government loan (via the DFC) to pivot into pharmaceutical-ingredient manufacturing. The stock rocketed from about $2 to roughly $60 in two days.

Then the story unraveled. Kodak had granted its executives millions of stock options the day before the announcement, and word appeared to have leaked to local media early. The SEC opened an insider-trading probe, a House committee demanded records, and the DFC froze the loan pending the investigation. The entire gain round-tripped.

It is the case that most literally embodies the thesis: informed, option-based positioning around a catalyst that insiders could see coming. IAS had flagged one-sided, purely-aggregated OTM-put accumulation right as the stock topped.

Read this honestly

Informed, not privileged

The tape showed accumulation. It cannot prove who traded, what they knew, or why.

Direction was not predicted

IAS called that a large move was coming — magnitude, never which way. Two cases in this library resolved UP; that is the proof.

Ranked by magnitude

The edge is the magnitude estimate — P(large move) — not raw IAS. A high IAS with a low magnitude estimate is unusual but not notable for movement.

Long volatility, not long puts

These names often spike the other way first. The historical behavior looks like long volatility, not a directional put position.

All case studies How IAS works See today’s signals

This is a historical, out-of-sample detection shown for illustration. Informed Accumulation is a research and data signal, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it does not predict the direction of any single name. AInvest Options Pilot is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Options involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.