BITO: No action needed
CPI (Aug) lands today — the options market is pricing a bigger move than BITO usually makes over 20 trading days. (market-wide)
Where BITO sits today on protection cost vs. fragility — neither axis is a prediction, it's where the name is right now.
Why now — BITO's calendar
A catalyst tells you when to look. The tape tells you whether protection is worth buying. They are never combined into one number.
- TODAYCPI (Aug) today · market-wide2026-09-11 · Medium impact
- TODAYMichigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) today · market-wide2026-09-11 · High impact
- IN 5 DAYSFed Interest Rate Decision in 5 days · market-wide2026-09-16 · High impact
- IN 5 DAYSRetail Sales MoM (Aug) in 5 days · market-wide2026-09-16 · High impact
- Housing Starts (Aug) in 6 days · market-wide2026-09-17 · High impact
- Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/12) in 6 days · market-wide2026-09-17 · Medium impact
- Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/19) in 13 days · market-wide2026-09-24 · Medium impact
- Durable Goods Orders MoM (Aug) in 14 days · market-wide2026-09-25 · High impact
- CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) in 18 days · market-wide2026-09-29 · High impact
- ADP Employment Change (Sep) in 19 days · market-wide2026-09-30 · Medium impact
- Core PCE Price Index MoM (Aug) in 19 days · market-wide2026-09-30 · High impact
- Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/26) in 20 days · market-wide2026-10-01 · Medium impact
- ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep) in 20 days · market-wide2026-10-01 · Medium impact
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) in 20 days · market-wide2026-10-01 · High impact
- Unemployment Rate (Sep) in 21 days · market-wide2026-10-02 · High impact
- ISM Services PMI (Sep) in 24 days · market-wide2026-10-05 · High impact
- Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/03) in 27 days · market-wide2026-10-08 · Medium impact
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) in 28 days · market-wide2026-10-09 · High impact
We track scheduled earnings dates and scheduled macro releases. Nothing else — not litigation, not regulatory decisions, not product launches — so an empty list means nothing is scheduled in what we track, not that nothing can happen. Scheduled releases are read through 2026-10-11.
Is protection worth buying?
Why it reads that way
The readings that actually moved BITO's two scores today, loudest first, with each one's share of its blend.
Protection is priced in the cheap band (3.02) — near-dated vol is priced 59% below far-dated, and downside puts carry 2.1 IV points more than at-the-money, measured against this name's own rolling 20-trading-day realized moves (484 overlapping windows). Fragility reads resilient (3.38): it is trading 18% above its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.
- 20%near-dated vol is priced 59% below far-dated — reads cheaper
- 20%downside puts carry 2.1 IV points more than at-the-money — reads cheaper
- 20%implied vol sits in the 31th percentile of its own past year — reads cheaper
- 20%options are pricing vol 24% above what the stock has actually been realizing — reads richer
- 20%the move being priced is 1.07x this name's own median 20-trading-day move — reads richer
- 50%it is trading 18% above its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability — reads more resilient
- 50%its realized-vol regime is stable — reads neutral
Informed OTM-put accumulation is a paid fragility input and is not shown at your tier. It reads the option tape for put accumulation building ahead of a move. Only its top tier scores: BIG_MOVE measured 1.57x on n=2,010 prior signals, while the tier below it measured exactly 1.00x — no edge — and is excluded from the score entirely. This name may or may not carry a reading; that is the part being withheld.
Only inputs that were actually measured for this name are listed. A reading that was missing contributed nothing and its weight was redistributed across the rest — it is not shown, because it did not participate. The withheld input above is the exception: where it was measured, it did participate in the fragility score you can see — it is the row that is gated, not the reading.
Implied vs. realized move
How often BITO's actual move around an earnings print has beaten what options priced in. This block is earnings-conditional; it is deliberately not filled in from rolling realized moves, which measure a different thing.
BITO has no earnings history, so there is no earnings beat-rate to report. Its protection cost is measured against its own rolling realized moves instead — see the basis line on the protection-cost card above.
What structure, and can you fill it?
Very wide — the fill is likely to cost more than the edge
ATM bid-ask is 22.9% of mid, measured off the trade tape.
Educational, not investment advice. Protection cost and fragility scores reflect the current session's options market data. Beat rate reflects historical implied-vs-realized moves and is not a forecast.