IV is low with unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 12.1% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.18x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 18% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.05x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 25.9% — normal range
Effective IV 41.6% (ATM 25.9% + spread 7.9% + bias) — excellent value
Total drag 12.62% (spread 7.86% + slippage 4.76%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 50.60 (vega 39.772 / spread 7.86%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +3% (neutral) — Raw: +4%
|OI skew| 25.3% — call-heavy
Vol skew +1.2%, OI skew +25.3% — weak (same direction)
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -12%, ATM: +2%, OTM: +6% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 71% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.7x avg — normal
Vol/OI 4.4% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -1.2% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 66% — active vs sector
Large trade volume 9% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 43% — patient
Conviction +3 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 7.9% — wide
OI 427,953 — deep
Volume 18,705/day — active
$0.39 to cross — cheap
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 20% — much tighter than sector
Depth 117.30000000000001 contracts (bid:57.7 ask:59.6) — adequate
Avg slippage 4.76% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +5.0% — backwardation
IV percentile 12% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 0.6pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 1287.11 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
caution advised: Earnings in 30d (low risk); CPI in 1d (HIGH)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +3% @ 51% consistency — unclear
Score 39 (ITM 20% + inst 9%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.