TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
TMF Options Overview
unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
TMF Gamma Walls
Value
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 56.5% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.21x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 73% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.13x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 38.5% — normal range
Effective IV 79.3% (ATM 38.5% + spread 20.4% + bias) — fair
Total drag 28.65% (spread 20.40% + slippage 8.25%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 1.59 (vega 3.251 / spread 20.40%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +8% (neutral) — Raw: +5%
|OI skew| 11.2% — balanced
Vol skew +7.6%, OI skew +11.2% — weak (same direction)
0-DTE 22%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -36%, ATM: +9%, OTM: +16% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 26% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.3x avg — normal
Vol/OI 8.3% — normal turnover
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -1.1% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 80% — active vs sector
Large trade volume 26% — mixed
Aggressive execution 35% — patient
Conviction +8 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 20.4% — wide
OI 227,350 — deep
Volume 18,827/day — active
$1.02 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 80% — wider than sector
Depth 641.9000000000001 contracts (bid:297.8 ask:344.1) — deep
Avg slippage 8.25% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +12.9% — backwardation
IV percentile 56% — neutral
IV kink 4.8pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 149.83 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
caution advised: No earnings detected; FOMC in 5d; CPI in 0d (HIGH)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +8% @ 54% consistency — unclear
Score 56 (ITM 20% + inst 26%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Sep 7, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.