AG institutional options flow analysis — multi-leg block trades, dominant direction, and gamma analysis from the public options tape for March 26, 2026. Articles older than 60 days are public; a free account reads back to 30 days, Pro to 5, and AIme Premium reads today's unusual options trades with no delay.

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AG Unusual Options Activity — 2026-03-26

Institutional flow on 2026-03-26

Multi-leg block trades, dominant direction, and gamma analysis

$1.5M1 trade
STANDALONE

Trade Details

BUY$25 CALL2026-12-18$1.5MSTANDALONE

Full Analysis

🥈 AG Whale Just Loaded Up $1.5M in Dec 2026 Calls — Silver Supercycle Bet Is ON! 🚀

📅 March 26, 2026 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

🎯 The Quick Take

Someone just dropped $1.5 MILLION on AG $25 calls expiring December 2026 — a pure bullish bet that First Majestic Silver explodes 23% higher from today's price of $20.31 by year-end. This isn't a hedge or a spread — it's a standalone directional bet with z-score 8.1 (EXTREMELY UNUSUAL), placed just two days after BMO Capital upgraded AG to Outperform. Translation: Smart money is positioning for a major silver rally and AG is their high-octane vehicle of choice.

📊 Company Overview

First Majestic Silver Corp (AG) is one of the world's largest primary silver producers, operating four mines in Mexico with growing gold exposure:

  • Market Cap: $10.2B (NYSE-listed mid-cap miner)
  • Industry: Silver & Gold Mining, North America
  • Current Price: ~$20.31 at time of trade
  • Primary Business: Silver production and development; four operating Mexican mines (San Dimas, Santa Elena, La Encantada, Cerro Los Gatos) + Jerritt Canyon Nevada gold asset
  • Revenue Mix: 60% silver, balance gold and base metals
  • Cash Position: $937.7M — strongest in company history after record 2025

💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (March 26, 2026 @ 09:57:04):

Order Type: BTO Standalone | Strategy: Long Call (Directional Bullish Bet)

TimeSymbolSideBuy/SellCall/PutStrikeVolOIExpSizePremiumSpotOption PriceOption Symbol
09:57:04AGASKBUYCALL$2511K28K2026-12-183,326$1.5M$20.31$4.50AG20261218C25

🤓 What This Actually Means

This is a pure directional long call — no hedge, no spread, no complex structure. Here's what went down:

  • 💸 Premium paid: $1.5M ($4.50 per contract × 3,326 contracts × 100 shares)
  • 🎯 Target strike: $25 requires a 23% rally from the $20.31 spot price
  • ⏰ Time horizon: December 18, 2026 expiration — 267 days to work — captures Q1 earnings (May 13), mill expansion milestones in H2 2026, and full silver seasonality cycle
  • 📊 Size relative to OI: 3,326 contracts vs. 28,000 OI = 11.9% of existing open interest in one shot
  • 🔥 Z-Score of 8.1 (EXTREMELY UNUSUAL): This size of trade in AG happens maybe a handful of times per year. Out of the last 30 days of data, only 4 similar trades were recorded. We're talking serious conviction, not noise

What's really happening here: This trader sees the $1.5M as a defined-risk ticket on a silver supercycle thesis. AG is a high-beta silver proxy — the stock has historically moved 2-3x the percentage move of silver. If silver advances from $67-68/oz toward the $80-100/oz range that J.P. Morgan and UBS are forecasting, AG's earnings could accelerate dramatically and the stock could easily clear $25. At $4.50, they're paying for the leverage without the margin call risk. For the $25 calls to expire worthless, AG essentially has to stay flat or decline for nine months — that's the bet on the other side.

Unusual Score: 🔥 EXTREMELY UNUSUAL (Z-Score 8.1, 4 similar trades observed in history) — This is not your neighbor Bob. The 11K volume against 28K OI in a single institutional block at 09:57 is a clear signal of conviction buying, not retail flow.

📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

AG YTD Chart

AG has had an explosive and volatile ride — up +162.5% over the past year (from $6.96 in March 2025), hitting a 52-week high of $32.43 before a sharp pullback. The stock entered 2026 riding a historic silver supercycle, peaked in the $28-32 zone, then sold off hard in March as silver pulled back from ~$72.60 to ~$67.75 in a single session (-6.7%).

Key chart observations:

  • 🚀 Massive YoY rally: $6.96 to $20.31 represents the silver supercycle in action — AG's beta to silver amplifies every move
  • 📉 Sharp March correction: Stock traded near $18.27 on March 20 before recovering to $20.78 by March 25 — this pullback created the entry opportunity the call buyer is capitalizing on
  • 🎢 High beta profile: AG's 52-week range of $5.19-$32.43 shows this stock is not shy — corrections of 30%+ are normal; recoveries are equally violent
  • 📊 Volume pattern: The unusual call buying at $25 strike at today's open suggests institutional accumulation on the dip
  • ⚠️ Volatility context: A -6.7% silver move in ONE day shows why the Dec 2026 expiry matters — you need runway to absorb near-term noise

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

AG Gamma S/R

Current Price: ~$19.62 (end of day)

The gamma exposure map shows where market maker positioning creates natural price magnets and barriers:

🔵 Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):

  • $19.50 — Immediate support with 1.68 total gamma exposure (nearest floor, active)
  • $19.00 — Secondary support at 6.03 gamma (strongest nearby floor — dealers will aggressively defend this)
  • $18.00 — Structural floor at 2.34 gamma (8.2% below current price — key longer-term level)
  • $17.00 — Deep support at 3.14 gamma (13.3% below price — disaster scenario buffer)
  • $16.00 — Extended floor at 1.84 gamma (18.4% below — extreme drawdown zone)

🟠 Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):

  • $20.00 — Immediate ceiling at 8.93 gamma — STRONGEST RESISTANCE (just $0.38 overhead at time of trade!) — this is the wall to clear first
  • $20.50 — Light resistance at 0.64 gamma (softer ceiling, breakout zone if $20 clears)
  • $21.00 — Secondary ceiling at 5.75 gamma (7.1% above current price)
  • $22.00 — Major resistance at 4.24 gamma (12.2% overhead — midpoint to the $25 target)
  • $23.00 — Extended ceiling at 1.35 gamma (17.3% above price)

What this means for traders: AG is trading just BELOW the most significant resistance level on the board — the $20 strike carries the heaviest call gamma at 8.93. Market makers will sell into any attempt to break $20 cleanly, creating a natural friction zone. The $19 support at 6.03 gamma is the floor to watch — if AG holds above $19 on any further silver weakness, the technical structure remains intact for a recovery toward the $25 target.

Net GEX Bias: Bullish — overall gamma exposure tilts in favor of upward price resolution once $20 resistance is absorbed. The $25 call buyer is essentially positioned for what happens after $20 gets cleared.

Implied Move Analysis

AG Implied Move

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations:

  • 📅 Weekly (March 27 — 1 day): ±$0.82 (±4.16%) → Range: $18.80 - $20.44
  • 📅 Monthly OPEX (April 17 — 22 days): ±$2.85 (±14.53%) → Range: $16.77 - $22.47

Translation for regular folks: The options market is pricing in a 4.16% swing ($0.82) by tomorrow for weekly expiration — significant for a single trading day, reflecting the volatility hangover from silver's -6.7% drop today. But the real story is the 14.5% implied move ($2.85) through April OPEX — that's a $16.77-$22.47 range which could reach the $22 gamma resistance if the bull case plays out.

For the December 2026 calls, the implied range is far wider — the market is pricing in substantial volatility through year-end, which is exactly what a directional options buyer needs. The call buyer is not fighting the volatility — they're buying it.

🎪 Catalysts

Full catalyst research: AG Catalyst Report

✅ Recent Catalysts (Already Happened)

Q4 2025 Earnings Beat — February 19, 2026 💰

  • Revenue: $463.9M (+169% YoY), beat consensus $403.71M by 14.9%
  • EPS: $0.30, beat consensus $0.18 by 66.7%
  • Record mine operating earnings of $237.8M
  • Cash treasury hit a record $937.7M

Dividend Doubled — January 2026 💵

FTSE All-World Index Inclusion — March 2026 📊

  • Added to FTSE All-World Index (USD) signaling passive fund inflow potential
  • Stock initially dropped 13.4% on coinciding silver price weakness — set up today's buying opportunity

BMO Capital Upgrade — March 24, 2026 (Just 2 Days Ago!) 🔼

Positive Jerritt Canyon Drill Results — March 2026 ⛏️

🔥 Upcoming Catalysts (Next 6 Months)

Del Toro Mine Sale Closing — End of April 2026 🏦

Q1 2026 Earnings — May 13, 2026 (Confirmed) 📊

  • Key quarter to watch: silver averaged $80+/oz through Q1 — could produce another revenue beat
  • First dividend under 2% formula expected to be announced alongside
  • AISC guidance ($26.15-$27.91/AgEq oz) vs. actuals will be the key variable for margin bulls

First Enhanced Dividend Payment — May 2026 💰

Santa Elena & Gatos Mill Expansions — H2 2026 🏭

Jerritt Canyon Restart Decision — 2026-2027 ⚡

  • Company promised an update; BMO cited this as a major 2026 catalyst
  • A restart would add a high-margin gold asset with ~100K oz/year historic production
  • Zero capital deployment required at current drilling stage — purely free option on company's balance sheet

Silver Price Macro Tailwinds — Ongoing 📈

🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, implied move data, and upcoming catalysts, here are the scenarios through December 18, 2026 expiration (267 days):

📈 Bull Case (30% probability)

Target: $27-$32

How we get there:

  • 💪 Silver reaches $90-100/oz by mid-2026 per UBS base case — AG earnings triple vs. current run rate
  • 🏭 Both mill expansions complete on time in H2 2026 — throughput boost shows in Q3 guidance
  • ⛏️ Jerritt Canyon restart announced — adds gold production, diversifies revenue base and unlocks re-rating
  • 📊 BMO's C$35 target implies ~$26-28 USD — valuation re-rates from 2.2x NAV back toward historical 3x NAV
  • 🔼 Breakout above $20 gamma resistance and $21 secondary ceiling unlocks path to $25-32 zone
  • 💵 Convertible notes at $22.36 strike create floor under stock near conversion price
  • ✅ Q1 earnings beat consensus convincingly, setting strong tone for rest of year

Call P&L in Bull Case:

  • Stock at $28 on Dec 18: Calls worth ~$3.00 (slightly ITM at expiry), premium paid $4.50 → net loss reduced to $1.50/share but directionally wrong
  • Stock at $30 on Dec 18: Calls worth ~$5.00 → breakeven range; small net gain
  • Stock at $32 on Dec 18: Calls worth $7.00, gain = $2.50/share × 332,600 shares = **$831K profit on $1.5M invested (55% ROI)**

🎯 Base Case (45% probability)

Target: $20-$25 range (GRIND HIGHER)

Most likely scenario:

  • ✅ Silver holds $70-80/oz range throughout 2026 — solid but not explosive
  • 📊 Q1 earnings (May 13) meet guidance — AISC inline, revenues decent given silver price
  • 🏭 Mill expansions progress on track, H2 production outlook positive but priced in
  • ⚖️ Stock grinds from $20 toward $22-23 by Q2, then pulls back to $20-21 area before recovering into year-end
  • 📉 Dec 18 expiry finds AG around $23-24 — calls expire slightly OTM or marginally ITM, majority of premium lost
  • 🔄 The trade is a loser but the thesis was sound — silver supercycle intact but timing/magnitude of move insufficient

Call P&L in Base Case:

  • Stock at $23 on Dec 18: Calls expire worthless → lose ~$1.5M (100% loss on this position)
  • Stock at $25 on Dec 18: Calls at-the-money, expire worth ~$0 → lose ~$1.5M
  • Stock at $26 on Dec 18: Calls worth $1.00 → recover $332K of $1.5M ($1.2M net loss, 80% loss)

📉 Bear Case (25% probability)

Target: $14-$18 (SILVER WEAKENS)

What could go wrong:

  • 😰 Silver drops toward TD Securities' low estimate of $49.25/oz — margin compression tanks AG earnings
  • 🚨 Mexico tax arbitration ($500M+ NAFTA dispute) reaches adverse ruling — creates headline risk and potential liability
  • ⏰ Mill expansions delayed — execution risk on both Santa Elena and Gatos simultaneous expansions
  • 📉 62.7% share dilution overhang plus convertible note conversion pressure at $22.36 creates ceiling effect
  • 🐻 Broader precious metals selloff if Federal Reserve tightens — non-yielding metals face headwinds
  • 🌍 Mexico security/cartel risk escalates, disrupting operations in Zacatecas/Chihuahua
  • 💀 Stock falls back to $18 gamma support zone — calls expire deep OTM, full $1.5M loss

Critical support levels in bear case:

  • 🛡️ $19.00: Strong gamma support (6.03) — MUST HOLD or sentiment shifts bearish
  • 🛡️ $18.00: Secondary structural floor (2.34 gamma) — represents ~11% further decline
  • 🛡️ $17.00: Extended deep floor (3.14 gamma) — would represent near-40% drawdown from recent high

💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Ride Silver Exposure with Less Risk

Play: Buy AG stock shares on a dip to the $18.50-$19.00 gamma support zone

Why this works:

  • 🎯 Entry at or near $19 gamma support gives defined risk with $17 as a stop (two sigma support below)
  • 💰 Even at modest $75/oz silver, AG's 2026 guidance implies strong cash flow and continued dividends
  • 📈 Stock exposure captures upside without time decay drag — no expiry pressure
  • 🏦 $937.7M cash fortress means no balance sheet risk even in a silver downturn
  • 💵 2% quarterly dividend formula creates income floor while you wait for catalysts to play out
  • ⏰ Patient positioning into Q1 earnings (May 13) and H2 mill expansion news

Rough parameters:

  • 🎯 Entry: $18.50-$19.00 (near strong gamma floor)
  • 📈 Target: $24-$26 (BMO's implied USD target zone, 12-month horizon)
  • 🛡️ Stop: $16.50 (below $17 gamma support — accept ~12-15% downside vs. potential 30-40% upside)
  • 📊 Risk/Reward: approximately 1:3

Risk level: Moderate | Skill level: Beginner-friendly

⚖️ Balanced: Replicate the Whale with a Smaller Budget

Play: Buy fewer December 2026 $25 calls — same thesis, right-sized for your account

Structure: Buy Dec 18 2026 $25 calls — same contract the whale bought today

Why this works:

  • 🤝 You're literally piggybacking the exact same trade as the $1.5M institutional buyer — just fewer contracts
  • 🎯 December 2026 expiry gives 267 days for the silver thesis to play out across Q1 earnings, mill expansions, and potential Jerritt Canyon catalyst
  • 💸 At $4.50/contract, cost is $450 per contract ($45,000 for 100 contracts) — defined risk
  • 📅 Captures the full catalyst calendar: Q1 earnings (May), Del Toro close (April), dividend (May), mill expansions (H2), Jerritt Canyon (H2)
  • 📊 The $25 strike gives AG room to bounce off $19-20, climb through $21-23 gamma resistance, and still have time to push to $25+

Estimated P&L:

  • 💰 Cost: ~$4.50 per contract ($450 each)
  • 📈 Breakeven at expiry: ~$29.50 (strike $25 + $4.50 premium)
  • 🚀 Max upside: unlimited above $29.50
  • 📉 Max loss: $4.50/contract (100% of premium) if AG below $25 on Dec 18

Entry timing:

  • ⏰ Today's price is valid — the whale bought at $4.50, you can replicate near same level
  • 🎯 If AG dips further toward $18-19 gamma support, calls may get cheaper (lower spot = lower call delta) — could be better entry
  • ❌ Don't chase if AG rallies quickly above $22 before you enter — premium will inflate

Position sizing: Limit to 1-3% of portfolio — this is a high-conviction speculation, not core holding

Risk level: Moderate-High (defined risk, long-dated directional bet) | Skill level: Intermediate

🚀 Aggressive: December Call Spread — Cap Cost, Keep Upside

Play: Buy the $25 call, sell the $30 call (December 2026 vertical spread)

Structure: Buy $25 calls + Sell $30 calls (same December 18, 2026 expiry)

Why this could work:

  • 💸 Selling the $30 call against your long $25 call reduces the net premium you pay significantly
  • 🎯 Captures the entire $25-$30 move (24%-48% rally from current price) — the most realistic bull case outcome
  • 📊 If AG reaches $30 at expiry (near 52-week high territory), spread pays full $5 width minus your net debit
  • ⚡ Theta decay is partially offset by the short $30 call — time decay hurts both legs equally
  • 🔄 If silver reaches $85-90/oz per J.P. Morgan forecast, AG $30 is absolutely achievable

Estimated P&L (approximate — will vary with IV):

  • 💰 Net debit: ~$2.50-$3.00 (buying $4.50 call, selling ~$1.50-$2.00 for the $30 call)
  • 📈 Max profit: $2.00-$2.50 per spread (stock above $30 at expiry) = 67-100% ROI
  • 📉 Max loss: Net debit ($2.50-$3.00 per spread) — less than buying the naked call
  • 🎯 Breakeven: ~$27.50-$28.00 (lower than the naked call breakeven of $29.50)

IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION:

  • ⚠️ By selling the $30 call, you cap upside above $30 — if AG rips to $32-35 on a silver spike, you miss the extra gains
  • 🎯 Best for traders who believe AG reaches $26-30 but don't have conviction on a full supercycle explosion above $30
  • 📊 The uncapped naked $25 call remains preferable if you have full conviction on a $30+ scenario

Risk level: Moderate (defined risk, capped reward) | Skill level: Intermediate-Advanced

⚠️ Risk Factors

Don't ignore these landmines:

  • 🌎 Mexico concentration risk is the elephant in the room: 91% of AG's revenue comes from Mexico across four mines in states with elevated cartel activity (Zacatecas, Chihuahua). Any significant security incident, mine disruption, or regulatory action could crater production overnight. The ongoing NAFTA arbitration over $500M+ in disputed taxes from San Dimas mine represents an unresolved financial overhang that markets are discounting — for now.

  • 🥈 AG's fate is 80% determined by silver prices: On March 26 alone, silver dropped from ~$72.60 to ~$67.75 (-6.7%). AG's high beta means that translates to a proportionally larger stock move. The $25 call needs silver to hold above $70/oz AND ideally climb toward $80-90/oz. TD Securities' bear case is $49.25/oz — that scenario would put the $25 call completely underwater.

  • 💀 The $25 strike requires a 23% rally — and even the breakeven is $29.50 (+45%): The naked call structure means AG doesn't just need to rally to $25, it needs to push THROUGH $25 to recoup any premium. At $4.50 cost, the breakeven at expiry is $29.50 — a level AG hasn't consistently traded since before its March correction. This is a high-bar outcome bet.

  • 📉 Production is declining in 2026: 2026 guidance of 13.0-14.4M oz silver is 8-16% BELOW 2025's record 15.4M oz. Simultaneously, AISC is guided 23-32% higher at $26.15-$27.91/AgEq vs. $21.17 in 2025. Less silver at higher cost — you need silver prices to stay elevated just to maintain margins.

  • 🏦 Dilution and convertible note overhang: Shares outstanding grew 62.7% in the past year from the Gatos acquisition and convertible notes. The $350M convertible notes due 2031 convert at ~$22.36/share — that's only 10% above current price, meaning every rally toward $22-23 faces potential conversion selling pressure.

  • 👀 Insider selling on the recent rally: AG insiders have sold more shares than they've purchased over the past three months. When management is reducing exposure while options buyers are loading up calls, that's worth noting.

  • 🎢 Implied move shows $16.77 as the April downside scenario: The options market is pricing AG could trade as low as $16.77 by April 17 OPEX. If AG breaks below $17 gamma support, the call position becomes deeply underwater fast with 267 days of time value working against you.

🎯 The Bottom Line

Real talk: Someone just put up $1.5 million on AG $25 calls expiring December 2026 — and they did it TWO DAYS after BMO Capital upgraded the stock and at a spot price that's already pulled back 30%+ from its 52-week high. This is classic "buy the dip on the supercycle" institutional positioning.

What this trade tells us:

  • 🎯 Smart money sees the silver macro story (J.P. Morgan's $81 target, UBS's $100 mid-year spike potential) as intact despite today's volatility
  • 📊 The BMO upgrade citing a 2.2x NAV vs. historical 3x+ NAV gap is the valuation catalyst — this trader believes in the re-rating thesis
  • 🏭 December 2026 expiry was chosen deliberately to capture H2 mill expansion completions at Santa Elena and Gatos — the timing is not accidental
  • ⏰ Z-score 8.1 (EXTREMELY UNUSUAL) with 4 similar historical trades means this is rare institutional conviction, not portfolio noise

Three scenarios — here's your game plan:

  • 🐂 If you're bullish on silver AND AG execution: Consider replicating the trade with 1-3% of portfolio in Dec $25 calls, or buy shares at $18.50-$19.00 support for a less levered ride. Mark your calendar for May 13 (Q1 earnings) as the first major inflection point.

  • 👀 If you're watching but not ready: Wait for silver to stabilize above $70/oz and AG to confirm the $19 gamma floor holds. A break back above $20.50 with volume would be a clean technical entry signal. You have 267 days — no need to rush in behind a whale into a volatile session.

  • 🐻 If you're bearish on silver: The $25 call trade is your contrarian signal. High beta to silver at 23% OTM with 9 months to expiry — if silver can't find its footing above $70, this entire position structure unravels. The bear case gamma support floors at $19, $18, and $17 are what stand between current price and serious damage.

Mark your calendar for:

  • 📅 End of April 2026 — Del Toro mine sale closing (cash catalyst)
  • 📅 May 13, 2026 — Q1 2026 earnings (first major valuation reset moment)
  • 📅 H2 2026 — Santa Elena and Gatos mill expansions completing (thesis confirmation)
  • 📅 December 18, 2026 — This $1.5M bet expires (options expiry)

Remember: Options on silver miners are not for the faint of heart. AG has proven it can rally 163% in a year — and pull back 35%+ in a few weeks. The $1.5M call buyer is placing a high-conviction, time-limited bet on a supercycle. Make sure your position size reflects your actual conviction level, not just your excitement about the thesis. 🎢

⚠️ Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. You can lose your entire investment in options positions. Past unusual options activity does not guarantee future stock price movements. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

View AG on AInvest | View AG20261218C25 option chart

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Sep 7, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.