🔄 AVGO $18M Deep-ITM Call — Next-Day OI Confirms a CLOSE (Unwind), NOT a Fresh Bullish Bet

📅 June 26, 2026 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

🔄 Updated June 29, 2026 (morning OI check): The next-day OPRA open-interest snapshot is in and it inverts the original read. Open interest FELL (720 → 471, Δ −249), so this ≈$18M deep-ITM call BUY was a net CLOSING / unwind of an existing position — not the fresh "leveraged long / buying the dip" bet the trade-day tape suggested. The bullish framing below has been corrected. See the ✅ RESOLVED box.

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🎯 The Quick Take

The original trade-day read was that someone deployed ≈$18M into a deep-ITM AVGO call as a leveraged-long, stock-replacement bet. The next-day OI resolution overturns that. Open interest in the $100-strike September call fell by 249 contracts (720 → 471) after this ≈672-contract BUY printed — meaning the dominant effect was closing existing open interest, not creating new long exposure. A deep-ITM call BUY where OI drops is the classic signature of a buy-to-close (BTC) / unwind — a desk taking off or rolling a pre-existing position, not stepping in to "buy the dip." Treat this as a position-management / unwind, not a new directional conviction signal. The Broadcom fundamental story below is unchanged, but this specific print is not evidence of fresh bullish positioning.

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🏢 Company Overview

Broadcom (AVGO) is one of the defining beneficiaries of the AI buildout — a ≈$1.7T-cap semiconductor and infrastructure-software conglomerate operating in two distinct pillars:

• 🤖 AI Semiconductors / Custom Silicon — Broadcom designs custom AI accelerators (XPUs/ASICs) for the world's largest hyperscalers: Google (TPUs), Meta (MTIA), OpenAI (Jalapeño), Anthropic, and Apple. It also supplies AI networking silicon (Tomahawk/Jericho switches, optical DSPs). Custom silicon and networking combined drove a record $10.8B in AI revenue in Q2 FY2026.
• 💾 Infrastructure Software (VMware) — Built on the ≈$69B 2023 VMware acquisition, this segment provides stable, high-margin enterprise recurring revenue.

Sector: Information Technology / Semiconductors | Market Cap: ≈$1.7T

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 What Just Happened

At 11:14:31 ET on June 26, 2026, two simultaneous prints hit the tape on the same contract — a $100-strike September call on AVGO. Combined, they total ≈$18 million in premium paid on the lit (regular displayed-market) order book. No paired stock block was found in the equity tape, confirming this is an options-only directional position, not a delta-hedged financing structure.

⚡ LIT execution — regular displayed-market fills, genuine aggressor buying.

Flow tag: ⚡ LIT — both prints executed on the regular displayed market (not a cross, not a negotiated block). The aggressor paid $267 per contract, consuming visible depth.

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✅ RESOLVED — Next-Day OPRA OI Confirms a CLOSE (Unwind), NOT an Opening Bet 🔄 INVERSION

The June 29 pre-market OPRA snapshot (reflecting June 26 end-of-day) is in. Open interest FELL — inverting the trade-day "if opening" framing.

Leg	Baseline OI (pre-print)	Resolving OI (next-day)	Δ	Trade Size	Verdict
$100 call (Sep 18, 2026)	720	471	−249	672	🔄 CLOSE (BTC / unwind)

Open interest dropped by 249 contracts against a 672-contract BUY. When a deep-ITM call BUY prints and OI falls, the dominant action is buy-to-close (BTC) — a desk unwinding (or rolling off) a pre-existing position, not opening fresh long exposure. This inverts the original "leveraged long / buying the dip" read: it is position management, not new bullish conviction. The Broadcom fundamental backdrop below remains valid as context, but this print should NOT be counted as a new bullish signal.

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🤓 What This Actually Means — Plain English

Let's break this down for everyone, because the $100 strike is going to look confusing at first.

Why buy a $100 call on a $366 stock?

When a call strike is this far below the current stock price, it's called deep in the money. The $100 strike AVGO Sep call is so deep ITM that its delta (the option's sensitivity to stock movement) is essentially ≈1.0 — meaning it moves almost dollar-for-dollar with the stock. At $267 per contract × 100 shares = $26,700 per contract.

This is NOT a bet that AVGO goes from $366 to, say, $380. This is a stock replacement / leveraged-long position. Instead of buying ≈672 × 100 = 67,200 shares of AVGO outright at $365.71 (which would cost ≈$24.6M), the buyer spent ≈$18M in option premium to control the same economic exposure. They get the same upside dollar-for-dollar (and nearly the same downside), while deploying less capital and keeping the rest free.

Why September 18, 2026?

That expiration captures the Q3 FY2026 earnings on September 3, 2026 — the single biggest near-term catalyst. If AVGO delivers the guided $29.4B in revenue (+84% YoY) and guided $16.0B in AI revenue (>200% YoY) on Sept 3, and CEO Hock Tan finally raises — not just reaffirms — the $100B+ FY2027 AI target, this stock could move sharply. The buyer wants exposure through that event.

Why now?

AVGO was at its all-time-high of $480.77 on June 2, and fell ≈14% the very next day after a record Q2 FY2026 beat. The reason? Tan reaffirmed but did not raise the FY2027 AI target, and the VMware software segment missed slightly. The market threw a tantrum. This buyer at $365.71 is stepping in after the dip, betting the fundamentals are intact and the Sept 3 print will force a re-rating.

Translation for regular folks: This is like a professional investor saying "the sale is on, the story hasn't broken, I'm loading up — but I'm doing it with a capital-efficient stock-replacement call instead of buying the shares outright."

The lit execution (no negotiated counterparty) tells us someone lifted the ask on the displayed market — but the next-day OI resolution shows open interest fell, so this lifting was a buy-to-close / unwind, not fresh bullish accumulation. Read it as a desk taking a position off, not "wanting in NOW."

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

AVGO had a monster run to its all-time high of $480.77 on June 2, 2026 — and then reality checked in hard the next day with the ≈14% drop on Q2 earnings. The stock has been consolidating in the $360s-$380s since, sitting ≈21% off the peak. Today's trade at $365.71 is a bet that the dip represents a buy-the-news-that-wasn't entry point rather than the beginning of a structural breakdown.

Key observations:

• 📉 The June 3 selloff was sentiment-driven, not fundamentals-driven — record AI revenue ($10.8B, +143% YoY) triggered a sell-the-news reaction on missing a raised guidance
• 🔄 Post-dip stabilization: Stock has found a floor in the $360-$380 band
• 📊 Analyst community bought the dip too: JPMorgan PT $580, Jefferies PT $550, Mizuho PT $530 — all raised AFTER the selloff

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance

The gamma exposure map shows where options market makers have heavy positions — and therefore where the stock tends to find natural support or face selling pressure:

🔵 Key Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):

• $370 — Nearest and strongest support (Very Strong, 18.97 total GEX). The stock's gamma floor is essentially right here. Market makers will buy dips aggressively at this level.
• $365 — Secondary put-gamma cluster just below — another layer of natural buying.
• $360 — Very Strong support (14.33 total GEX). A second major floor 1.6% below current price. If $370 breaks, $360 is the next landing zone.
• $350 — Strong support (7.44 total GEX). The deep floor; a break here would be a material shift.

🟠 Key Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):

• $375 — First resistance ceiling just above current price (1.1% away). Market makers will sell into any early rally here.
• $380 — Very Strong resistance (12.79 total GEX) — the primary near-term ceiling. A clean break above $380 would be a meaningful technical positive.
• $390 — Strong resistance (7.13 total GEX). The next wall if $380 gives way.
• $400 — Very Strong resistance (10.09 total GEX). Bulls want this level to hold on a recovery — $400+ would put the stock ≈10% off its post-dip lows and start building momentum toward the analyst PT cluster.

What this means for the trade: AVGO is currently sandwiched between Very Strong support at $370 and Very Strong resistance at $380 — a tight 2.7% range. The options market is essentially saying "prove it" before letting the stock run. A catalyst (like a Sept 3 earnings beat-and-raise) is what breaks this range with conviction.

Implied Move Analysis

The options market is pricing in significant moves through several key timeframes:

• 📅 Weekly (July 2, 2026 — 6 days): ±$22.77 (±6.1%) → Range: $347.99 – $393.53
• 📅 Monthly OPEX (July 17 — 21 days): ±$41.77 (±11.3%) → Range: $328.99 – $412.53
• 📅 Quarterly Triple Witch (September 18 — 84 days — THIS TRADE!): ±$90.58 (±24.4%) → Range: $280.18 – $461.34
• 📅 LEAPS (June 17, 2027 — 356 days): ±$187.66 (±50.6%) → Range: $183.10 – $558.42

Translation: By September 18 expiration, the market is pricing in a ±24% move from current levels. That means options traders are genuinely considering scenarios where AVGO trades anywhere from $280 to $461 by September 18. The deep-ITM call buyer is betting AVGO lands closer to $400-$461 — not $280.

The fact that the Q3 FY2026 earnings on September 3 falls inside this September 18 window is not a coincidence. The options market is pricing in earnings as a binary event that could swing the stock dramatically. The buyer bought the leveraged-long call specifically to capture that upside.

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🎪 Catalysts

🔥 Past Catalyst (What Created The Dip)

Q2 FY2026 Earnings — June 3, 2026 (already reported)

Broadcom's Q2 FY2026 results were objectively extraordinary — and yet the stock fell ≈14%:

• ✅ Total revenue: Record $22.2B, +48% YoY (slight miss vs ≈$22.27B consensus)
• ✅ AI semiconductor revenue: Record $10.8B, +143% YoY — above outlook
• ✅ AI bookings: >$30B (2.7x book-to-bill on AI alone)
• ✅ Non-GAAP EPS: $2.44; Free cash flow $10.3B (46% of revenue)
• ❌ Infrastructure software (VMware): $7.18B, +9% — missed ≈$7.32B consensus
• ❌ CEO Hock Tan reaffirmed (did not raise) the $100B+ FY2027 AI target

The stock fell ≈14% from the June 2 all-time high of $480.77, resetting to ≈$379 and continuing lower into the $360s. The reaction was pure valuation reset — "beat but didn't raise, and VMware disappointed" — NOT a sign that the AI franchise is broken.

🚀 Recent Positive Development

OpenAI "Jalapeño" — June 24, 2026

Just two days ago, OpenAI unveiled "Jalapeño", its first custom inference processor co-developed with Broadcom, targeting initial deployment by end-2026. This is the first real-world execution of the October 2025 10-gigawatt co-development agreement and directly validates Broadcom's custom-ASIC leadership. The Jalapeño reveal dropped while AVGO was already beaten up from June 3 — it is a potential re-rating catalyst that the market hasn't fully digested.

📅 Upcoming Catalyst — The Big One

Q3 FY2026 Earnings — September 3, 2026 (68 days away)

This is the catalyst the deep-ITM call is designed to capture. Q3 guidance from June 3 is:

• Total revenue guidance: ≈$29.4B (+84% YoY) — if delivered, this is the largest single-quarter revenue print in Broadcom history
• AI semiconductor revenue: ≈$16.0B (>200% YoY) — more than 6 weeks of Q2's full AI revenue in a single quarter
• Non-GAAP operating margin: ≈67%

The KEY question for the stock: will Hock Tan finally raise the $100B+ FY2027 AI target? If he does, AVGO could snap back violently toward the analyst price-target cluster. Multiple Wall Street firms framed the June 3 dip as a buying opportunity:

• JPMorgan raised PT to $580, top semiconductor pick
• Jefferies raised PT to $550, called selloff a buying opportunity
• Mizuho raised PT to $530, Outperform
• Goldman Sachs raised PT to $525

Average Street PT: ≈$524 — implying ≈+43% upside from today's ≈$365.71.

🌟 Structural Tailwinds

• ≈$73B committed backlog: Long-term supply agreements with Google (TPU through 2031), Meta, Anthropic (≈1GW in 2026, ≈3GW in 2027), Apple, OpenAI — this is recurring, contracted revenue, not one-off wins
• ≈$725B in 2026 hyperscaler capex: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta are Broadcom's customers. Their capex going to $1T+ in 2027 funds the demand for custom silicon and AI networking directly
• 20GW XPU infrastructure platform with Apollo/Blackstone — a massive financing-backed pipeline that adds more contracted revenue beyond the current backlog

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🎲 Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels and implied move data anchored to the Sept 3 Q3 FY2026 earnings catalyst:

📈 Bull Case — Earnings Beat + Raised Guidance (30% probability)

Target: $420 – $461 by September 18 expiration

How we get there:

• 🚀 Q3 FY2026 delivers full guided $29.4B revenue with AI at or above $16.0B
• 🎯 Tan raises (not just reaffirms) FY2027 AI target above $100B
• 💰 New named hyperscaler customer disclosed (e.g., ByteDance) lifts the addressable backlog
• 📈 Jalapeño initial deployment proceeds on schedule (end-2026 reconfirmed)
• ⚡ Stock punches through $380 gamma resistance and $390/$400 walls with momentum

Deep-ITM call P&L in this scenario: At AVGO $450, the Sep $100C is worth ≈$350, up from $267 — roughly ≈+31% profit on the option itself.

🎯 Base Case — Inline Results, Muted Reaction (45% probability)

Target: $360 – $400 range through September expiration

Most likely scenario:

• ✅ Q3 results broadly in-line with guidance ($29.4B, $16B AI) but nothing dramatic
• ⚖️ Tan reaffirms (not raises) FY2027 target again — same June 3 pattern
• 🔄 Stock consolidates between $370 gamma support and $380/$390 resistance
• 📊 No new named customer; Jalapeño timeline unchanged

Deep-ITM call in this scenario: If AVGO stays at ≈$370, the Sep $100C is worth ≈$270 (≈+1% on option). If at $400, worth ≈$300 (≈+12%). Modest outcome.

📉 Bear Case — Miss or Macro Shock (25% probability)

Target: $280 – $340 range (test of deep support / implied-move floor)

What could go wrong:

• 😰 Q3 revenue miss or guidance cut (VMware continues to drag; AI ramp slower than projected)
• 🚨 Jalapeño deployment delay — OpenAI pushes volume ramp to 2027
• 🌍 Macro shock — AI capex pulled back, hyperscaler spending slows
• 📉 Stock cracks below $360 gamma support, flushes toward implied-move floor ($280)

Deep-ITM call in this scenario: If AVGO falls to $320, the Sep $100C is worth ≈$220, down from $267 — loss of ≈17% on the option. Note: The deep-ITM call loses money dollar-for-dollar with the stock below the entry price — no theta buffer exists at near-1.0 delta. This isn't protected like an OTM put.

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💡 Trading Ideas

🛡️ Conservative: Wait for Confirmation, Buy Stock Near Support

Play: Let the Sept 3 earnings be the proof point before entering. Watch for a test of $370 support.

Why this works:

• ⏰ AVGO has a pattern of dramatic post-earnings moves in both directions — the June 3 −14% shows even beat prints can disappoint
• 📊 $370 (Very Strong gamma support) and $360 (Very Strong) are natural re-entry floors if the stock dips
• 🎯 Entering stock near support with a clear stop below $350 (Strong support) gives a defined risk setup
• 🛡️ No need to bet on timing — if the AI story is intact, stock is cheap at $365 vs $524 average analyst PT

Risk level: Low | Skill level: Beginner-friendly

⚖️ Balanced: Near-Term Call Spread (Defined Risk, Bullish)

Play: Buy the AVGO September 18, 2026 $380 call / sell the $420 call (bull call spread)

Why this works:

• 📈 Targets the first major resistance cluster — $380 to $400 to $420 — as the earnings recovery path
• 💰 Cheaper than an outright call: the sold $420 call reduces net debit significantly
• 🎯 Max profit if AVGO is above $420 at September expiration (±24% implied move upper range $461)
• ⏰ September 3 earnings catalyst within the window — you're explicitly positioned for the event

Estimated cost: ≈$8-12 net debit per spread (check live prices). Max profit: $40 wide spread minus the debit. Breakeven: ≈$388-392.

Risk level: Moderate | Skill level: Intermediate

🚀 Aggressive: OTM Call into Earnings (YOLO Territory)

Play: September 18 $420 or $450 calls outright — pure earnings-surprise play

Why this could work:

• 🎰 If Tan raises the FY2027 target AND Jalapeño accelerates, AVGO could gap 15-20% on Sept 3
• 📊 The implied-move upper range by September 18 is $461 — OTM calls at $420/$450 capture that tail scenario
• 💸 Defined risk (premium paid) with potentially explosive payoff if a re-rating occurs

Why this could blow up:

• ⏰ You're buying options into earnings — implied volatility will be elevated, and IV crush post-event could wipe gains even if the stock moves up
• 📉 If earnings are merely "in line" (base case), OTM calls likely expire worthless
• ⚠️ Broadcom proved on June 3 that even a blowout beat can lead to a sell-off if guidance doesn't excite

Only attempt this if you are fully comfortable losing the entire premium. Position size: 1-2% of portfolio maximum.

Risk level: Extreme | Skill level: Advanced only

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👥 For Different Types of Traders

1. YOLO Trader: This ≈$18M print is your signal. Deep-ITM calls with ≈1.0 delta = stock proxy with leverage. If you're playing earnings, look at OTM calls (Sep $420-$450) for the explosive scenario — but be aware you're buying into an elevated IV environment. High risk, high reward.

2. Swing Trader: The trade is well-positioned for the Sept 3 catalyst window. A balanced call spread ($380/$420) gives you directional exposure with defined risk, capturing the $380 → $420 recovery zone the gamma map suggests. Enter post-June 26 if AVGO holds above $370 support.

3. Premium Collector: With AVGO sitting between Very Strong support ($370) and Very Strong resistance ($380), this is a cash-secured put opportunity at $360 or $350 — collecting premium while being willing to own shares at a discount if the stock slips. Implied move suggests ≈$328-$347 as monthly downside risk, so size accordingly.

4. Entry-Level / Learning the Ropes: Here's what to know: the $18M buyer chose a "deep in the money" call (strike $100, stock at $365) because it behaves almost exactly like owning the stock — just with less capital required. The risk is that the stock falls from $365, and the option loses dollar-for-dollar. There's no "downside protection" built in. If you want to learn from this trade, study what a ≈1.0 delta option looks like vs an out-of-the-money option — they're completely different beasts. This buyer is not speculating on a big move; they're substituting the stock with a cheaper capital-efficient equivalent.

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⚠️ Risk Factors & Honest Limits

What the tape CAN prove:

• ✅ Two lit-market BUY prints on AVGO Sep 2026-09-18 $100C, ≈$18M total premium, at 11:14:31 ET
• ✅ No equity tape stock block → options-only position (not delta-hedged, genuinely directional)
• ✅ Lit execution = displayed-market aggressor buying, not a negotiated block cross

What the tape CANNOT prove:

• ✅ Open vs. close — now RESOLVED: next-day OPRA OI fell 720 → 471 (Δ −249), confirming a net CLOSE / unwind (BTC) — this was NOT a fresh opening bullish position
• ❌ Who the buyer is — broker, fund, hedge desk, insider — the tape doesn't tell us
• ❌ Whether there are unseen stock or futures hedges off-exchange that neutralize the delta
• ❌ That this trade will be profitable — directional bets can be very wrong

Key risk factors:

• 🎯 Guidance trap redux: AVGO proved on June 3 that the market will punish "beat but no raise." If Sept 3 delivers the guided revenue but Tan again declines to raise FY2027, the stock could sell off again — and this call loses value dollar-for-dollar.
• ☁️ VMware overhang: The software segment's Q2 miss ($7.18B vs $7.32B consensus) raises questions about VMware renewal/pricing execution. Two soft VMware quarters in a row would shift the narrative.
• 💸 Customer concentration: A handful of hyperscalers (Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, Apple) drive AI revenue. Any single large program slip — Jalapeño delay, Google TPU re-design, Anthropic cap spending — hits the backlog conversion materially.
• 🌍 AI capex sustainability: If "AI bubble" narratives gain traction and hyperscalers pull back 2026–2027 capex plans, the ≈$73B backlog conversion timeline stretches.
• 📉 Deep-ITM = full downside exposure: At ≈1.0 delta, this call loses nearly dollar-for-dollar if AVGO falls. There is no "option premium buffer" — the $267 paid is essentially the stock price minus the $100 strike. A drop to $320 costs ≈$45/contract in option value, same as owning stock at $365.

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Here's the deal: ≈$18 million of deep-ITM AVGO calls traded on the lit market on June 26. The trade-day tape looked like a leveraged-long stock-replacement bet — but the next-day OI snapshot settles it: open interest fell (720 → 471, Δ −249), so this was a net CLOSE / unwind (buy-to-close), not a fresh bullish opening. A desk took a pre-existing position off (or rolled it). Do NOT count this print as new bullish conviction.

The Broadcom fundamental story is unchanged as backdrop: the AI-ASIC franchise (record $10.8B AI revenue in Q2, ≈$73B committed backlog, OpenAI Jalapeño ramping end-2026) remains intact, and Sept 3 Q3 FY2026 earnings (guided ≈$29.4B revenue, ≈$16.0B AI revenue, >200% YoY) is still the next re-rating moment. But that context is about the company — it is not what this specific options print was expressing, since the print was a closing trade.

The gamma structure still frames the battle lines: Very Strong support at $370/$360, Very Strong resistance at $380/$400.

Resolution: ✅ Open vs. close is RESOLVED — next-day OPRA OI fell −249, confirming a CLOSE / unwind (BTC). This is the 🔄 inversion of the original trade-day read.

Mark your calendar:

• ✅ June 29, 2026 (resolved): OPRA OI fell 720 → 471 (Δ −249) — confirmed a CLOSE / unwind, not an opening bet
• 📅 September 3, 2026: Q3 FY2026 earnings — the catalyst this call is built around
• 📅 September 18, 2026: Option expiration — last day to profit or exit
• 📅 End-2026: OpenAI Jalapeño initial deployment — structural AI-revenue catalyst

If you own AVGO: The $370 / $360 gamma support zone is the floor to watch. If it holds, the bull case is intact for the Sept 3 earnings recovery. Set your mental stop below $350 (Strong support) where the technical picture starts to deteriorate.

If you're watching from the sidelines: A pullback to $360-$370 with the gamma support underneath represents a reasonable entry with defined risk. But respect that the June 3 selloff showed AVGO can gap 14% in either direction on earnings — size your position accordingly.

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Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The trade described is provisional — open vs. close cannot be confirmed until next-day OPRA open interest is available. Past unusual options activity does not guarantee future price performance. Deep in-the-money options carry approximately the same dollar risk as holding the underlying stock outright; losses can be significant. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading. The options market is highly competitive — sophisticated institutional participants have significant informational and execution advantages over retail traders.

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Last updated: June 29, 2026 — morning OI check 🔄 INVERTED this trade: next-day OPRA OI FELL 720 → 471 (Δ −249), confirming the ≈$18M deep-ITM call BUY as a net CLOSE / unwind (BTC), NOT a fresh leveraged-long bet. Title, Quick Take, and narrative corrected accordingly. | Source: OPRA tape, Broadcom investor relations, catalyst research dated June 26, 2026

About Broadcom (AVGO): Broadcom Inc. is a global technology leader that designs, develops, and supplies a broad range of semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. Market cap ≈$1.7T. Sector: Information Technology / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment.