🐋 AVGO $33.3M Diagonal — A Big Desk Bets on Broadcom's Fall Recovery

📅 June 29, 2026 | 🔥 Unusual Activity Detected

✅ Update (2026-06-30): Next-day OPRA OI resolves both legs — the Oct $410 long OPENED in full (OI 1,168 → 27,051, Δ +25,883 ≈ the 26,000 block) while the Jul $360 short was a CLOSE (OI 19,610 → 12,126, Δ −7,484). The desk rolled an existing July $360 long up-and-out into a fresh, larger October $410 long — a bullish roll, not a fresh diagonal short. The bullish recovery thesis holds (and arguably strengthens); see the resolved box below.

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🎯 The Quick Take

A desk quietly structured a net ≈$33.3M bullish diagonal call spread in AVGO today — buying 26,000 October $410 calls and selling 17,500 July $360 calls against them to slash the net cost. With Broadcom sitting ≈24% below its June 2 all-time high after a post-earnings guide disappointment, this desk is positioning for a recovery into Q3 earnings (≈September 3–4, 2026) and the OpenAI/Anthropic/Meta XPU ramps kicking into gear in H2. Translation: Someone just paid ≈$33.3M net to bet Broadcom gets back above $410 before October — and they structured it carefully to cut the cost nearly in half.

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📊 Company Overview

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) is one of AI infrastructure's two indispensable suppliers alongside Nvidia:

• Market Cap: ≈$1.73–1.74 trillion — one of the five largest semiconductor companies by market value
• Industry: Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
• Current Price: ≈$370 (down ≈24% from the June 2, 2026 all-time closing high of $480.77, per stockanalysis.com)
• What they actually make: Custom AI accelerators (XPUs) co-designed for Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, and ByteDance; Ethernet AI networking switches and routers (Tomahawk 6, Jericho4); and VMware-powered private cloud infrastructure software (≈$7B/quarter in recurring revenue)
• The June 3 selloff: Q2 FY2026 showed AI revenue up 143% YoY to $10.8B and total revenue up 48% to a record $22.2B — yet the stock dropped ≈15% the next session because the Q3 AI guide of $16.0B missed the ≈$17.2B Wall Street wanted. Classic priced-for-perfection reaction — even a spectacular quarter isn't enough if the guide isn't spectacular too.

That June 3 reset is exactly what today's diagonal is betting against.

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💰 The Option Flow Breakdown

📊 The Tape (June 29, 2026 @ 11:33:27 ET)

All 16 sub-orders printed simultaneously at 11:33:27 ET as a single packaged diagonal entry. These printed as late-reported orders — a common flag for large structured transactions that confirm after the fact rather than in real time on the displayed book. The NBBO data tells the real aggressor story: the desk paid up at or near the offer for the October $410 calls, and sold the July $360s near the bid — a deliberate, cost-conscious structured entry.

Note: 16 individual sub-orders, each printed at 11:33:27 across two contract series. Sizes per sub-order ranged from 2,228–10,400 contracts on the long leg and 1,500–7,000 on the short leg. Grouped totals shown above.

Structure: Bullish diagonal call spread — multi-leg, late-reported Net debit (HEADLINE): ≈$33.3M (paid ≈$72.4M long − received ≈$39.1M short) Gross long: ≈$72.4M (26,000 contracts × $27.90 × 100; do not headline this — gross overstates the actual capital deployed)

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✅ OI RESOLVED (2026-06-30) — LONG OPEN + SHORT CLOSE = BULLISH ROLL

The next-morning OPRA OI snapshot (EOD 06-29, posted ≈06:30 ET on 06-30) is in, and it resolves both legs cleanly. The long October $410 call opened in full — exactly as predicted by size — while the July $360 short turned out to be a close (OI fell, it did not rise). That reframes the package: this is a bullish roll up-and-out, not a fresh diagonal short.

What this means: Because the July $360 open interest FELL by 7,484 (it did not rise), the 17,500-lot sale was predominantly a close of a pre-existing July $360 in-the-money long (STC), not a fresh short opened to finance the diagonal (STO). Put the two legs together and the desk closed an existing July $360 long and redeployed the capital into a larger, fresh October $410 long — a textbook bullish roll up-and-out (up to a higher strike, out to a later expiry that spans Q3 earnings + the OCP summit). The long leg opened exactly as the article predicted (OI 1,168 → 27,051, ≈99.5% of the 26,000 block confirmed as new contracts). Far from weakening the bullish read, rolling a winning long up and out reinforces the recovery thesis. The headline ≈$33.3M net debit is unchanged.

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🤓 What This Actually Means — Plain English

Let's decode what a diagonal call spread does, why this desk used one, and what the two legs tell us separately:

The long October $410 call (BTO — fresh open, confirmed):

The desk bought 26,000 contracts of the October 16, 2026 $410 call. At a spot price of ≈$370, the $410 strike is ≈11% out of the money — this is a recovery bet, not a near-term momentum play. For this to pay off, AVGO needs to rally back through $410 before October 16.

Why October 16 specifically? Because it lands after Q3 earnings (≈September 3–4, 2026) AND just four days after the OCP Global Summit (October 12–15), where Broadcom typically unveils its next-gen AI networking roadmap. Every major catalyst in the next 3.5 months falls INSIDE the window of this long call. The desk isn't guessing on next week's price — they're betting on a fundamental re-rating through Q3 earnings and the OpenAI/Anthropic XPU revenue beginning to show up in the numbers.

The July $360 call (RESOLVED — a CLOSE, making this a roll):

The desk sold 17,500 contracts of the July 17, 2026 $360 call — a strike that is already in the money (AVGO at $370, strike at $360). Next-day OPRA OI resolved this leg as a close (STC): July $360 OI fell from 19,610 to 12,126 (Δ −7,484), so the sale predominantly closed a pre-existing in-the-money July $360 long rather than opening a new short. That generated ≈$39.1M in proceeds while netting the new October longs down to ≈$33.3M. Read together with the long leg, this makes the package a bullish roll up-and-out — close the July $360 long, redeploy into a larger October $410 long — see the ✅ OI RESOLVED box above.

The July short expires in 18 days. Crucially, it expires before Q3 earnings — meaning this desk is NOT short into an earnings binary event, which would create unlimited upside risk on that leg.

Why a diagonal instead of just buying calls outright?

Pure October $410 calls would have cost the full ≈$72.4M gross. The diagonal structure slashes that to ≈$33.3M net by:

• 💰 Collecting ≈$39.1M credit from the short July call immediately
• 📅 Accepting a near-term obligation: the short $360 is ITM, so if AVGO rips sharply upward before July 17, the short call creates a headwind
• 🎯 The "sweet spot" for the diagonal: AVGO recovers gradually toward $410+ by October, without a violent pre-July spike that would stress the short leg

In one sentence: A big desk paid ≈$33.3M net — structuring carefully to avoid paying $72.4M gross — for the right to profit from an AVGO recovery to $410+ by October 16, timing the long-dated bet to capture Q3 earnings and the OpenAI/Anthropic H2 revenue ramp.

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📈 Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

YTD Performance Chart

AVGO had a remarkable run from its 52-week low of $262.66 to an all-time closing high of $480.77 on June 2, 2026 — nearly doubling in under a year, driven by the AI infrastructure super-cycle. Then came the June 3 post-earnings ≈15% drop, and the stock has since settled in the high-$360s. The current setup: a company posting $10.8B quarterly AI revenue that is ≈24% off its peak because of a guide that came in $1.2B below the whisper number.

Key chart observations:

• 🎢 Post-earnings reset: The June 3 drop was the largest single-day decline in over 16 months — not a fundamental breakdown, but a valuation reset on a "merely good" guide
• 📊 Current zone: ≈$366–$375, roughly the mid-April price level before the final leg of the ATH run
• 🎯 The bar for the diagonal: $410 is only ≈11% above today's price — far more achievable than the ≈30% rally needed to retest $480 ATH
• 📅 Next binary event: Q3 earnings ≈September 3–4, 2026 — the market gets its chance to re-rate AVGO on whether AI revenue re-accelerates toward the $16.0B guide (or beyond)

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Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

The gamma exposure map reveals powerful level clustering around current price, with several observations that directly relate to the diagonal structure:

🔵 Put Gamma Support Levels (floors market makers defend):

• $370 — Immediate support with 8.76B total GEX (Strong). AVGO is trading essentially at this level right now, making it a natural near-term anchor. Put gamma here means dealers buy stock as AVGO dips, cushioning downside.
• $360 — Very Strong support at 15.14B total GEX — the single most powerful nearby level on the board. This is also the short strike of the diagonal. The heavy gamma concentration at exactly $360 is notable: market makers with significant open interest at this level will actively delta-hedge around it, potentially creating a "magnetic" effect that keeps AVGO from falling sharply through $360. The diagonal's short leg is parked right on the gamma wall.
• $350 — Strong support at 8.15B total GEX (≈5.4% below current price)
• $330 — Extended floor at 5.77B total GEX (≈11% below current)

🟠 Call Gamma Resistance Levels (ceilings dealers sell into):

• $380 — Very Strong resistance at 11.60B total GEX — the nearest overhead ceiling, only ≈2.7% above current price. This is the first meaningful hurdle for a rally.
• $390 — Strong resistance at 7.32B total GEX (≈5.4% overhead)
• $400 — Major resistance wall at 10.64B total GEX (≈8% overhead) — a significant technical layer before the long strike
• $410 — Resistance at 5.50B total GEX (≈10.8% overhead) — this is the long strike of the diagonal. At $410, AVGO would be pushing through a meaningful gamma cluster.
• $420 — Extended resistance at 5.05B total GEX (≈13.5% overhead)

What this means for the diagonal:

The gamma profile essentially confirms the structure's logic. The short $360 leg sits at the strongest nearby support — the gamma concentration there means AVGO is unlikely to fall dramatically through $360 (providing cover for the ITM short). The path to $410 requires clearing $380 (Very Strong), $400 (major wall), and then $410 itself (resistance wall). That staircase of gamma resistance levels explains why a straight-line rocket to $410 is unlikely — but a gradual recovery over 3.5 months has room to work through each level.

Net GEX bias: Put gamma dominates across the nearby strikes ($370 net GEX is −4.36B; $380 net GEX is −2.27B), which suggests dealers are net long gamma in the current range — this tends to dampen volatility and suppress sharp directional moves, consistent with the "slow recovery" base case for the diagonal.

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Implied Move Analysis

The options market is pricing in significant movement across timeframes — which is both why the October calls cost ≈$27.90/share and why the diagonal structure makes sense as a way to reduce that cost:

Translation for regular folks:

Options traders are pricing a ≈10.5% move by July 17 — that is a $331 to $409 range. Notice that the upper bound of $409 is literally $1 below the long strike of $410. If AVGO rallied to the implied ±1σ upper range by short expiry, the structure would be under maximum stress on the short leg — but the long call would also be approaching the money. The market is not pricing this as a free ride.

By October 16 (long leg expiry), the implied range extends from ≈$270 to ≈$470. The $410 strike sits comfortably inside the upper half of that range, within what the options market considers a realistic outcome. The September quarterly range (which captures Q3 earnings) extends to ≈$460 on the upside — consistent with sell-side targets of ≈$517–$524 if the AI revenue narrative re-accelerates.

Key insight on the structure: The wide September/October implied ranges reflect massive uncertainty around the OpenAI H2 ramp and Q3 earnings re-rating. The diagonal captures that upside optionality via the long October call, while the near-term short July call collects on the elevated 18-day implied volatility (±10.5%) before the earnings binary arrives.

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🎪 Catalysts

🔑 Expiry vs. Catalyst Timeline — Keep These Separate

The short expires before Q3 earnings. The long expires after Q3 earnings and after OCP. This structure is deliberate: the desk is NOT exposed to an earnings binary on the short leg, while the long leg has maximum time to benefit from both events.

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🔥 Most Important Catalyst: Q3 FY2026 Earnings (≈September 3–4, 2026)

This is the pivotal event for the long $410 call. Per public.com earnings calendar, Q3 FY2026 results are expected on or about September 3–4 (Broadcom's fiscal Q3 ends August 2; the company typically reports ≈4–5 weeks later). The market will focus on three specific numbers:

• 📊 AI semiconductor revenue vs. the $16.0B Q3 guide — a beat here reverses the June 3 narrative. Bloomberg noted the selloff was specifically because $16.0B missed the whisper of ≈$17.2B. A Q3 beat changes the story.
• 🚀 Any raise to the fiscal-2027 ">$100B AI" framework — Hock Tan reiterated but did not raise this target in June. Per Yahoo Finance, a target raise is the single biggest re-rating trigger.
• 🤖 Early read-through on the OpenAI H2-2026 deployment — the first actual revenue contribution from the 10GW custom-XPU program would be a transformative data point.

After the June selloff, analysts responded by raising their price targets, viewing the dip as a valuation reset rather than a thesis break. Per TheStreet: KeyBanc to $575, Bernstein to $550, Goldman Sachs to $525. The aggregate analyst target is now ≈$517–$524 per MarketBeat — "Strong Buy" consensus with 26–48 analysts covering. At ≈$370 today, that implies ≈40% upside if the AI ramp re-accelerates. The $410 long strike is modest relative to that target.

🚀 OpenAI 10GW Custom-XPU Ramp (H2 2026)

The single largest swing factor for AVGO's re-rating. Per Data Center Dynamics, the 10-gigawatt co-development program begins rolling out in the second half of 2026, with full deployment targeting end-2029. The first visible H2 revenue contribution — even partial — would validate the fiscal-2027 ">$100B AI" narrative. This is what the long October call is fundamentally positioned for.

🤝 Anthropic ≈1GW → 3GW TPU Build (2026–2027)

Per CNBC and rcrtech, Broadcom is delivering full server racks (TPU-based) for Anthropic at ≈1GW of capacity in 2026, scaling to ≈3GW in 2027, backed by $10B + $11B in additional orders. Anthropic deliveries flowing through late 2026 provide a second significant revenue stream alongside Google that underpins Q3/Q4 numbers.

🤝 Meta ≈1GW Custom Chip Ramp (Late 2026)

Per CNBC, Meta committed ≈1GW of custom chips with Broadcom in April 2026. Late-2026 shipments are expected to begin contributing to semiconductor solutions revenue — a third customer (alongside OpenAI and Anthropic) with H2 2026 delivery timing.

🌐 OCP Global Summit — October 12–15, 2026 (San Jose)

Four days before the long $410 call expires. Per Broadcom, OCP is Broadcom's flagship AI-networking showcase — the annual venue where it has historically announced next-gen Tomahawk/Jericho/optical roadmap items. A positive AI-networking announcement at OCP the week before October 16 expiry could provide a final push for the long calls.

✅ Past Catalysts (Already Priced In — Context Only)

• Q2 FY2026 Earnings, June 3, 2026: Record quarter — AI revenue $10.8B (+143%), total revenue $22.2B (+48%), per Broadcom IR. Stock dropped ≈15% on the guide shortfall. This reset is the starting point for the diagonal trade.
• Jericho4 now shipping: Industry's first router enabling connectivity across over 1 million XPUs across multiple data centers, per Broadcom IR.
• Tomahawk 6 in production volume: World's first 102.4 Tb/s Ethernet switch, now shipping in volume, per STORDIS.
• Fifth XPU customer ($1B order): An undisclosed customer placed a $1B order for late-2026 delivery, per Tom's Hardware.

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🎲 Price Targets & Scenarios

Using gamma levels, implied move data, and upcoming catalysts:

📈 Bull Case — for the long $410 Oct call

Target: $410–$470 by October 16 (within the implied range)

• 💪 Q3 AI revenue beats the $16.0B guide — strong Anthropic and OpenAI H2 contributions visible
• 🚀 Hock Tan raises the fiscal-2027 ">$100B AI" framework — the single biggest re-rating trigger
• 🤖 First OpenAI H2-2026 XPU revenue appears in Q3 results — validates the multi-year thesis
• 🌐 OCP Summit (Oct 12–15) delivers a positive next-gen networking announcement just before expiry
• 📊 $380 gamma resistance (Very Strong, 11.60B GEX) cleared → $400 (10.64B) → $410 (5.50B) staircase
• 🎯 The October 16 implied upper bound of ≈$470 becomes the ceiling; $410 strike clears comfortably

🎯 Base Case — slow recovery

Target: $380–$410 by October 16

• ✅ Q3 earnings in-line with the $16.0B guide — no raise to the FY27 target
• 📊 AVGO grinds from ≈$370 toward $380–$400 as XPU deliveries add incrementally
• 💤 Stock stays below $410 at October 16 expiry — the long call expires partially or fully OTM
• 💰 Net result: the $33.3M net debit is partially recovered from the short $360 credit; long expires with limited value

In the base case, the diagonal loses money on the long leg but the short credit partially offsets it. The structure's P&L profile is better than a straight long call in a slow-recovery scenario.

📉 Bear Case — thesis break

Target: $330–$360 by October 16

• 😰 Q3 AI revenue misses the $16.0B guide — "the curve is flattening" narrative takes hold, per Motley Fool
• ⚠️ OpenAI or Anthropic XPU deliveries delayed into 2027 — H2 revenue push-out
• 📉 Stock retests $360 gamma support (Very Strong, 15.14B total GEX) or lower
• 🔴 Long $410 call expires worthless; net loss = ≈$33.3M (the full net debit)
• 🛡️ The $350 support (8.15B GEX) and $360 Very Strong support wall provide natural floors

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💡 4-Reader Take: What To Do With This Information

🚀 YOLO Trader — "The Direct Rocket Bet"

If you want pure directional upside without the complexity of managing two legs, the October 16, 2026 $410 calls are the instrument. Same expiry and strike as the whale's long leg. At ≈$27.90/share, if AVGO recovers to $450 by October 16 (within the implied range), these calls could be worth ≈$40–$50 — a 43–79% return.

⚠️ The hard truth: This strike is ≈11% OTM and requires both a recovery AND a fundamental re-rating catalyst (Q3 earnings beat). If AVGO stays below $410 at expiry, you lose the entire premium. Risk only what you are genuinely prepared to lose in full. Position size matters more than the trade itself.

⚖️ Swing Trader — "Scale the Structure"

The diagonal itself is the play if you want a cost-efficient approach to the same thesis. A retail-sized version: buy a smaller number of the October $410 calls, and simultaneously sell a near-term OTM call (e.g., a July $385 or $390 call) to collect premium against the long. This reduces your upfront debit while keeping October upside.

Key milestones to manage: July 17 short expiry — if the near-term call expires worthless (AVGO below your short strike), excellent: the debit shrinks and the October long runs free. Then September 3–4 Q3 earnings becomes your next binary event. Consider taking partial profits if the October call doubles before expiry — don't wait for perfection.

🛡️ Premium Collector — "Let the IV Work for You"

If you already own AVGO stock, this trade structure is a lesson in cost-of-carry management. The market is pricing ±10.5% by July 17 — that is expensive implied volatility to sell. Consider a covered call against your AVGO position: selling a July $380 call, for example, generates immediate income (elevated IV) while providing ≈2.7% buffer before your upside is capped.

If AVGO does not rally through $380 by July 17, you keep the premium and repeat for August. If it does, you sell stock at $380 — a good outcome from today's ≈$370 level. The key downside: if AVGO surges to $430 before July 17, you miss the excess gain above $380.

📚 Beginner — "Understand Before You Act"

If you are newer to options, here is the core takeaway from this trade:

A diagonal call spread is essentially a layaway plan for a directional bet. The desk wanted to own the October $410 calls (full cost ≈$72.4M gross), but instead of paying that full amount, they sold a near-term July $360 call to collect ≈$39.1M in credit — cutting the net cost to ≈$33.3M. The trade-off: they now have a short ITM call that creates some risk if AVGO rallies sharply before July 17.

The most important thing now resolved: Next-day OPRA OI showed the July $360 call's OI fell (19,610 → 12,126) — meaning the desk was closing a prior long, not opening a new short. That makes the whole package a bullish roll (close the July long, open a larger October long), not a fresh diagonal. The bullish read holds.

Do not replicate this trade without understanding how to manage a short in-the-money call. Uncovered short calls carry theoretically unlimited risk and require significant margin.

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⚠️ Risk Factors

What could go wrong — and what the tape cannot prove:

• 🔄 The $360 leg resolved as a CLOSE — this is a roll, not a fresh diagonal. Next-day OPRA OI fell (19,610 → 12,126, Δ −7,484), proving the 17,500-lot sale closed a pre-existing July $360 long rather than opening a new short. The package is therefore a bullish roll up-and-out (close July $360 long → open larger October $410 long), which keeps — and arguably reinforces — the bullish recovery read. The long October $410 leg opened in full as predicted (OI 1,168 → 27,051).

• ⚠️ Valuation leaves no margin for error. At ≈60x trailing earnings, AVGO is priced for sustained hyper-growth. The June 3 drop proved that even a 48%-revenue-growth quarter sells off ≈15% on a guide miss. Q3 needs to meet or beat $16.0B in AI revenue, or the re-rating thesis stalls. Per Bloomberg, the market's tolerance for "good but not spectacular" at this multiple is zero.

• 😰 AI capex cycle risk. If hyperscalers broadly reassess AI infrastructure spending in H2 2026, the OpenAI/Anthropic/Meta XPU ramp delays. Motley Fool flagged this as a real overhang — management's refusal to raise the FY-AI target in June raised yellow flags for some investors about whether the curve is flattening.

• 📉 Short $360 leg is already in the money. With AVGO at $370 and the short strike at $360, the desk entered the short ≈$10 ITM. If AVGO remains above $360 through July 17 expiry (the base expectation given current price), the short leg loses money relative to its premium received — this is the built-in "cost" of using an ITM short to finance the position. Retail traders copying the structure without understanding this dynamic can be surprised.

• 🔮 Counterparty and full context are unknowable. The tape tells us size and price; it cannot tell us whether this is a standalone speculative position, part of a multi-leg hedge on stock exposure, or a portfolio overlay tied to existing AVGO long positions accumulated at lower prices. A desk with 2M shares of AVGO stock could be using this diagonal purely as a hedge — and their intent would be completely different from what the surface structure suggests.

• 🏭 Customer concentration risk. A handful of hyperscalers (Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, ByteDance) drive the bulk of XPU revenue. An order push-out, a design-insourcing decision, or an AI-capex pullback at any single customer would be material. Per Investing.com, the VMware segment's slowdown to single-digit growth (9% in Q2) is a quiet risk masked by AI exuberance.

• 🎢 Execution risk on multi-gigawatt ramps. The OpenAI 10GW, Anthropic 1→3GW, and Meta 1GW programs require flawless supply-chain execution (TSMC 3nm, HBM, advanced packaging) starting H2 2026. Any delays would push revenue into 2027 and leave the October long calls without their core catalyst.

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🎯 The Bottom Line

Here's the deal: Someone just structured a ≈$33.3M net diagonal call spread on AVGO — not a panic buy of outright calls, but a deliberate, cost-conscious structure that collects near-term premium to finance a longer-dated recovery bet. The choice to use a diagonal (rather than paying ≈$72.4M gross) is itself a signal: this desk is disciplined, expects the recovery to take time, and is using the July ITM short to reduce cost while staying long into Q3 earnings and the OpenAI XPU ramp.

What this trade tells us:

• 🎯 The June 3 selloff is being read as an opportunity by at least one sophisticated desk — they're betting on recovery, not further deterioration
• 📅 The October 16 expiry was chosen specifically to capture Q3 earnings (≈Sept 3–4) AND OCP Summit (Oct 12–15) — every major re-rating catalyst in the next 3.5 months
• 💰 The $410 target is a modest bar — only ≈11% above today, compared to sell-side targets of ≈$520 and an ATH of $480. This isn't a moonshot bet, it's a "get back to halfway-to-the-thesis" trade
• 🤖 The core fundamental bet: OpenAI/Anthropic/Meta XPU revenues flowing into Q3/Q4 2026 results will trigger the re-rating the June guide failed to deliver

If you're bullish on AVGO:

• ✅ The gamma data shows very strong support at $360 (15.14B GEX) and strong support at $370 (8.76B GEX) — the downside risk is well-defined
• 📅 Mark September 3–4 as the key date — Q3 earnings is when this bet either confirms or breaks
• 📊 The first technical confirmation of recovery: AVGO closing above the $380 Very Strong resistance wall (11.60B GEX) on meaningful volume

If you're watching from the sidelines:

• ✅ DONE (2026-06-30) — the $360 OI was checked at ≈06:30 ET: it fell (19,610 → 12,126, Δ −7,484), confirming a desk closing a prior long. That makes the package a bullish roll, not a fresh diagonal short — the long October $410 leg opened in full (OI 1,168 → 27,051).
• 🎯 Q3 earnings (≈Sept 3–4) is the next binary event — everything between now and then is noise around the $370 gamma zone
• 🔎 Watch $380 as the first technical tell — a sustained close above $380 suggests the recovery thesis is gaining traction in the broader market, not just in derivatives

Mark your calendar:

• ✅ June 30, 2026 — DONE — AVGO20260717C360 OI checked pre-market: CLOSE (OI 19,610 → 12,126, Δ −7,484). The long Oct $410 leg OPENED in full (1,168 → 27,051). Package = bullish roll up-and-out.
• 📅 July 17, 2026 — Short $360 leg expires — diagonal simplifies; watch how the short resolves
• 📅 September 3–4, 2026 — Q3 FY2026 earnings — the pivotal binary for the long $410 call
• 📅 October 12–15, 2026 — OCP Global Summit — potential AI-networking catalyst 4 days before expiry
• 📅 October 16, 2026 — Long $410 call expires — final verdict

Real talk: The diagonal structure is itself a form of discipline — this desk didn't just slap down ≈$72.4M on directional calls. They paid ≈$33.3M net, used elevated near-term implied volatility (±10.5% by July 17) to generate the credit, and structured the long-dated leg to capture every major catalyst in the fall window. Whether you agree with the thesis or not, the structural thoughtfulness here is worth noting. Broadcom's AI revenue trajectory is exceptional; the question is always whether the multiple is fair. At ≈$370 from a $481 ATH, this desk apparently thinks it is.

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The open/close status of the July $360 call leg has been RESOLVED by next-morning OPRA OI as a CLOSE (OI fell 19,610 → 12,126), making this package a bullish roll up-and-out rather than a fresh diagonal short. Diagonal spreads involve both long and short option legs with complex, non-linear risk profiles; the short $360 call is currently in the money and carries its own loss potential. Consult a licensed financial advisor before trading options.

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About Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies a broad range of semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The company operates in Semiconductor Solutions (custom AI accelerators/XPUs, AI networking switches and routers, broadband, wireless) and Infrastructure Software (mainframe, cybersecurity, and the VMware private-cloud portfolio). With a market cap of ≈$1.73 trillion and AI semiconductor revenue of $10.8B in a single quarter (Q2 FY2026, up 143% YoY), Broadcom is one of the central infrastructure suppliers of the AI buildout cycle.

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Last updated: 2026-06-30 — next-day OPRA OI resolved both open/close flags: long OPEN, short CLOSE (bullish roll). See ✅ RESOLVED box.